Gale Warning 8, NWS Anchorage, AK

917 
FZAK62 PAFC 071219
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
319 AM AKST Sun Jan 7 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-080145-
319 AM AKST Sun Jan 7 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 977 mb low at 60N 179E moves over the Gulf of Anadyr at 985 mb
by Sun afternoon. A 957 mb low at 45N 176E moves to 51N 178W at
949 mb by Mon morning and then to 52N 177W at 960 mb by Tue
morning.

$$

PKZ411-080145-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
319 AM AKST Sun Jan 7 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 to 30 kt becoming E in the afternoon. 
Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. Snow and rain.
.MON...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 16 to 21 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ412-080145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
319 AM AKST Sun Jan 7 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 to 30 kt becoming S 10 to 20 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 to 35 kt increasing to 30 to 45 kt after
midnight. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.MON...E wind 35 to 45 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 17 to 23 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.

$$

PKZ413-080145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
319 AM AKST Sun Jan 7 2018

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 10 to 25 kt becoming SE 20 to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 10 to 16 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. Rain.
.MON...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 18 to 21 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.

$$

PKZ414-080145-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
319 AM AKST Sun Jan 7 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt increasing to 30 to 45 kt after
midnight. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.MON...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.

$$

062 
FZAK62 PAFC 080021
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
321 PM AKST Sun Jan 7 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-081445-
321 PM AKST Sun Jan 7 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 951 mb low at 47N 178E moves to 52N 176W at 952 mb Mon afternoon
and then moves to 51N 174W at 972 mb Tue afternoon. The associated
front reaches the Alaska Peninsula Mon morning and weakens as it
moves northward through Tue.

$$

PKZ411-081445-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
321 PM AKST Sun Jan 7 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft. Snow and rain.
.MON...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Snow and rain.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 20 ft. Rain and snow.
.TUE...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 19 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

PKZ412-081445-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
321 PM AKST Sun Jan 7 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt increasing to 25 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.MON...E wind 35 to 45 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 17 to 22 ft. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 19 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 14 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ413-081445-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
321 PM AKST Sun Jan 7 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...E wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 17 to 20 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 20 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

PKZ414-081445-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
321 PM AKST Sun Jan 7 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt becoming E 30 to 45 kt after
midnight. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Rain.
.MON...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

921 
FZAK62 PAFC 081234
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
334 AM AKST Mon Jan 8 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-090215-
334 AM AKST Mon Jan 8 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 948 mb low at 50N 177W moves to 51N 177W at 960 mb by Tue
morning then moves to 50N 169W at 978 mb by Wed morning. The 
associated front moves across the Alaska Peninsula this morning.

$$

PKZ411-090215-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
334 AM AKST Mon Jan 8 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. Rain showers and
snow showers.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 16 to 20 ft. Rain.
.TUE...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 18 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

PKZ412-090215-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
334 AM AKST Mon Jan 8 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 21 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ413-090215-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
334 AM AKST Mon Jan 8 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 17 to 21 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 20 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 16 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

PKZ414-090215-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
334 AM AKST Mon Jan 8 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

301 
FZAK62 PAFC 090014
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
314 PM AKST Mon Jan 8 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-091400-
314 PM AKST Mon Jan 8 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 952 mb low at 51N 177W moves to 50N 173W at 969 mb Tue
afternoon and then dissipates Wed morning. A second 975 mb low at
48N 171E moves to 48N 173W at 965 mb Wed afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-091400-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
314 PM AKST Mon Jan 8 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 16 to 19 ft. Snow.
.TUE...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 18 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ412-091400-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
314 PM AKST Mon Jan 8 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt diminishing to 25 to 35 kt after midnight.
Seas 16 to 21 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ413-091400-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
314 PM AKST Mon Jan 8 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 20 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.WED...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

PKZ414-091400-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
314 PM AKST Mon Jan 8 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft. Rain and snow 
showers.
.TUE...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.

$$

979 
FZAK62 PAFC 091300
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
400 AM AKST Tue Jan 9 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-100130-
400 AM AKST Tue Jan 9 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 960 mb low at 51N 177W moves to 53N 172W at 967 mb then remains
nearly stationary and dissipates by Wed morning. A 971 mb low Wed
morning at 47N 180E moves to 51N 168W at 960 mb by Thu morning. A
995 mb low at 52N 149W Wed morning moves to 55N 153W and 
dissipates by Thu morning.

$$

PKZ411-100130-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
400 AM AKST Tue Jan 9 2018

.TODAY...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 17 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt becoming 10 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
8 to 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.

$$

PKZ412-100130-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
400 AM AKST Tue Jan 9 2018

.TODAY...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 17 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ413-100130-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
400 AM AKST Tue Jan 9 2018

.TODAY...NE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.WED...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

PKZ414-100130-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
400 AM AKST Tue Jan 9 2018

.TODAY...E wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
458 AM AKST Sat Jan 6 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A front moving across Southwest Alaska and the Gulf is quickly
weakening and falling apart over the area this morning. Thus, the
associated precipitation is becoming more scattered and losing
intensity with time as it moves north. The most telltale sign of
the frontolysis is the rapidly warming cloud top temperatures over
the region as soon by infrared satellite. The 00Z Anchorage
sounding shows a strong inversion over the Bowl, and that is
reflected in temperatures in the upper 10s to lower 20s through
the Bowl, but readings are closer to 30 at higher elevations such
as Glen Alps. The inversion is a stable weather pattern
preventing atmospheric mixing, which in turn is keeping the low
level moisture trapped near the surface, resulting in areas of fog
and low stratus.

