Small Craft Advisory 459, NWS Anchorage, AK

949 
FZAK51 PAFC 112330
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
330 PM AKDT Mon Jun 11 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-121200-
330 PM AKDT Mon Jun 11 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1001 mb low 430 nm south of Sitkinak moves to 270 nm southwest
of Klawock at 1000 mb by Tue afternoon and then to 60 nm west of
Klawock at 1008 mb by Wed afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-121200-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
330 PM AKDT Mon Jun 11 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ120-121200-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
330 PM AKDT Mon Jun 11 2018

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming W 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 6 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ121-121200-
Resurrection Bay-
330 PM AKDT Mon Jun 11 2018

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt becoming variable late evening. Seas 2 ft. 
Rain showers.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable
less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-121200-
Prince William Sound-
330 PM AKDT Mon Jun 11 2018

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-121200-
Port Valdez-
330 PM AKDT Mon Jun 11 2018

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain 
showers.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-121200-
Valdez Narrows-
330 PM AKDT Mon Jun 11 2018

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TUE...N wind 10 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft. 
Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less 
than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-121200-
Valdez Arm-
330 PM AKDT Mon Jun 11 2018

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt becoming variable 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable
less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-121200-
Passage Canal-
330 PM AKDT Mon Jun 11 2018

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ130-121200-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
330 PM AKDT Mon Jun 11 2018

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming E 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ131-121200-
Barren Islands East-
330 PM AKDT Mon Jun 11 2018

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming W 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 5 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ132-121200-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
330 PM AKDT Mon Jun 11 2018

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ136-121200-
Chiniak Bay-
330 PM AKDT Mon Jun 11 2018

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-121200-
Marmot Bay-
330 PM AKDT Mon Jun 11 2018

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 10 kt becoming SW after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ138-121200-
Shelikof Strait-
330 PM AKDT Mon Jun 11 2018

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt becoming NE 15 kt by midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SW 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 2 ft building to 5 ft after midnight.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ139-121200-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
330 PM AKDT Mon Jun 11 2018

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft building to 5 ft after midnight.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-121200-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
330 PM AKDT Mon Jun 11 2018

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 2 ft building to 4 ft after midnight.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-121200-
Kachemak Bay-
330 PM AKDT Mon Jun 11 2018

.TONIGHT...SW 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
425 PM AKDT Sun Jun 10 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
Scattered showers remain over Southcentral and the Copper River
Basin as an upper level trough moves over the region. Gusty
conditions have been seen throughout Prince William Sound
associated with the weak shortwave. IR satellite shows the Arctic
trough starting to drop down further south from the North Slope
increasing cloud cover and northerly flow. Showers and warmer
temperatures remain ahead of the trough for central and eastern
Southcentral, but will result in drier, cooler conditions behind
this trough.

As for out west, high pressure builds over the Bering with
stratus and some fog for the area. Northerly offshore flow over
the mainland is bringing stable conditions. Yesterday's low that
brought rain to the central and eastern Aleutians is staying south
of the Chain resulting in dry conditions for the Aleutians today.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are in good consensus with timing and placement of the
Arctic trough as it moves south. The NAM's previous run was an
outlier, but the most recent run now seems to match up with other
models.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist. Some MVFR
conditions are possible later Monday morning, especially if the
rainfall tonight is fairly significant.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The strong upper level trough that has been pushing through
central Alaska will continue its southerly track across
Southcentral Alaska through the night bringing cooler air with it.
This trough will also bring widespread rain to areas around
Anchorage and the Talkeetna Mountains east through the Copper
River Basin. The heaviest rain will diminish through Monday but
some showers will linger through Tuesday, primarily over higher
elevations.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

A shift in the weather pattern is underway as a potent and highly
anomalous upper level trough plows south through the Alaska Range.
This will increase northerly winds through late this evening and
then again on Monday. This will allow for clearing skies and dry
weather to continue into the middle of next week. The trough will
eventually weaken and move southeast Tuesday so winds should
diminish from their peak values Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

The Bering Sea will continue to remain under the influence of high
pressure with a low pressure to the south over the North Pacific.
This will continue to promote a general east to northeast flow and
areas of sea stratus and some fog. The eastern Bering Sea may
actually clear out some with that clearing making it to the
Pribilof Islands sometime Tuesday as strong offshore flow moves
over the region in response to a digging Arctic trough over the
mainland. Otherwise, the weather will be seasonably normal with
winds less than 30 knots through the middle of the coming week.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
By Wednesday, much of southern Alaska will be located in a col
between a large upper level low centered over the Arctic Ocean,
another big upper low well south of the Aleutians and weaker
ridging to the east and west. A trough stretching from the
northern to southeastern Gulf will weaken rapidly and dissipate as
a low to the south swings east and inland into British Columbia.
The Arctic low will dig south into northwestern Alaska Thursday
and Friday, while the North Pacific low lifts up towards the
eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula. In comparison to
yesterday, all the models have shifted further west with the track
of this southern low with the GFS remaining the furthest east
solution. Currently there is a roughly 500 mile surface low
position difference by Saturday morning, but all models are still
in good agreement with regards to a significant pattern shift to
wetter, southerly flow for Friday through Sunday and likely
continuing into next week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...AH/BL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JA
LONG TERM...JR