Small Craft Advisory 565, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

Jul 23, 2018, 3:00 PM AKDT (23:00 UTC)

Expired

Jul 24, 2018, 3:30 AM AKDT

In force

13 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

322 
FZAK51 PAFC 232300
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
300 PM AKDT Mon Jul 23 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-241130-
300 PM AKDT Mon Jul 23 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
High pressure retreats through the Southeast Gulf by Wed 
afternoon. A 1009 mb low over Sand Point extends a front over the
Northern Gulf with the trailing front extending through the 
Western Gulf Wed afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-241130-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
300 PM AKDT Mon Jul 23 2018

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ120-241130-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
300 PM AKDT Mon Jul 23 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ121-241130-
Resurrection Bay-
300 PM AKDT Mon Jul 23 2018

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ125-241130-
Prince William Sound-
300 PM AKDT Mon Jul 23 2018

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-241130-
Port Valdez-
300 PM AKDT Mon Jul 23 2018

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-241130-
Valdez Narrows-
300 PM AKDT Mon Jul 23 2018

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less 
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-241130-
Valdez Arm-
300 PM AKDT Mon Jul 23 2018

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-241130-
Passage Canal-
300 PM AKDT Mon Jul 23 2018

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-241130-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
300 PM AKDT Mon Jul 23 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ131-241130-
Barren Islands East-
300 PM AKDT Mon Jul 23 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ132-241130-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
300 PM AKDT Mon Jul 23 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ136-241130-
Chiniak Bay-
300 PM AKDT Mon Jul 23 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.

$$

PKZ137-241130-
Marmot Bay-
300 PM AKDT Mon Jul 23 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-241130-
Shelikof Strait-
300 PM AKDT Mon Jul 23 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ139-241130-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
300 PM AKDT Mon Jul 23 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft building to 5 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ140-241130-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
300 PM AKDT Mon Jul 23 2018

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 
3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-241130-
Kachemak Bay-
300 PM AKDT Mon Jul 23 2018

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Jul 23, 4:33 AM AKDT, 10 hours 27 minutes earlier.

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
433 AM AKDT Mon Jul 23 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The ridge axis has shifted eastward over Southeast Alaska and the
Yukon Territory. There is a longwave trough extending from the
Bering to the North Pacific/Eastern Gulf Of Alaska with multiple
shortwaves embedded in it. At the surface, there is an occluded
low just southwest of Kodiak and this system has brought cloudy
skies to the Anchorage Metro Area. There is a secondary decaying
low between the Pribilof Islands and the Aleutian Chain. Moisture
has advected into the AKPEN, Southwest and Southcentral. Showers
have been detected on the radars at Bethel, King Salmon and Kenai.
Additionally, this pattern has resulted in gap winds for portions
of the Alaska and Aleutian Ranges. Looking upstream, there is
another low southeast of Kamchatka.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The models are in good agreement through 72 hrs with the placement
of the main synoptic features which is reflected at the surface
and at 500 mb. There are minor timing differences with the waves
of precipitation but generally expecting broad and moist southwest
and southerly flow across southcentral.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...A cirrus deck and and an alto-cu layer have moved up Cook
Inlet and into the PANC aerodrome. VFR conditions are expected for
the ensuing 30 hr period. But there definitely is moisture
advecting towards PANC.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
While the upper level ridge has shifted eastward into western
Canada, subsidence and anticyclonic flow will persist over the
Copper River Basin the next couple days. This will maintain hot
and dry conditions. Meanwhile, a vertically stacked low over the
Bering Sea will drop south of the Alaska Peninsula on Tuesday,
with a plethora of upper waves rounding the low and crossing the
western Gulf, Kodiak Island and Kenai Peninsula. This will bring
periods of rain to the southern to Eastern Kenai Peninsula and
steady heavier rain to Kodiak Island. The persistent southeast
flow will keep the western Kenai mostly dry, though expect
scattered showers as short-waves move through. Areas north and
east of the Kenai Peninsula will see some mid to high clouds,
but remain dry.

As the upper level low/trough amplify over the north central
Pacific on Wednesday, this will build up the downstream ridge
and lead to strengthening southerly flow from the northeast
Pacific to Southcentral. This will drive short-waves inland
across Southcentral, leading to lowering clouds and increased
chances of showers or rain.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A few different stations in the heart of the Copper River Basin
(near Glennallen) reached red flag criteria yesterday. Today looks
very similar, with high temps just a few degrees cooler (with the
strongest portion of the upper ridge now to the east) and winds a
bit stronger with a more favorable surface ridge location. Thus,
confidence is high that critical fire weather conditions will
once again be met late this afternoon through early evening. On
Tuesday, expect increasing high clouds will be just enough to
produce marginally cooler/moister conditions, but conditions
may come close to red flag criteria once again.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (through Thursday morning)...
The active weather literally revolves around an eastern Bering
Sea stacked low pressure system. The second disturbance rounding
the upper level trough is rolling across the AKpen this morning,
and will continue to spread rain over mainly the Bristol Bay area
this morning. Rain will also spread into the southern Kuskokwim
Valley. The Kuskokwim Delta could see some light rain making it
over the mountains, but will largely remain downsloped and dry.
Behind the upper level disturbance, general easterly flow remains
which will continue to promote upslope precipitation along the
Wood River Mountains, along with several lesser disturbances
within the cyclonic flow aloft. That particular setup will promote
showers through Tuesday evening. Tuesday evening will see some
warmer air poking into the Kuskokwim Valley, which will bring
instability and the chance for thunderstorms from Sleetmute
northward. Yet another trough from the Bering Sea (now North
Pacific) storm, swings overhead on Wednesday. Showers will remain
in the forecast, mainly for Bristol Bay, with another chance for
thunder in the Valley. Expect above average temperatures and light
to moderate easterly winds through the period, with abundant cloud
cover.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
The low pressure over the eastern Bering will remain parked over
the area through the period. Widespread rain showers will slowly
taper off today, but linger through Thursday, mainly along the
Alaska Peninsula. A front over the Western Bering will keep rain
over the Western Aleutians/Bering through Wednesday before it
moves away. A very warm air mass will move into the Western Bering
behind this front, beginning today. The air mass will promote
widespread stratus and fog.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The longwave pattern beginning Wednesday is a longwave trough
extending through mainland Alaska and across the Alaska Peninsula
with a low anchoring the trough south of the Alaska Peninsula. On
either side of the trough is ridging with the stronger ridge to
the west. This setup should remain through the end of the week
which would bring southerly flow and rain to the southern
mainland with the majority of the rain along the north Gulf coast.
There is more uncertainty amongst the models heading toward the
weekend, but the general consensus is of a low flattening out the
ridge over the western Aleutians and tracking into the Bering. At
the same time the Alaska Peninsula low would diminish and ridging
over the eastern Gulf would intensify through the weekend.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PJS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SEB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MTL
LONG TERM...DK

Small Craft Advisories in Alaska, 2018Every small craft advisory in 2018

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.