Small Craft Advisory 232, NWS Anchorage, AK

796 
FZAK52 PAFC 201200
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
400 AM AKDT Tue Mar 20 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-210045-
400 AM AKDT Tue Mar 20 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A front approaching the western Bering moves through the central 
Bering and Aleutians through Thu morning.

$$

PKZ150-210045-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
400 AM AKDT Tue Mar 20 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ155-210045-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
400 AM AKDT Tue Mar 20 2018

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt except NW 20 kt from the Shumagin
Islands E. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ160-210045-
Bristol Bay-
400 AM AKDT Tue Mar 20 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt becoming W after midnight. Seas in ice
free waters 5 ft. Patchy freezing fog.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft. Patchy freezing fog.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.

$$

PKZ165-210045-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
400 AM AKDT Tue Mar 20 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. From Port Moller E, W wind 20 kt in
the morning becoming variable 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt except variable 10 kt from Port Moller E.
Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt except E 15 kt from Port Moller E. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ170-210045-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
400 AM AKDT Tue Mar 20 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...W wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ171-210045-
Unalaska Bay-
400 AM AKDT Tue Mar 20 2018

.TODAY...SE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-210045-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
400 AM AKDT Tue Mar 20 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...W wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ173-210045-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
400 AM AKDT Tue Mar 20 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...W wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ174-210045-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
400 AM AKDT Tue Mar 20 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...W wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ175-210045-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
400 AM AKDT Tue Mar 20 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...W wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ176-210045-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
400 AM AKDT Tue Mar 20 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ177-210045-
Adak to Kiska-
400 AM AKDT Tue Mar 20 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...W wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ178-210045-
Kiska to Attu-
400 AM AKDT Tue Mar 20 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. Snow showers and rain
showers.
.WED...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...W wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ179-210045-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
400 AM AKDT Tue Mar 20 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ180-210045-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
400 AM AKDT Tue Mar 20 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas in
ice free waters 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft. Patchy
freezing fog.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.THU...S wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.

$$

PKZ181-210045-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
400 AM AKDT Tue Mar 20 2018

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt.
.THU...S wind 40 kt.
.FRI...S wind 15 kt.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt.

$$

PKZ185-210045-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
400 AM AKDT Tue Mar 20 2018

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...S 30 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft building to 18 ft after
midnight. Rain showers.
.WED...S wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
535 AM AKDT Mon Mar 19 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A cold front racing eastward across Southern Alaska right now is
the primary weather maker around the area. Ahead of the front,
conditions remain relatively mild, with areas such as Anchorage,
Palmer, and points south remaining all rain early this morning.
Further north in the Susitna Valley, light snow is being reported
in Talkeetna. Behind the front, much cooler mid-level air is
racing into Southwest Alaska, bringing with it some patchy fog.
Over the Bering, a much more unstable weather regime has set up
resulting in widespread cumulus across the region. The timing of
when the cold air gets to Anchorage will be critical in
determining if morning commuters are dealing with precipitation
that is wet or white.

In the upper levels, the aforementioned surface cold front is
accompanied by a strong jet, which is the reason it is moving so
quickly. The frontal passage will result in a pattern change over
all of Southern Alaska from the warm and wet pattern with upper
level ridging that we have been experiencing, to becoming a cold
and dry one with the dominant upper level feature influencing the
area becoming a trough.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

The models remain in very good agreement through the next couple
days. Diminishing forecast uncertainty remains for the rest of
this morning as to whether or not the cold air reaches
Southcentral in time to change the areas seeing rain over to snow.
Behind the front, cold air draining through all of the gaps will
result in strong gap winds, and some uncertainty remains as to how
strong the winds and gusts will get. However, with a simpler
cold, dry pattern imminent across Southern Alaska this morning,
forecast confidence is above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC... Steady rain this morning is causing MVFR conditions. Later
this morning, a possible changeover to snow may cause brief
periods of IFR conditions, along with gusty winds. By this
afternoon, the precipitation will clear, returning conditions back
to VFR, though gusty west to southwest winds will persist into the
evening. Several days of VFR conditions are expected through much
of the upcoming workweek as the pattern turns markedly drier.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
An upper level trough moving over the South Mainland will bring
continued precipitation from the Kenai Peninsula northward before
all areas quickly clear out over the course of this afternoon. The
primary forecast challenge will however be determining
precipitation type, especially around Anchorage and the Matanuska
Valley this morning. Southeasterly winds along the Chugach Range
overnight have kept temperatures warm enough to bring just rain
to the area overnight, however as this wind diminishes and cooler
air moves back into the area, this is expected to transition to a
wet snow for a few hours this morning. This will mostly likely
occur during the morning commando, which may be heavy times,
however due to the warm temperatures and short duration of the
snow most areas should see less than inch of accumulation. Further
north over the Susitna Valley temperatures have remained cold
enough for just snow, but too warm from Talkeetna southward to
bring significant accumulations. As a result the snow advisory
remains until noon today, however just for areas north of
Talkeetna. This wave will quickly race over Southcentral today,
which should allow any snow that develops to end with clearing
skies in time for the afternoon commute.

