Gale Warning 807, NWS Anchorage, AK

560 
FZAK52 PAFC 190048
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
348 PM AKST Tue Dec 18 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-191400-
348 PM AKST Tue Dec 18 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...A front over the
western Bering and Aleutians moves over the central Bering Wed 
morning. The front moves over the eastern Aleutians and weakens Wed 
evening. A 991 mb low develops near St. Paul Island Thu morning.

$$

PKZ150-191400-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
348 PM AKST Tue Dec 18 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Gusts to 55 kt out of bays and passes. Seas
13 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 10 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ155-191400-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
348 PM AKST Tue Dec 18 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 40 kt except NW 30 kt from the Shumagin Islands
E. Gusts to 55 kt out of bays and passes in the evening W of the
Shumagin Islands. Seas 15 ft. Snow showers.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Snow showers.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. Snow and rain.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ160-191400-
Bristol Bay-
348 PM AKST Tue Dec 18 2018

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt becoming N 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas in
ice free waters 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.

$$

PKZ165-191400-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
348 PM AKST Tue Dec 18 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. From
Port Moller E, N wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.WED...N wind 20 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft. Snow.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ170-191400-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
348 PM AKST Tue Dec 18 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Snow.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Snow and rain.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ171-191400-
Unalaska Bay-
348 PM AKST Tue Dec 18 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt becoming SW 20 kt after midnight. Seas 5
ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight. Snow.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Widespread rain showers and
snow.
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-191400-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
348 PM AKST Tue Dec 18 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Snow and rain.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft. Widespread rain showers
and snow.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ173-191400-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
348 PM AKST Tue Dec 18 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Snow and rain.
.WED...S wind 30 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 13
ft. Snow with rain.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.  and rain.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ174-191400-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
348 PM AKST Tue Dec 18 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Snow and rain.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Widespread rain showers and snow.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ175-191400-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
348 PM AKST Tue Dec 18 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind increasing to 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Snow and rain.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ176-191400-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
348 PM AKST Tue Dec 18 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind increasing to 40 kt. Seas 17 ft. Snow and 
widespread rain showers.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ177-191400-
Adak to Kiska-
348 PM AKST Tue Dec 18 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt becoming W 20 kt after midnight. Seas
15 ft. Rain.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ178-191400-
Kiska to Attu-
348 PM AKST Tue Dec 18 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ179-191400-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
348 PM AKST Tue Dec 18 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt becoming E 20 kt after midnight. Seas 8 ft. 
Freezing spray.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 12 ft. Rain with snow.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ180-191400-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
348 PM AKST Tue Dec 18 2018

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft. Heavy freezing
spray.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.

$$

PKZ181-191400-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
348 PM AKST Tue Dec 18 2018

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ185-191400-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
348 PM AKST Tue Dec 18 2018

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...E 30 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...E wind 25 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...E 30 kt W of Saint
Matthew Island. Seas 8 ft building to 13 ft in the afternoon.
Heavy freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

628 
FZAK52 PAFC 191257
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
357 AM AKST Wed Dec 19 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-200215-
357 AM AKST Wed Dec 19 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

Veniaminof Volcano, located 22 nm north of Perryville, is 
currently active. 

A front over the central Bering and Aleutians moves over the 
eastern Bering Wed night. A 981 mb low develops 270 nm southwest
of Dutch Harbor Wed afternoon and moves into the Gulf Thu night. 
Another front approaches the western Aleutians Thu night.

$$

PKZ150-200215-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
357 AM AKST Wed Dec 19 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 10 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft 
building to 15 ft in the afternoon. Snow.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ155-200215-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
357 AM AKST Wed Dec 19 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt becoming SE 35 kt after midnight, Seas 11
ft building to 17 ft after midnight. From the Shumagin Islands E, S 
wind 25 kt, Seas 9 ft. Snow and rain.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft. Widespread rain showers and snow.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ160-200215-
Bristol Bay-
357 AM AKST Wed Dec 19 2018

