Small Craft Advisory 166, NWS Anchorage, AK

143 
FZAK52 PAFC 221259
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
359 AM AKST Thu Feb 22 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-230130-
359 AM AKST Thu Feb 22 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 1005 mb low 260 nm southwest of Shemya moves to 350 nm northeast
of Shemya at 996 mb by Fri morning and then to 300 nm northeast of
Shemya at 1000 mb by Sat morning. A 1000 mb low Fri afternoon 215
nm north of St. Paul moves inland near Toksook Bay by Sat 
morning. The associated front will move across the Bering Sea 
through Fri afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-230130-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
359 AM AKST Thu Feb 22 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt decreasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 9 
ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt becoming S 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SUN...W wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ155-230130-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
359 AM AKST Thu Feb 22 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt becoming NW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. From
the Shumagin Islands E, NW wind 15 kt becoming S after midnight.
Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ160-230130-
Bristol Bay-
359 AM AKST Thu Feb 22 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 8 
ft. Freezing spray before midnight.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4
ft. Patchy freezing fog. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ165-230130-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
359 AM AKST Thu Feb 22 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt decreasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 12 
ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. W of Port Moller... E wind 15 kt becoming 
SE 30 kt after midnight. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ170-230130-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
359 AM AKST Thu Feb 22 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas 10
ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 35 kt becoming W 25 kt by noon. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 24 ft.

$$

PKZ171-230130-
Unalaska Bay-
359 AM AKST Thu Feb 22 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt becoming SE 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3
ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-230130-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
359 AM AKST Thu Feb 22 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt becoming variable less than 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming S 30 kt by midnight. Seas 10 ft. 
Rain.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt becoming W 25 kt by noon. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ173-230130-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
359 AM AKST Thu Feb 22 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt becoming SE 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8
ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ174-230130-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
359 AM AKST Thu Feb 22 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt becoming SE 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11 
ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ175-230130-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
359 AM AKST Thu Feb 22 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
10 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt becoming SW 25 kt after midnight. Seas
11 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.MON...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft.

$$

PKZ176-230130-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
359 AM AKST Thu Feb 22 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 13
ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ177-230130-
Adak to Kiska-
359 AM AKST Thu Feb 22 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ178-230130-
Kiska to Attu-
359 AM AKST Thu Feb 22 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft building to 20 ft after
midnight.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ179-230130-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
359 AM AKST Thu Feb 22 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt. Seas
11 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas 7 
ft building to 11 ft after midnight. Snow and rain.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SAT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 27 ft.

$$

PKZ180-230130-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
359 AM AKST Thu Feb 22 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt becoming E after midnight. Seas 8 ft.
Patchy freezing fog.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray. Snow and rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ181-230130-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
359 AM AKST Thu Feb 22 2018

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt decreasing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas in 
ice free waters 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt becoming SE after midnight. Seas in ice
free waters 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt by noon. Seas in ice free 
waters 5 ft building to 10 ft in the afternoon. Freezing spray. 
Snow.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 13 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 12 ft.

$$

PKZ185-230130-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
359 AM AKST Thu Feb 22 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
12 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...E of Saint Matthew Island, W wind 15 kt becoming E 25
kt after midnight. W of Saint Matthew Island, E wind 25 kt 
increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...E wind 35 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...E 45 kt W of Saint
Matthew Island. Seas 18 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

833 
FZAK52 PAFC 230044
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
344 PM AKST Thu Feb 22 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-231315-
344 PM AKST Thu Feb 22 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 1002 mb low 90 nm southeast of Shemya this afternoon will move 
to 310 nm northwest of Saint Paul Island and strengthen to 996 mb 
Fri afternoon while sending a front eastward through the Bering 
and Aleutians. This low moves out of the area on Sunday. 
A 994 mb low develops 145 nm west of Shemya Sat afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-231315-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
344 PM AKST Thu Feb 22 2018

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt decreasing to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts to
40 kt out of bays and passes during the evening. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt becoming S 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft.
Rain showers.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SUN...W wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ155-231315-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
344 PM AKST Thu Feb 22 2018