In the upper levels, a negatively tilted upper level trough
extends well eastward from a sprawling upper level low over the
far western Bering. The trough is coincident with the dying
surface front, and it too is weakening with time. However, it's
still supporting the surface front enough to keep a pressure
gradient ongoing, which may help to advect some of the fog out of
Southcentral later today. More on the forecast below. The final
upper level feature of note is a second shortwave trough
extending south from the upper level low over the western Bering.
The shortwave is ushering in more ridging and warmer air aloft
behind the wave, briefly switching up the upper level weather
pattern.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

The models are all in excellent agreement over the next two days
regarding all of the major weather features expected to traverse
the area. Thus, there really was no preferred model over any of
the others. Any large scale forecast changes only reflected
differences that all of the models have locked on to. The forecast
challenges therefore will revolve around small-scale features that
none of the models have a particularly good record tracking, such
as where and when fog will develop, the strength of the gap winds,
and other local weather phenomena. Therefore, forecast confidence
is high.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist. Fog will be in
the vicinity of the airport through the morning, but will remain
patchy. Northerly winds will advect any remaining fog away by mid
morning as a dying front approaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The east-to-west oriented weather front in the northern Gulf will
slowly move north today, then stall and weaken tonight along the
north Gulf coast. Almost all of the precipitation with this system
will fall near the coast, over the Kenai Peninsula, and over the
eastern Copper River Basin. Most other areas will not see any
precipitation, though abundant moisture will keep things rather
cloudy. The upper level trough responsible for the front will
"close off" into an upper low near Kodiak Island on Sunday, moving
east into the Gulf Sunday night. At the same time an upper level
high to the north will build south into Southcentral Alaska,
drying out the atmosphere and leading to clearing skies and an
end to the showers.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The King Salmon radar has detected rain near Pilot Point extending
north of Dillingham and Levelock. The models have the remnants of
the moisture pushing north as the trough lifts and changing over
to snow. One to four inches of new snow will blanket portions of
southwest. Sunday precipitable water values transition from half
an inch to roughly a quarter of an inch across the region. At the
surface, expect the precipitation to taper off with only isolated
snow showers Sunday night. Monday there will be a lull before the
next storm moves into the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
The broad cold core low centered over the western Bering will
continue to weaken as it ambles northward. A rapidly intensifying
storm will track towards Adak. The system's surface low will
drop roughly 24 mb in 24 hrs from 12z today to 12z Sunday. Both
the GFS and the ECMWF have the surface low at 950 mb and
virtually on top of Adak on Monday. At its apex, the pressure
gradient span from Attu to the AK Pen. This low will bring some
fierce seas and prolonged gusty winds to the chain beginning
Sunday and into Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
Beginning Sunday night, a deep storm force low will be making its
way northward across the Aleutian Chain and into the southern
Bering Sea with an occluded front spreading north and east across
the Bering Sea. Strong height rises out ahead of this system will
re-enforce ridging over northern Alaska, though it will re-center
farther west toward Siberia. The GFS is a big outlier in
maintaining two separate upper level high centers which results
in a fundamentally different solution as we head through the week.
For the moment, will stick with the idea that ridging will
persist over mainland Alaska, keeping storminess confined to the
Bering Sea and Gulf. Thus, most of Southcentral and Southwest
Alaska will be seasonably cool and dry, with coastal areas seeing
occasional clouds and a chance of precipitation. The Bering Sea,
Aleutians, Alaska Peninsula, Kodiak Island, and the Gulf will see
continued active weather, which means warm, windy, and wet for
much of this region.

One feature to keep an eye on is an arctic trough dropping down
the east side of the upper ridge on Monday, southward across the
Yukon Territory. Some models, led by the ECMWF, dig this
southwestward into Southcentral Alaska, around the south side of
the upper ridge. This would result in colder temperatures and
perhaps an offshore wind event along the Gulf coast. For now,
trended slightly in that direction, but with so much uncertainty
in position of morphing upper level ridge, will have to wait until
models get a better lock before considering further changes to
the forecast.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Storm 176 177.
         Gale 119 130 131 173 174 175 178 411 412 413.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JPW
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PS
LONG TERM...SEB