Small Craft Advisory 348, NWS Anchorage, AK

502 
FZAK51 PAFC 292351
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
351 PM AKDT Sun Apr 29 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-301230-
351 PM AKDT Sun Apr 29 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A front in the central Gulf moves into the southeastern Gulf Mon
morning. A second front enters the southwestern Gulf Mon 
afternoon and moves into the northeastern Gulf Mon afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-301230-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
351 PM AKDT Sun Apr 29 2018

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 7 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ120-301230-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
351 PM AKDT Sun Apr 29 2018

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ121-301230-
Resurrection Bay-
351 PM AKDT Sun Apr 29 2018

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Rain.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-301230-
Prince William Sound-
351 PM AKDT Sun Apr 29 2018

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming E 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3
ft. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-301230-
Port Valdez-
351 PM AKDT Sun Apr 29 2018

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain and
snow.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow with rain.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-301230-
Valdez Narrows-
351 PM AKDT Sun Apr 29 2018

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain and
snow.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW wind 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow with
rain.
.TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-301230-
Valdez Arm-
351 PM AKDT Sun Apr 29 2018

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-301230-
Passage Canal-
351 PM AKDT Sun Apr 29 2018

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft. Snow.
.MON...W wind 10 kt becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-301230-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
351 PM AKDT Sun Apr 29 2018

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ131-301230-
Barren Islands East-
351 PM AKDT Sun Apr 29 2018

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ132-301230-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
351 PM AKDT Sun Apr 29 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ136-301230-
Chiniak Bay-
351 PM AKDT Sun Apr 29 2018

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ137-301230-
Marmot Bay-
351 PM AKDT Sun Apr 29 2018

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SW wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt becoming W 15 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ138-301230-
Shelikof Strait-
351 PM AKDT Sun Apr 29 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ139-301230-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
351 PM AKDT Sun Apr 29 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-301230-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
351 PM AKDT Sun Apr 29 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ141-301230-
Kachemak Bay-
351 PM AKDT Sun Apr 29 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

628 
FZAK51 PAFC 301137
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
337 AM AKDT Mon Apr 30 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-010015-
337 AM AKDT Mon Apr 30 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A weak trough in the northern Gulf moves to the eastern Gulf 
tonight. A front enters the western Gulf tonight and reaches the 
eastern Gulf Tue night.

$$

PKZ119-010015-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
337 AM AKDT Mon Apr 30 2018

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ120-010015-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
337 AM AKDT Mon Apr 30 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ121-010015-
Resurrection Bay-
337 AM AKDT Mon Apr 30 2018

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ125-010015-
Prince William Sound-
337 AM AKDT Mon Apr 30 2018

.TODAY...SE wind 10 kt. Gusts to 20 kt in the morning. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-010015-
Port Valdez-
337 AM AKDT Mon Apr 30 2018

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow with rain.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-010015-
Valdez Narrows-
337 AM AKDT Mon Apr 30 2018

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW wind 10 kt in
the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow with rain.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-010015-
Valdez Arm-
337 AM AKDT Mon Apr 30 2018

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-010015-
Passage Canal-
337 AM AKDT Mon Apr 30 2018

.TODAY...W wind 10 kt becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ130-010015-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
337 AM AKDT Mon Apr 30 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ131-010015-
Barren Islands East-
337 AM AKDT Mon Apr 30 2018

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ132-010015-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
337 AM AKDT Mon Apr 30 2018

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ136-010015-
Chiniak Bay-
337 AM AKDT Mon Apr 30 2018

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ137-010015-
Marmot Bay-
337 AM AKDT Mon Apr 30 2018

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ138-010015-
Shelikof Strait-
337 AM AKDT Mon Apr 30 2018

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ139-010015-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
337 AM AKDT Mon Apr 30 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-010015-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
337 AM AKDT Mon Apr 30 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ141-010015-
Kachemak Bay-
337 AM AKDT Mon Apr 30 2018

