Small Craft Advisory 503, NWS Anchorage, AK

437 
FZAK51 PAFC 282354
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
354 PM AKDT Thu Jun 28 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-291315-
354 PM AKDT Thu Jun 28 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A front in the central Gulf will move north and dissipate Fri 
afternoon. A trough of low pressure moves over the western Gulf 
Fri night through Sat. 

$$

PKZ119-291315-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
354 PM AKDT Thu Jun 28 2018

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ120-291315-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
354 PM AKDT Thu Jun 28 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ121-291315-
Resurrection Bay-
354 PM AKDT Thu Jun 28 2018

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming variable less than 10 kt by
midnight. Seas 3 ft subsiding to 1 ft. Rain.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-291315-
Prince William Sound-
354 PM AKDT Thu Jun 28 2018

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-291315-
Port Valdez-
354 PM AKDT Thu Jun 28 2018

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-291315-
Valdez Narrows-
354 PM AKDT Thu Jun 28 2018

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-291315-
Valdez Arm-
354 PM AKDT Thu Jun 28 2018

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable
less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain
showers.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-291315-
Passage Canal-
354 PM AKDT Thu Jun 28 2018

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-291315-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
354 PM AKDT Thu Jun 28 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt in the evening becoming 
variable 10 kt. Seas 8 ft subsiding to 5 ft. Rain.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ131-291315-
Barren Islands East-
354 PM AKDT Thu Jun 28 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt. Seas
6 ft. Near the Barren Islands...e winds 25 kt becoming s 15 kt. Seas
8 ft subsiding to 5 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ132-291315-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
354 PM AKDT Thu Jun 28 2018

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ136-291315-
Chiniak Bay-
354 PM AKDT Thu Jun 28 2018

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-291315-
Marmot Bay-
354 PM AKDT Thu Jun 28 2018

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ138-291315-
Shelikof Strait-
354 PM AKDT Thu Jun 28 2018

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ139-291315-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
354 PM AKDT Thu Jun 28 2018

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-291315-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
354 PM AKDT Thu Jun 28 2018

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SE 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-291315-
Kachemak Bay-
354 PM AKDT Thu Jun 28 2018

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less than 
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft building to 4 ft in the afternoon.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

197 
FZAK51 PAFC 291147
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
347 AM AKDT Fri Jun 29 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-300030-
347 AM AKDT Fri Jun 29 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1007 mb low 80 nm southeast of Middleton Island will dissipate 
over Prince William Sound Sat morning. High pressure will then 
build over the Gulf through Sun. 

$$

PKZ119-300030-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
347 AM AKDT Fri Jun 29 2018

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt, becoming SW 20 kt S of Middleton Island 
in the late afternoon. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ120-300030-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
347 AM AKDT Fri Jun 29 2018

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ121-300030-
Resurrection Bay-
347 AM AKDT Fri Jun 29 2018

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 10 kt 
in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 10 kt 
in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-300030-
Prince William Sound-
347 AM AKDT Fri Jun 29 2018

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt becoming E 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable 
less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. 
Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-300030-
Port Valdez-
347 AM AKDT Fri Jun 29 2018

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt 
in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable 
less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt 
in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-300030-
Valdez Narrows-
347 AM AKDT Fri Jun 29 2018

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 15 kt 
in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 15 kt 
in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-300030-
Valdez Arm-
347 AM AKDT Fri Jun 29 2018

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt 
in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt 
in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-300030-
Passage Canal-
347 AM AKDT Fri Jun 29 2018

.TODAY...E wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...E wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable 
less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-300030-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
347 AM AKDT Fri Jun 29 2018

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT AND SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ131-300030-
Barren Islands East-
347 AM AKDT Fri Jun 29 2018

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ132-300030-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
347 AM AKDT Fri Jun 29 2018

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ136-300030-
Chiniak Bay-
347 AM AKDT Fri Jun 29 2018

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.TONIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. 
Seas 2 ft or less.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-300030-
Marmot Bay-
347 AM AKDT Fri Jun 29 2018

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. 
Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ138-300030-
Shelikof Strait-
347 AM AKDT Fri Jun 29 2018

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SW after midnight. 
Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ139-300030-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
347 AM AKDT Fri Jun 29 2018

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind increasing to 20 kt during the evening. 
Seas building to 5 ft.
.SAT...S wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 2 ft building to 4 ft in the afternoon.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ140-300030-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
347 AM AKDT Fri Jun 29 2018

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind increasing to 15 kt during the evening. 
Seas building to 4 ft.
.SAT...S wind 10 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ141-300030-
Kachemak Bay-
347 AM AKDT Fri Jun 29 2018

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt 
in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable 
less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 15 kt 
in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft building to 4 ft in the afternoon.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
442 PM AKDT Wed Jun 27 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A vertically stacked low continues to turn and churn near the
Pribilof Islands this afternoon. A secondary low can be seen just
south of the Dutch Harbor area as well. The front associated with
the main low is stretching from the Pribilof Islands to over
Kodiak into the Gulf of Alaska. At the surface, the pre-frontal
ridging remains along the north Gulf coast which is causing gusty
south to southeast winds in the typical locations across
Southcentral Alaska (Turnagain Arm, Knik Valley and Copper River).
Most of the lee side of the mountains will remain downsloped with
the coastal areas receiving rain.

