Gale Warning 808, NWS Anchorage, AK

608 
FZAK51 PAFC 191221
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
321 AM AKST Wed Dec 19 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-200145-
321 AM AKST Wed Dec 19 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 981 mb low 100 nm west of Middleton Island moves 50 nm southwest
of Middleton Island at 995 mb Wed night and then dissipates Thu 
night. A front enters the western Gulf Wed night and moves to the 
central Gulf Thu night.

$$

PKZ119-200145-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
321 AM AKST Wed Dec 19 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt except SE 25 kt along the coast E of Montague
Island. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming N after midnight. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ120-200145-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
321 AM AKST Wed Dec 19 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
10 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming N after midnight. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ121-200145-
Resurrection Bay-
321 AM AKST Wed Dec 19 2018

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ125-200145-
Prince William Sound-
321 AM AKST Wed Dec 19 2018

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt becoming NE 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3
ft.
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-200145-
Port Valdez-
321 AM AKST Wed Dec 19 2018

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ127-200145-
Valdez Narrows-
321 AM AKST Wed Dec 19 2018

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ128-200145-
Valdez Arm-
321 AM AKST Wed Dec 19 2018

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ129-200145-
Passage Canal-
321 AM AKST Wed Dec 19 2018

.TODAY...W wind 10 kt becoming E by late morning. Seas 2 ft. 
Widespread snow showers.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow showers.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Gusts to 25 kt near Whittier. Seas 2 ft. 
Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ130-200145-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
321 AM AKST Wed Dec 19 2018

...STORM WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 50 kt. Seas 15 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...W wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
10 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ131-200145-
Barren Islands East-
321 AM AKST Wed Dec 19 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ132-200145-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
321 AM AKST Wed Dec 19 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas
11 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt becoming NE in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ136-200145-
Chiniak Bay-
321 AM AKST Wed Dec 19 2018

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...NW wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ137-200145-
Marmot Bay-
321 AM AKST Wed Dec 19 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
4 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...NW wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ138-200145-
Shelikof Strait-
321 AM AKST Wed Dec 19 2018

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Gusts to 55 kt through bays and passes. Seas 
8 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts to
45 kt through bays and passes in the evening. Seas 5 ft. Freezing 
spray.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ139-200145-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
321 AM AKST Wed Dec 19 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt except NE 15 kt N of Anchor Point. Seas 5 ft.
Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ140-200145-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
321 AM AKST Wed Dec 19 2018

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-200145-
Kachemak Bay-
321 AM AKST Wed Dec 19 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
7 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt becoming N 10 kt after midnight. Seas 4
ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
450 AM AKST Tue Dec 18 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The upper level low over Southwest Alaska yesterday is finally
beginning to break down and open up into a trough which is digging
southeastward near Kodiak Island this morning. To the west of the
trough, strong northerly winds continue to move Arctic air
southward across the eastern Bering. The telltale signature of
that is the streaks of showers racing southward over the Alaska
Peninsula and out to the northern Pacific. Pockets of low stratus
persist along the foothills of the Alaska and Kuskokwim Ranges,
with more stratus moving south out of the Yukon Delta into Bethel.

Further east across Southcentral, a plume of upper level moisture
is moving right up Cook Inlet and across the Susitna Valley. It
appears this feature is confined to the upper levels. Radar is
showing all of the precipitation occurring around the area moving
southeast to northwest, indicating a different steering flow in
the midlevels. Meanwhile the near surface air is out of the north,
as indicated by the echoes near the Kenai Radar. Across the
southern Kenai, heavier snow shower activity in a separate band is
ongoing as well, producing steadier snow for much of the area
south of Clam Gulch. Broad lift throughout the atmosphere to the
east and northeast of the upper level trough is responsible for
the precipitation activity ongoing across Southcentral.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