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
430 PM AKDT Sat Apr 28 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
Fairly fast zonal flow continues over the Bering Sea and southern
Alaska. There is an upper level trough along about 155 degrees
west longitude. A surface low associated with this trough is
centered over the Kuskokwim Delta and in the process of
dissipating. Another surface low is forming over Kodiak Island at
the triple point. The main front with this trough is over the
western Gulf of Alaska and extends into Southcentral. There is
weak ridging over the eastern Bering. A strong and deepening low
is over the southwest Bering and moving rapidly towards the
northeast. The leading front is negatively tilted and approaching
the Pribilofs and eastern Aleutians.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The numerical models are in fairly good agreement through the
short term portion of the forecast (Monday afternoon). The models
have settled on a solution for the low crossing the Bering through
Sunday night and reaching the Seward Peninsula Monday afternoon.
The exception is the Canadian model, which has a faster and
further south solution compared to the other guidance. Forecast
confidence is a little above normal today.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions will persist. Breezy southerly winds are
expected through Sunday evening, generally stronger in the
afternoon/evening hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Wet and windy conditions will persist over a good portion of
southcentral through early next week, as the active pattern
continues over southcentral Alaska. The weakening low tracking
northeast over the Kuskokwim Delta will rapidly dissipate, as a
weak triple point low develops near Kodiak Island this evening.
This newly developed low and lingering frontal system will
continue to keep the bulk of precipitation and gusty winds along
the northern Gulf coast through Sunday. Warmer air will accompany
this system, so lower elevations not shadowed by cross- barrier
flow will trend toward rain. That said, higher elevations and
northern valley sections will likely see some snow or mixed
precipitation through Monday, specifically across the northern
Susitna Valley, higher elevations along the Copper River Basin,
and along the Chugach and Talkeetna mountains.

Strong gusts are expected pick up along Turnagain Arm, Knik River
Valley, and along the Copper River early this evening then
diminish slightly overnight. Winds pick back up again late Sunday
morning through Sunday night. Winds in many areas will peak in
the late afternoon to early evening hours Sunday before
diminishing Sunday night. Winds will slowly diminish into Monday
morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2...Sun and Mon)...
Active weather will continue as we move into next week. For this
evening, the last vestiges of an upper level trough will continue
to produce some light rain and snow showers, primarily over
interior portions along the Alaskan and Aleutians Ranges. Some
patchy fog will also linger across the area through the evening
with onshore flow. By early Sun morning, the next front is already
on the door step ready to bring another round of rain to Southwest
AK. This front will bring another round of mild air with gusty
southwest winds. As it sweeps quickly to the east by Sun
afternoon, steady precipitation will come to an end. The parent
low will trail over the north-central Bering into Mon. This will
serve to pull some significantly colder air into the area. 850mb
(5,000') temperatures will drop from near 0C to near -8C by Mon
morning. This cold air combined with moist southwest flow will
help to excite some instability Mon afternoon. The end result will
be widespread snow showers.

The broad trough over the Eastern Bering to start the week will
lead to long-duration moderate to strong southwest to west flow.
As this flow continues to act on the waters, it will help to build
a potent surge near the West Coast. An SPS has been issued to
address this potential hazard.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2...Sun and
Mon)...
The Bering will continue to give birth to several robust storms. A
low currently moving north of the Western Aleutians will deepen to
approximately 975 mb as it tracks towards St. Matthew Island by
Sun morning. It will sling a warm front through the Aleutians
tonight and into the Alaska Peninsula early Sun morning. As this
low deepens, a swath of storm-force westerly winds will develop
on its southern flank Sun. Behind the front, the upper-level jet
and cold air advection will allow gusty westerly winds to envelop
the whole area.

Monday another piece of energy drops down the western side of the
low. This will serve to consolidate the snow showers and drive
them from NW to SE through the Pribilofs. Then by Mon afternoon,
yet another (much weaker) low is taking shape near the Western
Aleutians. This will track towards the Central Bering into Tue and
serve to keep the pattern quiet active.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7: Tuesday through Saturday)...

The largely east to west weather pattern currently ongoing across
Alaska will continue for the start of the long-term forecast
through the first week of May. A weak low over the central Bering
Tuesday morning will quickly track eastward and move into Bristol
Bay by Wednesday morning. While the surface energy dissipates,
the upper level energy will continue into Southcentral, resulting
in Wednesday afternoon showers for much of the area. Meanwhile,
another stronger low strengthens across the central Bering
Wednesday evening. This low will flip the pattern to a more
amplified one, which in turn will result in the weather remaining
more consistent day-to-day going into the weekend.

While there are large model differences in the details, such as
where precipitation will be or how strong the low or trough will
be for example, the one consistency between the models is that the
low or deep trough anchors itself along the Bering coast of
Southwest Alaska. That would keep Southwest Alaska continuously
chilly and unstable from Thursday onward. For Southcentral, the
weather will be somewhat warmer, but cloudy and wet as continuous
southerly flow off the Gulf keeps a steady stream of moisture
moving into the area. The wet pattern would be quite unusual for
this time of year given that this is typically the dry season.
Strong ridging builds over the western Bering by Saturday which
will further amplify and slow down the pattern.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...
GALE...173 174 175 176 177 178 179 180 181

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...TP
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MO
LONG TERM...JW