The atmosphere is convectively stable today across both
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska and therefore there will be
no thunderstorms in the area today or this evening.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models continue to be in good synoptic agreement at both surface
and upper levels. The biggest synoptic item is in the upper levels
on Thursday into Thursday evening over the Alaska Peninsula region
where the GFS ad NAM are quicker to make the developing low the
main low than the ECMWF or Canadian. This has the effect of
elongating the low from the eastern Aleutians across the entire
Alaska Peninsula where the EC and Canadian consolidate the low
center. The elongation of the low is a more reasonable solution
and these models were preferred in both eastern and western
areas. The good news is that the models converge again on a common
solution for this feature for Friday through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions will persist. Gusty southeast winds will
diminish after midnight but will return by mid-afternoon
Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
A pair of mid-level lows will continue to rotate around one
another in a Fujiwhara-like fashion, as they transition from the
central Bering Sea into the western Gulf by late Thursday night,
while consolidating. Additional disturbances (lobes of
vorticity/vort maxes) will continue to lift northward across
Southcentral, turning northwestward as the ride the edge of the
circulation around the Bering lows. Meanwhile, a surface front
lifting north tonight will slowly undergo frontolysis (the
weakening of a front), which will provide some surface
convergence. These features will interact with each other and
orographically driven effects to give most of the region a good
coverage of showers.

A relatively tight pressure gradient ahead of the front will allow
for gap winds to develop across Turnagain, the Knik River Valley,
and the Copper River Basin. Southeasterly flow will create the
usual down-slope/drying effects, mitigating inland precipitation
potential to some degree. However, weak instability seen in area
soundings may allow for some of these showers to make it into the
Anchorage Bowl and Mat-Su Valleys.

For Friday, the low will have moved to a position south of Kodiak
Island, with the weakening front making landfall along the coast.
Southeasterly flow and a weaker pressure gradient should help
mitigate any rain shadow effects, with showers likely surviving
the trip across the mountains. Additionally, the models do show
some possibility for easterly waves to cross the area from east to
west. This could give a boost to the precipitation potential,
especially for the interior valleys and locations. In general,
look for periodic rounds of precipitation to affect most locations
for the next few days.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Wednesday night through
Friday night)...
A somewhat stationary low pressure system over the Eastern Bering
with a front extending across the SW mainland will continue to
lead to cloudy, cool, and showery weather overnight. Gusty
easterly gap winds through the Alaska and Aleutian Ranges and
across Lake Iliamna will gradually subside through the day
tomorrow as the low weakens and drifts south. Scattered rain
showers will still be seen over the greater Bristol Bay area and
the Kuskokwim River Valley tomorrow as weak upper level
disturbances continue to spiral around the parent low. As the low
drifts south and east into the Gulf Of Alaska Friday, the thermal
trough will re-develop over the interior, nudging south into the
Middle Kuskokwim River Valley and the Upper Kuskokwim Delta
regions. This will allow convection to develop in the afternoon in
these areas, with the best chances for thunderstorms expected to
be Friday afternoon and evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2: Wednesday
and Thursday)...
A weak and slow moving low currently centered over the Pribilofs
will continue to bring cool, cloudy, and showery weather to the
eastern two-thirds of the Bering Sea and Aleutians overnight.
Fairly light winds will promote good sea states with the exception
of some small craft conditions over the Central Aleutians tonight
and tomorrow due to northerly winds on the backside of the low.
The low will drift south and east into the North Pacific and Gulf
of Alaska by Friday as an upper level ridge builds in over the
Western Bering Sea. This will promote a drying trend over the area
with light and variable winds, but as those experienced with
Bering Sea weather may know, summertime high pressure typically
results in widespread low stratus and fog, which will begin to
move in across the Western Aleutians and Bering by Thursday and
slowly spread east through the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
A transient pattern change is expected during the extended
forecast which sets the southern mainland and Gulf up for drier
and warmer conditions as we head into early next week. The
exception to this will be for the western Bering as the next north
Pacific low brings increasing chances for rain.

This weekend low pressure over the Alaska Peninsula slowly tracks
southeast. Isolated to scattered showers linger across the
southern mainland as short waves travel around the periphery of
the low. Monday and Tuesday is when the pattern change is
anticipated with models in better agreement on a ridging pattern
moving across the southern mainland from the Bering. Only minor
changes were made using a blend of the ensemble means for the
evolving synoptic shift over the Southern mainland and Gulf, with
the next organized low crossing over to the western Bering on Tuesday.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...PD
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KVP
LONG TERM...KH