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt becoming N 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas in
ice free waters 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. Heavy freezing
spray.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.

$$

PKZ165-200215-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
357 AM AKST Wed Dec 19 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ170-200215-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
357 AM AKST Wed Dec 19 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ171-200215-
Unalaska Bay-
357 AM AKST Wed Dec 19 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Widespread rain showers and snow.
.THU...E wind 15 kt becoming NE in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
Widespread rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ172-200215-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
357 AM AKST Wed Dec 19 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft. Widespread rain showers and snow.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...E wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ173-200215-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
357 AM AKST Wed Dec 19 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
13 ft. Rain mixed with snow.
.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain transitioning to snow.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...E wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ174-200215-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
357 AM AKST Wed Dec 19 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Widespread rain showers mixed 
with snow.
.TONIGHT...N wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain transitioning to snow.
.THU...NW wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
18 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...E wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ175-200215-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
357 AM AKST Wed Dec 19 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ176-200215-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
357 AM AKST Wed Dec 19 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ177-200215-
Adak to Kiska-
357 AM AKST Wed Dec 19 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ178-200215-
Kiska to Attu-
357 AM AKST Wed Dec 19 2018

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ179-200215-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
357 AM AKST Wed Dec 19 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain with snow.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain with snow.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. Snow showers and rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ180-200215-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
357 AM AKST Wed Dec 19 2018

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft. 
Heavy freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.

$$

PKZ181-200215-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
357 AM AKST Wed Dec 19 2018

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ185-200215-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
357 AM AKST Wed Dec 19 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...E 30 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 8 ft building to 13 ft in the afternoon. 
Heavy freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Heavy freezing spray. Snow
showers.
.THU...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Heavy freezing spray. Snow
showers.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
437 PM AKST Mon Dec 17 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The predominate synoptic feature is a long wave trough spread
over western mainland Alaska, the AK-PEN and the eastern Bering.
Cold air continues to advect on the backside of the trough
lowering temperatures and clearing skies over the western mainland.
The cold air advection is also bringing widespread snow showers
across much of the central Bering Sea, and central Aleutians to
the Alaska Peninsula. Northerly flow over the eastern Bering is
increasing winds to gale force through the gaps in the Alaska
Peninsula. The jet stream is meridional in nature, northwesterly
aligned over the western Aleutians with wind speeds approaching
125 kt at 300 mb. In the Gulf there is southerly flow aloft and
widespread weak low pressure at the surface. Most of Southcentral
remains in the cold pool where isolated snow showers continue
through the Anchorage Area, western Prince William Sound and
Susitna Valley. The front that brought significant snowfall to
the Anchorage area is pushing further inland and dissipating
today. The atmosphere has become more dry aloft with low level
clouds dominating Anchorage. The low cloud deck combined with
super cooled liquid water near the surface and a lack of ice
crystals kept the precipitation as freezing drizzle rather than
snow today. Along the northern Gulf coast east of Prince William
Sound, temperatures are warm enough to turn the precipitation
into rain.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models are in fair synoptic agreement out west across the Bering
Sea and Aleutians through Thursday. Models in the Gulf still
continue to struggle with positioning and intensity of surface
lows across the Gulf through Thursday. They however are in
generally good agreement with strong westerly flow setting up
over the western Gulf Tuesday/Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Generally stable conditions will continue MVFR and
possibly IFR conditions through tonight. Light snow developing
Tuesday most likely will keep at least MVFR conditions in place.
The threat of light freezing drizzle could continue into the early
evening hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The remnants of an old front that remain along the north Gulf
coast will continue to diminish overnight. However, more
precipitation will be on the way as a weak upper level feature
will help bring in light snow to areas around Anchorage and the
Kenai Peninsula tonight. On Tuesday, a new low will form off a
baroclinic zone in the Gulf that will head north towards the north
Gulf coast. This low combined with upper level flow will help
bring in light snow to areas around southern Southcentral Alaska
Tuesday. On Wednesday an upper level low that was previously near
Kodiak Island will move over the southern Kenai Peninsula helping
to pull more cold air to the Gulf and north Gulf coast and bring
more snow to the coastline.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2...Tue and Wed)...
A couple more days of cold with generally dry, northwest flow are
in store for the area. A trough of deep cold air remains entrenched
from the Bering Strait through the Alaska Peninsula. The net effect
with be continued cold temperatures which will only be reinforced
by cold, dry northerly moderate winds. Exactly when the coldest
morning will be completely dependent on cloud cover. Most places
have cleared (from lingering low stratus) this afternoon. But
another swath of clouds is tracking into the YK-Delta from the
north. Either way, it looks like most places will reach from
somewhere between 10 to 20 below Tue morning. Right now we are
forecasting Wed to be the coldest with the best potential for
mostly clear skies over the mainland. The exception to this will
be right along the AK Range where some clouds creep back in from
the east by Wed morning.