The models remain in decent agreement over the next 2 days across
the Gulf, with lesser agreement by Wednesday as to where a
developing low over the Bering ends up. Nevertheless the fronts
and significant features with the Bering and Gulf lows are roughly
the same in terms of placement among all the models. As has been
the case for a week now, the main challenges will be timing
precipitation across Southcentral, and where any fog or low
stratus will form across Southwest Alaska. Forecast confidence is
moderate.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Snow associated with an area of moisture will cause
deteriorating conditions this morning through lunchtime as the
precipitation moves from east to west over the area. The snow will
settle just south of town for the afternoon and early evening
hours, before potentially moving back to the north into Anchorage
for the evening. The heavier snow shifts south and east out of
Anchorage for good after midnight. While snowing, conditions will
be MVFR to IFR at times, but prolonged heavy snow is not expected.
There is considerable uncertainty as to how far south the snow
moves this afternoon, and as such there is some potential that
light snow continues throughout the day with only brief, periodic
breaks between snow showers. Winds will remain light throughout
the TAF period.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
An upper level low will slide into the western Gulf today. This
will bend the upper level flow from southerly to southeasterly. A
weak front will continue to develop in the northern Gulf, and this
southeasterly flow will push mid-level moisture into Southcentral.
This will bring chance or likely Pops to the much of the area,
with the exception of the Copper River basin which will remain
dry. At the surface, the offshore gradient will strengthen as
surface high pressure builds behind the low over southwest Alaska.
As the upper low moves north tonight into early Wednesday, the
front will also be pushed northward and bring chances of snow to
all of Southcentral. On Wednesday afternoon the upper low will
begin to weaken and move eastward. This will slowly dry things out
over the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Tuesday
through Friday)...

Cold temperatures continue to be the weather story for southwest
Alaska. Lows will persist in the -20F range for inland locations
the next couple of days, with tonight expected to be the coldest.
Some locations may get down to around -25F, though around -20F
should do it for most areas. This is due to a pocket of cold air
that will make a push south over the area later today.
Temperatures will warm slightly beginning tomorrow, but the region
generally stays in a cold pattern through the week, with
temperatures remaining below zero.

The only other item of note is a band of precipitation that will
work its way over the Western Alaska Range tonight into tomorrow.
This area of precip will not work very far west and will just
bring some areas of light snow to the eastern Lower Kuskokwim
Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through
3/Tuesday through Friday)...

The persistent northerly flow in the Bering Sea will finally give
way to a change in the weather pattern this week. The Eastern
Aleutians and eastern Bering will still see the northerly pattern
today, with gale force winds associated with it. Also of note,
wind direction and forcing is such that storm force gusts can be
expected in bays and passes on the Pacific side of the eastern
Aleutians. A shift in the weather is coming tomorrow though.

The Western Aleutians today will see a long occluded boundary
work its way east into the island chain. This low will bring
precip and gale force winds with it, but will also end the
northerly flow as it slides east. Tomorrow this low will push into
the Central and Eastern Aleutians, ending northerly flow there as
well and warming temperatures a bit. So, finally a change in the
weather pattern for this part of our forecast area.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

Thursday starts off the long term forecast with an upper level
trough over Prince William Sound and the northern Gulf and a
broad upper level low and cold air mass stretched across mainland
Alaska. Precipitation along the coastal areas will taper off
through the day and shift offshore overnight as the upper level
support weakens and leaves a remnant surface low drifting in the
Gulf. A low south of the eastern Aleutian Chain Thursday will make
its way east to be located south of the Gulf on Friday. With the
more southern track of this low, impacts will be primarily limited
to the offshore waters. As the low continues into the
southeastern Gulf through the weekend, offshore flow and gap winds
will increase across Southcentral Alaska with skies clearing and
a rather cold air mass settling in over the area. This cold
pattern with strong northerly winds through channeled terrain
looks likely to persist through the first half of next week as a
more southerly storm track keeps the strongest storms well south
of the area and directed into the Pacific Northwest.

Looking out west, another front will approach the western
Aleutians and Bering on Thursday. Additional lows spinning up in
response will keep the weather pattern active over the Aleutians
and Bering for Friday and Saturday as well. A smaller frontal
wave in the eastern Bering will bring the potential for some snow
and blowing snow to the western capes and Kuskokwim Delta coast
Thursday through Saturday while the remainder of mainland
Southwest Alaska remains generally dry. Heading into Sunday, a low
south of the Aleutian Chain will be the main weather-maker to
keep an eye on for placement and intensity as its front moves east
towards the AKPEN through Monday.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Storm Warning: 130.
Gale Warning: 131 132 138 150 155 165 170 175 176 177 178 185 352
411 412.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning: 160 180 181 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JPW
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...BB
LONG TERM...JR/ALH