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt after midnight. From the
Shumagin Islands E, NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ160-231315-
Bristol Bay-
344 PM AKST Thu Feb 22 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
8 ft. Patchy freezing fog.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog. Widespread snow and 
rain showers.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ165-231315-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
344 PM AKST Thu Feb 22 2018

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming SE 30 kt after midnight. From Port
Moller E, NW wind 15 kt becoming SE after midnight. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Widespread rain and snow showers.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ170-231315-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
344 PM AKST Thu Feb 22 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind increasing to 35 kt. Seas 7 ft building to 11 ft 
after midnight. Widespread rain showers.
.FRI...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. Snow showers.
.SAT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SUN...S wind 35 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ171-231315-
Unalaska Bay-
344 PM AKST Thu Feb 22 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind increasing to 30 kt. Seas 4 ft. Widespread rain 
showers.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-231315-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
344 PM AKST Thu Feb 22 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ173-231315-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
344 PM AKST Thu Feb 22 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ174-231315-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
344 PM AKST Thu Feb 22 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ175-231315-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
344 PM AKST Thu Feb 22 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 55 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.MON...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ176-231315-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
344 PM AKST Thu Feb 22 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt becoming SW 25 kt after midnight. Seas
15 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 30 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ177-231315-
Adak to Kiska-
344 PM AKST Thu Feb 22 2018

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...W wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. Snow showers.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight.
Seas 20 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 50 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 55 kt. Seas 35 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ178-231315-
Kiska to Attu-
344 PM AKST Thu Feb 22 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind increasing to 35 kt. Seas 14 ft building to 19 ft 
after midnight.
.FRI...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft. Snow showers.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 40 kt becoming SW 30 kt after midnight. Seas
23 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 32 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ179-231315-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
344 PM AKST Thu Feb 22 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas 7 
ft building to 11 ft after midnight. Snow and rain showers.
.FRI...W wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. Snow showers.
.SAT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 29 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft.

$$

PKZ180-231315-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
344 PM AKST Thu Feb 22 2018

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt becoming SE after midnight. Seas 8 ft.
Patchy freezing fog.
.FRI...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy freezing fog. Snow.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...S wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ181-231315-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
344 PM AKST Thu Feb 22 2018

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt becoming E after midnight. Seas in ice
free waters 6 ft. Freezing spray and patchy freezing fog.
.FRI...E wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft. Freezing spray 
and freezing fog. Snow.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 30 kt becoming W after midnight. Seas in ice
free waters 11 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 12 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 13 ft.