The only real potential for precipitation will be associated with
a shortwave rotating in from Southcentral AK Wed morning. Some
light snow will be possible mainly from Sleetmute to the east on
Wed. Then a reprieve from the cold air is in store by Wed
afternoon as a front moving across the Bering should finally
start to displace the cold air mass.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2...Tue and
Wed)...
We will need to divide the domain into two parts for this forecast.
First, the Eastern Bering remains under the influence of a deep
cold trough and gusty northerly winds. The net effect is
widespread snow showers from the Western Capes through the
Pribilof Islands and down to the Alaska Peninsula and Dutch
Harbor. These snow showers coupled with gusty winds could produce
pockets of blowing snow in all these areas through Tue. Gusts will
continue to be especially strong on the south side of the Alaska
Peninsula as the cold air pushes through the terrain there.

Part two will be the Western Bering as it will be the first to
see the change across the entire area. A decaying warm occlusion
will slide from Shemya through Atka on Tue. This will usher in
some warmer air and a fairly elongated band of precipitation
across the Aleutians. This precipitation should mostly fall as
snow, but it could mix with rain from time to time. The front will
have gale-force southeast winds initially before winds switch to
a SW direction as the front pushes into the Central Bering on
Wed. This front will also bring a gradual end to the cold
northerly winds and snow showers for the Alaska Peninsula on Wed.
By late Wed, westerly flow will push a band of rain and snow from
Dutch Harbor into the Alaska Peninsula.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
Thursday starts off the long term forecast with an upper level
trough over Prince William Sound and the northern Gulf and a
broader upper level low and cold air mass stretched across
mainland Alaska. Precipitation along the coastal areas will taper
off through the day and shift offshore overnight as the upper
level support weakens and leaves a remnant surface low drifting in
the Gulf. A low south of the eastern Aleutian Chain Thursday will
make its way east to be located south of the Gulf on Friday. With
the more southern track of this low, impacts will be primarily
limited to the offshore waters. As the low continues into the
southeastern Gulf through the weekend, offshore flow and gap winds
will increase across Southcentral Alaska with skies clearing and
a rather cold air mass settling in over the area. This cold
pattern with strong northerly winds through channeled terrain
looks likely to persist through the first half of next week as
a more southern storm track keeps the strongest storms well south
of the area and directed into the Pacific Northwest.

Looking out west, another front will approach the western
Aleutians and Bering on Thursday. Additional lows spinning up in
response will keep the weather pattern active over the Aleutians
and Bering for Friday and Saturday as well. A smaller frontal
wave in the eastern Bering will bring the potential for some snow
and blowing snow to the western capes and Kuskokwim Delta coast
Thursday through Saturday while the remainder of Mainland
Southwest Alaska remains generally dry. Heading into Sunday, a
low south of the Aleutian Chain will be the main weather maker
to keep an eye on for placement and intensity as its front moves
east towards the AKPEN through Monday.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale Warning 130 131 132 138 150 155 175 176 177 178.
         Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 130 138 160 180 181 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BC/RA
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MSO
MARINE/LONG TERM...JR/ALH