Small Craft Advisory 362, NWS Anchorage, AK

457 
FZAK51 PAFC 050000
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
400 PM AKDT Fri May 4 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-051315-
400 PM AKDT Fri May 4 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A front begins to track inland along the northern Gulf Coast and 
into the Eastern Gulf for Sat afternoon. Weak ridging edges into the 
Western Gulf by Sun afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-051315-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
400 PM AKDT Fri May 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Gusts to 35 kt near the coast in the evening.
Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ120-051315-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
400 PM AKDT Fri May 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ121-051315-
Resurrection Bay-
400 PM AKDT Fri May 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
5 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight. Widespread rain and snow
showers.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Widespread rain and snow showers.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-051315-
Prince William Sound-
400 PM AKDT Fri May 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt in the early evening. Seas 6 ft.
Rain.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-051315-
Port Valdez-
400 PM AKDT Fri May 4 2018

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SAT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-051315-
Valdez Narrows-
400 PM AKDT Fri May 4 2018

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-051315-
Valdez Arm-
400 PM AKDT Fri May 4 2018

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-051315-
Passage Canal-
400 PM AKDT Fri May 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt Diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts to
35 kt in the evening. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-051315-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
400 PM AKDT Fri May 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...E wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ131-051315-
Barren Islands East-
400 PM AKDT Fri May 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...E wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ132-051315-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
400 PM AKDT Fri May 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ136-051315-
Chiniak Bay-
400 PM AKDT Fri May 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-051315-
Marmot Bay-
400 PM AKDT Fri May 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ138-051315-
Shelikof Strait-
400 PM AKDT Fri May 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ139-051315-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
400 PM AKDT Fri May 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ140-051315-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
400 PM AKDT Fri May 4 2018

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-051315-
Kachemak Bay-
400 PM AKDT Fri May 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

304 
FZAK51 PAFC 051140
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
340 AM AKDT Sat May 5 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-060030-
340 AM AKDT Sat May 5 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A front continues to move along the north Gulf coast and into the
Eastern Gulf through this afternoon. High pressure will be over the
Gulf tonight through Sunday night.

$$

PKZ119-060030-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
340 AM AKDT Sat May 5 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ120-060030-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
340 AM AKDT Sat May 5 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt by late morning. Seas 11 
ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ121-060030-
Resurrection Bay-
340 AM AKDT Sat May 5 2018

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
4 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight. Rain showers.
.SUN...S wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3
ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-060030-
Prince William Sound-
340 AM AKDT Sat May 5 2018

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-060030-
Port Valdez-
340 AM AKDT Sat May 5 2018

.TODAY...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain and snow showers.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-060030-
Valdez Narrows-
340 AM AKDT Sat May 5 2018

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow and rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain and snow showers.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-060030-
Valdez Arm-
340 AM AKDT Sat May 5 2018

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers and
snow showers.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-060030-
Passage Canal-
340 AM AKDT Sat May 5 2018

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-060030-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
340 AM AKDT Sat May 5 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...E wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ131-060030-
Barren Islands East-
340 AM AKDT Sat May 5 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...E wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ132-060030-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
340 AM AKDT Sat May 5 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ136-060030-
Chiniak Bay-
340 AM AKDT Sat May 5 2018

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ137-060030-
Marmot Bay-
340 AM AKDT Sat May 5 2018

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ138-060030-
Shelikof Strait-
340 AM AKDT Sat May 5 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ139-060030-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
340 AM AKDT Sat May 5 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ140-060030-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
340 AM AKDT Sat May 5 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-060030-
Kachemak Bay-
340 AM AKDT Sat May 5 2018

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
441 PM AKDT Thu May 3 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The persistence of the upper-level low in the Bering Sea and its
frequent surface waves remain the focus for Southcentral and
Southwest Alaska this period.

One shortwave is moving over the Northern Gulf this afternoon. A
stronger wave is passing over the Alaska Peninsula heading for the
Western Gulf. This second wave will be the one to watch for the
potential of stronger gusts along the Upper Hillside.

This wave also connects subtropical moisture to the Northern
Gulf Coast. While the weather pattern remains in motion, limiting
the potential for a fall-like atmospheric river event in this
region, it will certainly be wet in most of Prince William Sound.

A special weather statement is posted for these issues.

