Small Craft Advisory 441, NWS Anchorage, AK

109 
FZAK51 PAFC 040633 CCA
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
1033 PM AKDT Sun Jun 3 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-041300-
1033 PM AKDT Sun Jun 3 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

High pressure builds across the Gulf through Tue afternoon. A 
front approaches the western Gulf for Tue afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-041300-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
1033 PM AKDT Sun Jun 3 2018

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ120-041300-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
1033 PM AKDT Sun Jun 3 2018

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ121-041300-
Resurrection Bay-
1033 PM AKDT Sun Jun 3 2018

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-041300-
Prince William Sound-
1033 PM AKDT Sun Jun 3 2018

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 10 kt becoming E after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-041300-
Port Valdez-
1033 PM AKDT Sun Jun 3 2018

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-041300-
Valdez Narrows-
1033 PM AKDT Sun Jun 3 2018

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less than 
10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SW wind 20 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-041300-
Valdez Arm-
1033 PM AKDT Sun Jun 3 2018

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW wind 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-041300-
Passage Canal-
1033 PM AKDT Sun Jun 3 2018

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 kt becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-041300-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
1033 PM AKDT Sun Jun 3 2018

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ131-041300-
Barren Islands East-
1033 PM AKDT Sun Jun 3 2018

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ132-041300-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
1033 PM AKDT Sun Jun 3 2018

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ136-041300-
Chiniak Bay-
1033 PM AKDT Sun Jun 3 2018

.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...S wind 10 kt becoming SE 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-041300-
Marmot Bay-
1033 PM AKDT Sun Jun 3 2018

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SE 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-041300-
Shelikof Strait-
1033 PM AKDT Sun Jun 3 2018

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ139-041300-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
1033 PM AKDT Sun Jun 3 2018

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft.
.MON...SW wind 10 kt becoming S 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft after
midnight.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ140-041300-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
1033 PM AKDT Sun Jun 3 2018

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt becoming S 10 kt after midnight. Seas 4
ft.
.MON...SW wind 10 kt becoming S 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft after
midnight.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ141-041300-
Kachemak Bay-
1033 PM AKDT Sun Jun 3 2018

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less 
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft building to 4 ft in the afternoon.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
446 AM AKDT Sun Jun 3 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
Ridging in the Gulf of Alaska, a front over the AK Peninsula and
low pressure in the Bering Sea are the main features to note
today. Ridging in the northern Gulf has promoted clearer skies and
warming temperatures in Southcentral Alaska. Gusty gap winds
through the typical terrain like Turnagain Arm have also been
observed due to the ridging and a packed pressure gradient along
the Gulf coast. A north to northeasterly flow pattern has enhanced
convective activity in the Copper River Basin into Eagle River
where thunderstorms popped up last evening. This riding is also
acting as a blocking mechanism for a front which is stalled over
the AK Peninsula. This occluding front, stemming from a dying low
in the western Bering, has produced rain over the Aleutians and
western AK Coast. The jet stream has shifted well below the
Aleutian Islands which is allowing the low pressure in the Bering
to start the filling process. While the first low is dissipating,
a second Kamchatka low is right on its heels moving toward the
western Aleutians.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The models are in good agreement with the main synoptic features
through the mid term. However, they are struggling with timing of
some of the shortwaves moving through the pattern. One in
particular will have impact on convection for Southcentral Alaska
Monday afternoon. This feature will move from east to west across
the area Monday. The GFS is the fastest while the NAM is the
slowest with the EC in between.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions are expected to persist through the forecast
period. Gusty southeast winds off Turnagain Arm will continue to
diminish through the morning before picking up again this
afternoon from a southwest direction with the seabreeze. Winds
will then diminish this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
An upper level ridge extends out of the Interior of the state
through Southcentral Alaska today. A shortwave is rotating
southward just east of the ridge axis which is bringing some
showers to the Prince William Sound region this morning. The
atmosphere over most of Southcentral is more stable than yesterday
which should limit any potential afternoon showers. The exception
is the Copper River Basin where colder temperatures aloft are
keeping the atmosphere unstable again today. Any thunderstorms
should be limited to right along the Alaska Range.

Tomorrow is a different story as the upper level flow becomes due
east over the area. This will allow an easterly wave to move out
of the Yukon and into the Copper River Basin Monday morning and
then propagate into the Susitna Valley Monday afternoon and early
evening. This will also bring a chance of showers southward into
the Anchorage area and Kenai Peninsula as well. The Susitna Valley
may see some thunderstorms in association with this wave as there
will be enough daytime heating to provide initial lift and then
the dynamics with the wave may be enough to set off the
thunderstorms.

One last item of interest that could throw a significant wrench in
the works for Monday night into Tuesday is the threat of a marine
layer pushing up Cook Inlet. The marine layer may be enough to
bring a thick layer of stratus all the way up to near Anchorage
Tuesday, but would like to see the presence of marine stratus in
the lower Inlet by Monday afternoon if that is going to happen.
Did not include any stratus in the latest forecast package but it
will be something to look for over the next day or so.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The front arriving along the coast this morning will signal cooler
and cloudier conditions for the bulk of the southwest mainland
today as southeast flow spreads across the region. Rain will
largely be confined to the Kuskokwim Delta and portions of
Bristol Bay as the front stalls out and weakens along the coast.
Some diurnal convective activity will remain possible along the
Alaska Range where modest instability is expected to develop
during the afternoon and evening hours. Warmer conditions will
return on Monday as broad easterly flow is established over
southern Alaska, with an easterly wave bringing the potential for
more stratiform rain to Southwest AK Monday night into Tuesday
morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
A potent shortwave dropping out of Kamchatka this morning will
track across the southern Bering through Monday evening, spreading
rain and gusty winds across the Aleutian chain from west to east.
As the wave moves to the east it will serve to enhance the
decaying front along the southwest coast, keeping more robust
precipitation along the Akpen through late Monday. The region
will then settle into a benign showery pattern for the early part
of the week as the longwave trough over the western Bering shifts
to the vicinity of the Aleutians.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The long term forecast starting Monday night through Tuesday will
be a slow transition with low pressure over the Bering broadening
its coverage by flattening out and merging with the Gulf low as a
ridge builds across the northern mainland. The broad low lacks
organization which keeps fairly benign weather across the southern
mainland and surrounding waters during this time.

Chances for rain increase across the Gulf and inland locations
Wednesday through Friday as low pressure organizes with a new
closed low forming over the eastern Gulf. A few afternoon and
evening thunderstorms, especially along the mountains, will also
be possible with greater instability during peak heating. To the
west, ridging builds across the Bering from Kamchatka keeping a
relatively quiet pattern through the end of the week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RA/DK
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CB
LONG TERM...KH