Gale Warning 815, NWS Anchorage, AK

976 
FZAK52 PAFC 230018
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
318 PM AKST Sat Dec 22 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-231315-
318 PM AKST Sat Dec 22 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 977 mb low 200 nm Southwest of Attu merges with a 984 mb North 
Pacific low 330 nm South of Nikolski by Mon afternoon. This low 
draws a strong front towards the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska 
Peninsula for Mon afternoon. Weak high pressure lingers over the 
Bering through Mon afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-231315-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
318 PM AKST Sat Dec 22 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ155-231315-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
318 PM AKST Sat Dec 22 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...E wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ160-231315-
Bristol Bay-
318 PM AKST Sat Dec 22 2018

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.

$$

PKZ165-231315-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
318 PM AKST Sat Dec 22 2018

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ170-231315-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
318 PM AKST Sat Dec 22 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight.
Seas 6 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ171-231315-
Unalaska Bay-
318 PM AKST Sat Dec 22 2018

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-231315-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
318 PM AKST Sat Dec 22 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 7
ft.
.MON...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ173-231315-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
318 PM AKST Sat Dec 22 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ174-231315-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
318 PM AKST Sat Dec 22 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ175-231315-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
318 PM AKST Sat Dec 22 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 15 increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 7 
ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ176-231315-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
318 PM AKST Sat Dec 22 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ177-231315-
Adak to Kiska-
318 PM AKST Sat Dec 22 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ178-231315-
Kiska to Attu-
318 PM AKST Sat Dec 22 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ179-231315-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
318 PM AKST Sat Dec 22 2018

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ180-231315-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
318 PM AKST Sat Dec 22 2018

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. Heavy freezing
spray.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.

$$

PKZ181-231315-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
318 PM AKST Sat Dec 22 2018

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft. Heavy 
freezing spray.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. Heavy freezing
spray.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.

$$

PKZ185-231315-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
318 PM AKST Sat Dec 22 2018

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray .
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.WED...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
435 PM AKST Fri Dec 21 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A vertically stacked low is spinning southeast of Kodiak Island
this afternoon. This low is pushing a subtle occluded front over
the northern Gulf and the Kenai Peninsula. Instability along the
front is the main factor for the showery conditions over the
northern Gulf, Prince William Sound and eastern Kenai Peninsula.
Along the northern coastline, weak upper level ridging is
occurring which is cutting off the moisture feed from moving
farther inland. In addition, low level easterly flow through
Southcentral is keeping the western Kenai Peninsula and Anchorage
area fairly dry. On the backside of the low, offshore flow
continues to advect cold air over the western mainland and
maintain drier conditions. A second vertically stacked low is
positioned over Shemya and is migrating southwestward. This low
is producing a front over the western Aleutians and is increasing
the gusty easterly winds in the area. Between these two lows,
weather is fairly benign as a surface ridge builds over the
central Aleutians. Gusty conditions persist through the Bering.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models overall adequately capture the synoptic pattern through
Monday across the Gulf and Southcentral. Out west (Aleutians,
Southwest Mainland, and Bering Sea), models have a general
handle on the synoptic pattern. The ECMWF however appears to
be an outlier with bringing the surface low south of the central
too far north Sunday afternoon. For now will tend to trend closer
to the GFS/NAM solutions.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Generally VFR conditions should prevail. North winds will
increase some tonight, but should hold below 15 kt.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A shortwave trough draped across the southcentral coast will
continue to produce more snow across portions of Prince William
Sound and the eastern Kenai Peninsula this evening. As this trough
lifts north tomorrow morning, a second shortwave and associated
surface front will approach the coast from the northern Gulf. A
persistent east-southeasterly flow will advect more moisture
across the coast, with another shot of widespread snow for western
Prince William Sound and the windward side of the Kenai and
Chugach Mountains. Warmer air will also advect in from the south,
changing the snow to rain along the immediate coast. Precipitation
type for sheltered locations within Prince William Sound (e.g.
Valdez and Whittier) look to remain all snow, albeit a heavy, wet
snow, as a more easterly flow will help limit the amount of warmer
air advecting into these locations. Areas along the Kenai
Peninsula (e.g. Seward) are expected to see a transition to a mix
of rain and snow, and potentially to all rain, but not before a
couple of inches of snow accumulate. Precipitation will come to
an end from north to south late Saturday night into Sunday as the
low center southeast of Kodiak Island retrogrades back to the west
before quickly sliding across the Gulf for late Sunday. Outflow
winds will ramp up over the Copper River Delta, along the
Thompson Pass, and in the passes around eastern Prince William
Sound Sunday into Monday as the low approaches Yakutat and the
pressure gradient between it and cold, high pressure over the
interior increases.

Precipitation with both of these systems will be limited along
the lee of the Kenai and Chugach Mountains (e.g. Anchorage Bowl)
due to the downslope component to the east-southeasterly winds
aloft.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Friday
Night through Monday)...

Southwest Alaska remains in a stagnant pattern with cold
northeasterly flow persisting due to a surface low located to the
south with a ridge parked to the west over the Bering. A weak
short wave trough will swing west across the AKPEN and Bristol
Bay coast this evening bringing a quick shot of light snow to the
area. Besides that, the region will remain cold and dry through
the weekend with continued offshore flow. The low south of Kodiak
will drift north some over the weekend bringing snow showers to
the Alaska Range (mostly on the east side) and somewhat milder
air. This will help to shunt the coldest air to the north allowing
temperatures to warm slightly, with above zero readings expected
for interior locations and teens to even low 20's for more coastal
areas. By Monday, the low slowly drifts off to the east allowing
colder air to filter back into Southwest AK.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3/Friday
through Sunday)...

High pressure will dominate the eastern half of the Bering Sea and
Aleutians through at least early next week leading to fairly quiet
weather over the area. A weak short wave trough will rotate west
across the Western AKPEN and Eastern Aleutians tonight through
tomorrow morning bringing some light precipitation to those
areas. Cold air will continue to stream south across the Eastern
Bering which should help to keep precipitation mostly snow on the
Bering side of the island chain, while warmer air will lead to
rain or mixed precip on the Pacific side. The bulk of the precip
should taper off by tomorrow night with only showers lingering
over the mountains.

Further west, a 980 mb surface low will swing a front across the
Western Aleutians and Bering tonight while bringing a quick shot
of storm force winds to the waters near Attu and Shemya this
evening as the low center passes over those locations before
retrograding west back into the open Pacific. Southerly flow on
the east side of the low will keep temperatures warmer while
various shortwaves rotating around the parent low will keep rain
showers over the area through the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...

At the onset of the forecast period there are a series of surface
lows from the North Pacific to the Sea Of Okhotsk. At 18z Tuesday,
the first low is south of the AKPEN, the second low is southwest
of Adak and the third low is near Kamchatka. Additionally, at the
surface there is a dome of high pressure over Eastern Siberia.
The GFS, ECMWF and the Canadian all ping into these synoptic features
but even at the onset of the forecast period the location of the
surface low with each storm is offset. As time elapses and these
storms move eastward, the lack of synchronicity increases. High
confidence that the southern tier of Alaska will be in a prolonged
wet pattern. But it is too difficult to nail down the timing of
the precipitation shields associated with each cyclone. The two
biggest items of concern are determining whether these events will
be straight snow or a wintry mix.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale 119 120 130 138 139 150 177.
		 Storm 178.
		 Heavy Freezing Spray 180 181.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RA/BC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...TM
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KVP
LONG TERM...PJS