Looking west to the main driver of the pattern, the surface low
continues to weaken as it moves north over the Kuskokwim Valley.
Low-level turbulence will remain a concern for aviators through
the short-term period while low ceilings will remain a part of the
longer-range forecast into the weekend and next week.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models remain in good agreement with the placement and track of
the low over Southwest Alaska. Upper-level features and timing are
also in good agreement through 48 hours. The next low approaching
the Aleutians into Sunday has some disparity between the major
models with the GFS being the strongest and fastest of the
solutions.

The NAM was the preferred model over Southcentral for wind
details. Southwest and the Bering Sea Coast regions preferred the
GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC... Regular shifts in winds should be expected in the next 24
hours as the approaching upper-level wave sets up a faster, gusty
Turnagain Arm wind beginning midday Friday. Low-level wind shear
will develop Friday morning before the onset of gusty southeast
winds across the airport complex late Friday afternoon.
Showers will be minimal, with ceilings and visibility holding at
VFR criteria.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The surface front will begin to push further inland this evening,
with the bulk of precipitation remaining along the Gulf coast.
Strong easterly to southeasterly cross-barrier flow will continue
to limit precipitation for the typical downsloped areas on the
lee-side of the Chugach mountains. Winds and rain will briefly
diminish during the overnight hours as the system dissipates, then
pick back up in Friday morning as the stronger system approaches
the area.

A rapidly deepening surface low will cross the Alaska Peninsula
into the southwest Mainland at about 970 mb Friday morning,
increasing the pressure gradient over Southcentral Alaska. This
will cause winds across the area to increase Friday, especially
along the Upper Hillside and through gaps in the terrain such as
Turnagain Arm. This system has a strong tap of subtropical
moisture, which will push into Kodiak Island late tonight, and
then to the Kenai Peninsula Friday morning. The bulk of the
moisture will then slide slowly east, with most of rain falling
from Prince William Sound eastward on Friday night. A fairly
intact front will push through inland portions of Southcentral
Friday afternoon and evening, and most inland locations will see
some precipitation.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Low pressure along the eastern Bering pushes the current front
along coastal Bristol Bay through the Kuskokwim this evening. The
next developing surface low just south of the eastern Aleutians
pushes the next front across the Alaska Peninsula tonight. This
low deepens to 970 mb as the upper low advances and it becomes
stacked on a northward track across Bristol Bay waters Friday
afternoon. Gusty North to east winds develop across Bristol Bay
tonight with strong flow continuing through Friday night. Winds
increase across the Kuskokwim Delta and Valley Friday afternoon as
the low center nears the coast.

The storm system slowly fills as it continues north Friday night
through Saturday. Winds taper down in response with a shift to the
south as the low center moves north of the Kuskokwim Saturday
night. Rain will continue through the weekend as waves of energy
rotate around the core of the low; however, precipitation becomes
less organized on Sunday with the storm system nearing the Seward
Peninsula.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
The storms system across the Bering moves east into Friday
pulling much colder air toward the Aleutians. Gale force winds are
expected across the Bering through Friday as the storm system
organizes and becomes a stacked system over Bristol Bay during
the afternoon. Winds taper down Friday night as the storm system
lifts north across the Southwest mainland and weakens. The next
front moves up from the North Pacific and pushes into the western
Aleutians late Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7...Sun through Thu)...
Once the remnants of the slowly moving low through the Southwest
mainland and associated atmospheric river along the Gulf Coast,
the focus for the long term forecast into early next week will
shift to the building ridge in the Yukon Territory. This ridge
will begin to build into the Eastern Mainland on Monday, however
it will struggle to reach as far west as Southcentral as a deep,
broad and nearly stationary trough sets up near the Pribilof
Islands. This setup will act to amplify the upper level pattern,
and leave a majority of the South Mainland under the influence of
a deep southerly jet into the middle of next week. As a result
there doesn't look to be a significant break to the cloudy and
rainy pattern, especially for the Gulf Coast, though temperatures
will begin to closer to normal as freezing levels rise in the
southerly flow. This should at least provide enough warm air to
cause much of the late season snowfall that has occurred recently
in the low elevations to switch over to rain.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Flood Advisory 152, Flood Watch 155.
MARINE...Gales 130-132 138 150 155 170-174 179-181 185 352 414.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...TP
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KH
LONG TERM...DEK