Small Craft Advisory 52, NWS Anchorage, AK

555 
FZAK51 PAFC 181243
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
343 AM AKST Thu Jan 18 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-190200-
343 AM AKST Thu Jan 18 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 993 mb low 40 nm Southeast of Kodiak City moves to 65 nm South of 
Middleton Island at 1000 mb Sat morning.

$$

PKZ119-190200-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
343 AM AKST Thu Jan 18 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ120-190200-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
343 AM AKST Thu Jan 18 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming N 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ121-190200-
Resurrection Bay-
343 AM AKST Thu Jan 18 2018

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray after midnight.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray during the morning.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ125-190200-
Prince William Sound-
343 AM AKST Thu Jan 18 2018

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-190200-
Port Valdez-
343 AM AKST Thu Jan 18 2018

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ127-190200-
Valdez Narrows-
343 AM AKST Thu Jan 18 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 35 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ128-190200-
Valdez Arm-
343 AM AKST Thu Jan 18 2018

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ129-190200-
Passage Canal-
343 AM AKST Thu Jan 18 2018

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ130-190200-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
343 AM AKST Thu Jan 18 2018

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ131-190200-
Barren Islands East-
343 AM AKST Thu Jan 18 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt becoming NW 15 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ132-190200-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
343 AM AKST Thu Jan 18 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt except NW 15 kt N of Dangerous Cape. Seas
9 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ136-190200-
Chiniak Bay-
343 AM AKST Thu Jan 18 2018

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-190200-
Marmot Bay-
343 AM AKST Thu Jan 18 2018

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ138-190200-
Shelikof Strait-
343 AM AKST Thu Jan 18 2018

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-190200-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
343 AM AKST Thu Jan 18 2018

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ140-190200-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
343 AM AKST Thu Jan 18 2018

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters
2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt after
midnight. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2
ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas in ice free
waters 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-190200-
Kachemak Bay-
343 AM AKST Thu Jan 18 2018

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
445 AM AKST Wed Jan 17 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The large low that churned across the Gulf of Alaska yesterday has
been steadily weakening and the center of the storm is basically
directly overhead Kodiak Island as of this writing. The main
weather front has weakened and pushed into interior AK, leaving
behind numerous residual bands of rain showers that are impacting
Southcentral Alaska (primarily the coastlines). Southwest Alaska
is generally on the cold side of the storm, and is seeing periods
of wet snow falling along and west of a line from King Salmon to
Sleetmute. East of this line, precipitation is more intermittent
and is warm enough to fall as rain or patchy light freezing rain.

Meanwhile, way out west, a front has pushed through the western
Aleutians with rain and gale-force winds. The associated 981 mb low
pressure system is approaching Shemya Island, and this whole
system will be slowing down and weakening over the next 12-24
hours as high pressure begins to build in the Bering Sea.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

All models are in good agreement on the evolution of the major
features over the next few days. As a result, forecast confidence
is above average. A pattern change is on the horizon for all of
southern Alaska, transitioning to a cold and dry airmass for all
mainland locations.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light north winds will persist
throughout the period. Wind shear should increase by late this
morning as Southeast winds aloft approach the area and continue
through early evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

The low is centered over Kodiak Island this morning with a slow
moving secondary front along the north Gulf coast and stretching
into northern Cook Inlet. This continues to bring rain to the
coast and scattered rain showers inland. A few pockets of freezing
rain are possible this morning across southcentral Alaska in
areas where the temperature dropped just below freezing, but the
precipitation type is rain for the vast majority of the area as
temperatures have largely remained above freezing.

The rain should taper off today as the system weakens but
temperatures will remain warm over most of the area today before a
marked cooling begins tomorrow.

Patchy fog is likely to develop this morning in the Copper River
Basin as that area has largely cleared out this morning. The fog
will likely be in-and-out throughout most of the day for lower
elevations and some areas of low stratus may persist into the day
tomorrow.

The trend towards colder and drier conditions is still on track to
begin tomorrow as high pressure builds across the interior of the
state. This will shift winds to a northerly direction with outflow
winds developing along the north Gulf coast tomorrow and
increasing Friday. Kodiak is the outlier for the region as the
remnants of the low currently there will take a little longer to
clear out continuing the threat for some rain and snow showers
there through Thursday before becoming all snow showers Thursday
night.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
The low near Kodiak will continue to bring light snow to
southwest Alaska as it, and the snow, slowly diminishes into
Thursday. By Friday, most of the precip will be gone and cold
northerly flow will take its place bringing low temps below 0 F
Friday night. High pressure building in over the northern Bering
will help to keep the cold air and northerly winds coming.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
The low near the western Aleutians will slowly track east as it
swings its front through the Aleutians. The front will make it to
the eastern Aleutians Thursday morning where it will stall and
fall apart. Behind this system, another system will move towards
the western Aleutians from the North Pacific with its front making
it to the islands Friday night. Both of these systems are warm
enough to bring some rain to mix in with the snow, with the second
system being even warmer than the first.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
As advertised in the past couple of long term forecast
discussions, a major pattern shift is expected over most of
mainland Alaska this weekend and into next week. The upper level
pattern, which has been leading to warm and wet conditions over
southcentral, will migrate east this weekend with a high amplitude
upper level ridge setting up over the central Bering and an upper
level trough developing over central/eastern Alaska. This will
lead to strong northerly flow through the Bering Straight and over
SW Alaska which will advect in bitterly cold air down from the
arctic. The source of this cold air is currently bottled up over
northeastern Russia where temperatures in the Yakutia region this
week were recorded as low as -80 F.

Models all show this cold airmass being pulled south into western
Alaska by the end of the weekend, though significantly modified
by the time it reaches the region. Long range ensemble guidance
shows marginal odds of minimum temperatures across western and
interior portions of Alaska being in the bottom 15th percentile of
climatology, or in layman's terms, temperatures are likely to be
well below normal next week, though not quite to record levels.
Temperatures could drop into the -30's to -40's along interior
sections of SW Alaska, with sub zero temperatures reaching the
Bristol Bay Coast. This will be the coldest air of the season so
far and may be a shock to residents who have been getting used to
the near record warmth this winter. Luckily for residents of
southcentral, the coldest air will be blocked by the Alaska Range,
though temperatures will fall back to normal or slightly below
normal values by early next week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning 125 130 155 178
         Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 180 181 185

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...AMD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DWK
LONG TERM...KVP