Gale Warning 700, NWS Anchorage, AK

881 
FZAK52 PAFC 190018
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
318 PM AKST Sun Nov 18 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-191300-
318 PM AKST Sun Nov 18 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 992 mb low over Mekoryuk will remain nearly stationary through 
Mon morning then it will move inland over Bethel Mon afternoon. 
High pressure builds in the western Bering Tue morning. 

$$

PKZ150-191300-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
318 PM AKST Sun Nov 18 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind increasing to 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ155-191300-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
318 PM AKST Sun Nov 18 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt except NW 30 kt from the Shumagin Islands
E. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ160-191300-
Bristol Bay-
318 PM AKST Sun Nov 18 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 5 
ft building to 10 ft after midnight. Areas of fog.
.MON...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the late afternoon. Seas
11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 
7 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ165-191300-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
318 PM AKST Sun Nov 18 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt except W 15 kt from Port Moller E. Seas
11 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ170-191300-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
318 PM AKST Sun Nov 18 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt becoming NW. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ171-191300-
Unalaska Bay-
318 PM AKST Sun Nov 18 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming W 25 kt after midnight. Seas 2
ft building to 4 ft after midnight. Rain.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-191300-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
318 PM AKST Sun Nov 18 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...E wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ173-191300-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
318 PM AKST Sun Nov 18 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...E wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ174-191300-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
318 PM AKST Sun Nov 18 2018

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt becoming NW 25 kt after midnight. Seas
15 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ175-191300-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
318 PM AKST Sun Nov 18 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ176-191300-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
318 PM AKST Sun Nov 18 2018

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 
15 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...S wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ177-191300-
Adak to Kiska-
318 PM AKST Sun Nov 18 2018

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...SW wind 35 kt becoming NW 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 14 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ178-191300-
Kiska to Attu-
318 PM AKST Sun Nov 18 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 
10 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ179-191300-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
318 PM AKST Sun Nov 18 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ180-191300-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
318 PM AKST Sun Nov 18 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
11 ft subsiding to 7 ft in the afternoon.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ181-191300-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
318 PM AKST Sun Nov 18 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Snow.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ185-191300-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
318 PM AKST Sun Nov 18 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...NW 20 kt W of 
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

163 
FZAK52 PAFC 191251
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
351 AM AKST Mon Nov 19 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-200130-
351 AM AKST Mon Nov 19 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

Low pressure over the western Aleutians will move over the Alaska
Peninsula Tue morning. A front moves over the western Aleutians
Tue evening. 

$$

PKZ150-200130-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
351 AM AKST Mon Nov 19 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8
ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ155-200130-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
351 AM AKST Mon Nov 19 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. From the Shumagin Islands E, SW wind 20 kt
becoming NW 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ160-200130-
Bristol Bay-
351 AM AKST Mon Nov 19 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt becoming NW 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft
building to 7 ft in the afternoon. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ165-200130-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
351 AM AKST Mon Nov 19 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt except W 15 kt from Port Moller E. Seas
9 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ170-200130-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
351 AM AKST Mon Nov 19 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ171-200130-
Unalaska Bay-
351 AM AKST Mon Nov 19 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt becoming W 30 kt after midnight. Seas 2
ft building to 5 ft after midnight. Widespread rain showers.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-200130-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
351 AM AKST Mon Nov 19 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...E wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ173-200130-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
351 AM AKST Mon Nov 19 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...E wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ174-200130-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
351 AM AKST Mon Nov 19 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ175-200130-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
351 AM AKST Mon Nov 19 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt becoming W 20 kt after midnight. Seas
11 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ176-200130-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
351 AM AKST Mon Nov 19 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt becoming NW 20 kt after midnight. Seas
14 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...S wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ177-200130-
Adak to Kiska-
351 AM AKST Mon Nov 19 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ178-200130-
Kiska to Attu-
351 AM AKST Mon Nov 19 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ179-200130-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
351 AM AKST Mon Nov 19 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ180-200130-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
351 AM AKST Mon Nov 19 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ181-200130-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
351 AM AKST Mon Nov 19 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ185-200130-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
351 AM AKST Mon Nov 19 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.  Snow and rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

365 
FZAK52 PAFC 200037
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
337 PM AKST Mon Nov 19 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-201315-
337 PM AKST Mon Nov 19 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A front over the central Aleutians Mon afternoon will move over 
Bristol Bay and the Alaska Peninsula through Wed afternoon. A 
second front moves over the western Aleutians by Wed afternoon 
associated with a 963 mb low 380 nm west of Shemya.