The focus then shifts to the strong pressure gradient and cold air
advection that sets up behind the upper level low, which is still
expected to bring gale force winds to most of the Gulf with strong
outflow winds along the North Gulf Coast through Tuesday. The
strongest winds are still expected to occur in the Valdez/Thompson
Pass area where gusts up to 60 mph are possible as the strongest
core of winds push through on Tuesday. Without a strong cold dome
to pull from in the Copper River Basin, there is good confidence
that these winds should remain below warning level through
Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

There are a few lingering showers on the King Salmon radar (PAKC)
and none on the Bethel radar (PABC). The latest metars at Iliamna
and Sparrevohn have been detecting snow this morning. With an
abundance of low level moisture, patchy fog will be possible this
morning for portions of Southwest. The GFS and the NAM both ping
into another shot of moisture today for the Kuskokwim Delta but
the southern half of Southwest looks a tad drier. A dome of high
pressure will build in from the Eastern Aleutians. With widespread
subsidence in place expecting dry conditions on Tuesday and into
Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

At the surface, the remnants of a low near St. Matthew Island will
continue to decay and drift eastward.  A dome of high pressure
will build over the North Pacific and the Aleutians resulting in a
gradual warming trend with locations along the chain getting
above 40F. A new low is developing near Kamchatka and it is
projected to hug the peninsula bringing another round of gales to
Attu Island and Shemya as well as the Western Bering. The jet core
steering this low is projected to have the strength of 130+
knots. Anticipating gusty winds and rough seas beginning Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The long term begins with ridging dominating the southern mainland
with the axis along the west coast. This setup leads to outflow
winds along the north Gulf coast which is supported by a shortwave
moving through the area. Behind the ridging is a front over the
western Bering. Both features will track east through Saturday
when the front finally makes it over Southcentral Alaska. The
pattern will become more active following the departure of the
ridging with a new system moving into the Bering Saturday. The
models are in decent agreement through early portions of the long
term but struggle further out in time leading to ensembles being
preferred later on in the forecast period over the deterministic
solutions.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory 145.
MARINE...Gales 178 185 119 120 121 127 128 130 131 132 351
352 411 412.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JW
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DEK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PJS
LONG TERM...DK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1045 AM AKDT MON MAR 19 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1024 AM     SNOW             1 SE SUTTON             61.71N 148.87W
03/19/2018  M5.0 INCH                           AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SNOW PAST SIX HOURS. SNOW STILL FALLING.

&&

KUTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1244 PM AKDT MON MAR 19 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 AM     SNOW             9 NNW CHASE             62.56N 150.23W
03/19/2018  M2.0 INCH                           AK   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

0643 AM     SNOW             29 SW CANTWELL          63.06N 149.55W
03/19/2018  M8.0 INCH                           AK   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

1000 AM     AVALANCHE        11 NNW MOOSE CREEK STAT 61.82N 149.24W
03/19/2018                                      AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            11 INCHES NEW SNOW. 2 INCHES/HOUR 6-10 AM. STILL SNOWING.
            AVALANCHE MP15.5 WILLOW-FISHHOK ROAD

1024 AM     SNOW             1 SE SUTTON             61.71N 148.87W
03/19/2018  M5.0 INCH                           AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SNOW PAST SIX HOURS. SNOW STILL FALLING.

&&

KUTZ