$$

PKZ185-231315-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
344 PM AKST Thu Feb 22 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E of Saint Matthew Island, W wind 20 kt becoming E 30
kt after midnight. W of Saint Matthew Island, E wind 30 kt 
increasing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas 7 ft building to 11 ft after
midnight.
.FRI...E wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft. Freezing spray. Widespread snow
showers.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
457 AM AKST Wed Feb 21 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The pattern, in the short-term and long-term, remains much
unchanged. Yet another transient shortwave ridge is passing
through the southern half of AK. The ridge has worked in tandem
with lingering low-level moisture to produce another night of
widespread fog and stratus. Meanwhile, the leading warm front
associated with the next shortwave is pushing into Southwest AK.
The leading edge of the warm front brought some very light snow
that is now steadily turning over to rain. It is also ushering in
yet another round of very moist air. Precipitable water values
over the North Pacific range from 0.8" to 1.0". This airmass is
posed to spread further east across all of southern AK. At the
20,000' level, the jet continues to support this transient
pattern. It comes into SW AK at about 130 kt before riding up and
over the ridge at 110 kt. This will serve to not only keep the
pattern moving, but also to keep plenty of moisture and mild air
across the state.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models continue to be in rather good agreement regarding the
synoptic pattern through the short-term (48hrs). The result is
moderate forecast confidence in the main weather features.
However, the fog and stratus continues to be very challenging to
nail down as it ebbs and flows with each passing upper-level wave.
The models have reached more of a consensus with the snow event
across Southcentral tonight into Thu. The EC continues to be the
most aggressive pushing the upper-level trough into a negative
tilt. However, the other models all concur that it will more
likely be neutrally tilted (due north to south). We continued to
fine-tune the forecast in that neutral tilt direction. This will
impact the Turnagain winds and the precipitation type for the
Anchorage Bowl (see Southcentral portion below for details). It
also means the pattern will continue to move quickly from west to
east, thus limiting snow totals. All models agree that by early
Fri a decent offshore cold air advection pattern will set up. This
will lead to rapidly clearing skies and gusty winds through many
of the gaps.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions are very precarious this morning as fog and
low stratus lurk across the area. With minimal change to the
synoptic pattern, could still see the potential of the terminal
dropping to LIFR at any time this morning. By this afternoon,
that changes as southeast winds (and mixing) start to increase in
advance of the next system. The Turnagain Arm winds will start to
blow over Fire Island late this evening. At exactly what time and
how strong they make it into the airport remains somewhat
uncertain, but it looks like after midnight. This should allow
precipitation to become a rain-snow mix. Then, as the winds die
off in the early morning and precipitation turns to all snow,
except cigs and vis to rapidly deteriorate.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A rather "dirty" ridge (considerably cloudy) will be over the area
today. Some patchy fog remains near Cook inlet this morning, but
should dissipate by afternoon. A system approaching from the west
will enter Southcentral Alaska tonight. This will bring
precipitation from west to east across the area tonight and
Thursday. The precipitation will generally be in the form of
snow north of Anchorage. For the Kenai peninsula, the snow will
mix with or change to rain fairly early around Kachemak Bay, and
then some rain may mix in by late morning further north. For
Anchorage, some southeast winds are possible off Turnagain arm.
This will raise the temperature and could limit the precipitation
potential as well. However, there is enough moisture and dynamics
that some snowfall is expected, with the current forecast
indicating amounts somewhere in the 2 to 4 inch range. Higher
amounts are expected further north in the Matanuska and Susitna
Valleys. The trough will push through the area in the late
afternoon and evening. Strong offshore winds will then develop as
a low forms in the Gulf and high pressure builds in from the
west.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

A warm front is moving through Southwest Alaska this morning with
a mix of rain and snow. The rain transition has moved through the
Kuskokwim Delta with all snow currently falling in the Lower
Kuskokwim Valley. Eventually the warmer air will also make it into
the Kuskokwim Valley by afternoon where snow will mix with rain.
Any snow accumulations will be in the morning and will generally
be less than 1-2". The trailing cold front will move east tonight,
but most precipitation will be pre-frontal, so most of this will
fall as rain with a brief period of potential back-end snow, but
accumulations will be minor although the western slopes of the
Alaska Range will see 5-10" of snow. Cold air advection will be
rather intense behind the front, so temperatures Thursday night
will drop well below freezing again as high pressure settles in.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

A gale force low over the western Bering Sea/Aleutians will slowly
move east through tonight as it moves inland along the west coast.
Immediately trailing it will be another front moving into the
western Bering Sea which will bring another swath of gale force
winds to most of the Bering Sea Thursday and Friday as the surface
low moves toward the Bering Strait. This will bring widespread
rain to the entire chain and the Pribilof Islands.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Fri through Tuesday) (from Tue afternoon
discussion)... Expect the active pattern to continue with near to
above normal temperatures, periodic clouds/snow with dry and
colder periods between.

These conditions will hold on Friday, slowly weakening, as the
next system pushes into the area from the southwest overnight
Friday into Saturday. Guidance is struggling with how to track the
triple point low as the front moves into the Gulf, and hence how
far north to track the frontal boundary. The front should make it
to the coast and most of the Cook Inlet region, bringing another
few inches of snow to these areas. A return to short- lived
outflow conditions comes late weekend when that system exits.

Into the extended forecast, the upper-level southwesterly flow
remains. The progressive nature of the pattern will continue
through next week, with front and lows rolling into the region
every 1-2 days. At this point, the low amplitude pattern should
stop any big warmups from happening, any warmer air associated
with the fronts should slide to the east with the triple-point
lows.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning 119 120 130 131 165 170 173-179.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MSO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JA
LONG TERM...MTL/MSO