$$

PKZ150-201315-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
337 PM AKST Mon Nov 19 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. E of Chirikof Island, W wind 25 kt
diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt becoming W 25 kt in the afternoon. E of Chirikof
Island, SW wind 15 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. E of Chirikof Island, NW wind 15 kt in 
the morning increasing to 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ155-201315-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
337 PM AKST Mon Nov 19 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt, except W 25 kt from the Shumagin Islands
E. Seas 11 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. From the Shumagin Islands E, SW wind 20 kt
becoming NW 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ160-201315-
Bristol Bay-
337 PM AKST Mon Nov 19 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt becoming variable 10 kt after midnight. Seas
7 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight. Rain showers.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt becoming NW 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft
building to 7 ft in the afternoon. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ165-201315-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
337 PM AKST Mon Nov 19 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt except W 20 kt from Port Moller E. Seas
10 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. From Port Moller E, W 20 kt becoming NW 30 kt.
Seas 11 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ170-201315-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
337 PM AKST Mon Nov 19 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt becoming NW after midnight. Seas 12 ft. 
Widespread rain showers.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...E wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ171-201315-
Unalaska Bay-
337 PM AKST Mon Nov 19 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt becoming W 30 kt after midnight. Seas 2
ft building to 10 ft after midnight. Widespread rain showers.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10 
ft subsiding to 7 ft in the afternoon.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-201315-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
337 PM AKST Mon Nov 19 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt becoming NW after midnight. Seas 14 ft. 
Rain.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...E wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ173-201315-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
337 PM AKST Mon Nov 19 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...E wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ174-201315-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
337 PM AKST Mon Nov 19 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 
15 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ175-201315-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
337 PM AKST Mon Nov 19 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 
11 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt becoming variable 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 
8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming E 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 6 ft.
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...E wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ176-201315-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
337 PM AKST Mon Nov 19 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt becoming NW 20 kt after midnight. Seas
15 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt becoming NE in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ177-201315-
Adak to Kiska-
337 PM AKST Mon Nov 19 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 
11 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt becoming variable 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 
8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Bering
side, variable wind 10 kt in the evening becoming E 25 kt. Seas 8 
ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ178-201315-
Kiska to Attu-
337 PM AKST Mon Nov 19 2018

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt becoming E 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 30 kt increasing to 45 kt after midnight. Seas 8
ft building to 14 ft after midnight. Rain.
.WED...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ179-201315-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
337 PM AKST Mon Nov 19 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind increasing to 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt in the morning increasing to 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ180-201315-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
337 PM AKST Mon Nov 19 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind increasing to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain showers and snow 
showers.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ181-201315-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
337 PM AKST Mon Nov 19 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind increasing to 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Snow showers.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain showers and snow 
showers.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ185-201315-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
337 PM AKST Mon Nov 19 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt in the evening increasing to 30 kt. Seas 11
ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Snow and rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
432 PM AKST Sat Nov 17 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The pattern remains dominated by southerly flow bringing up plenty
of warm air and moisture from the North Pacific. This is all
courtesy of a potent upper level jet at 30,000' (300mb). The jet
is mostly zonal at upwards of 150 kts south of the Aleutians. This
is allowing a broad trough to sit over the Bering. However, the
jet then takes a sharp turn northward towards Southcentral at
about 90 kts. Several wave of energy are visible on satellite
riding up on this jet stream. The initial front produced several
inches of snow over the southern Copper River Basin. Then a
trailing shortwave brought some light freezing rain this morning
to parts of the Anchorage Bowl and Matanuska Valley. The next wave
is already visible on satellite just approaching the southern tip
of the Kenai Peninsula. The warm, moist air is also impacting
Southwest AK with rain falling all the way from Bethel down to
King Salmon.

Its only out in the western portion of the aforementioned trough
over the Western Aleutians that is seeing any real cold air to
speak of. The pattern will remain progressive and dynamic through
the week. This could ultimately allow some of this cold air to
return to the mainland by week's end.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...Models are not handling things well today.
Several pieces of energy are moving into the North Pacific and
then turning sharply towards Kodiak Island/Kenai Peninsula. As has
often been the case this Fall, this track has proven challenging
for the models to lock onto a solution. This morning's wave that
moved through Southcentral was not picked up at all by the models.
They look to be in better agreement with the weak one tracking
towards the Kenai this evening. However, by late Sun-Mon, there
are marked differences in how they handled the stronger system in
the Gulf of AK. This forecast package leans towards the more
consistent EC and GFS, trying to paint the closed surface low
tracking due south of Seward. The QPF on the GFS seemed a bit
heavy while the NAM was excessively drying things due to some
downsloping. So we took a middle-ground approach with
precipitation amounts as well. All models do agree that this
system appears warm enough that all locations near sea-level will
see rain (versus snow).

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...One weak passing wave will trigger some showers this
evening, but ceilings should remain VFR. When the stronger front
arrives early Sun morning, rain intensity should increase. This
will allow ceilings to slowly lower, possibly reaching MVFR by
daybreak. There could be some light wind shear by Sun morning as
well with surface winds staying out of the northeast as mountain-
top switches to southeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Southerly flow between upper level troughing over Southwest Alaska
and the eastern Bering and ridging over the Southeast Alaska
Panhandle and western Canada will continue to direct warm, moist
air up into Southcentral Alaska. The next frontal wave currently
over Kodiak Island will lift north through the Gulf tonight and
then continue further inland into Southcentral Alaska Sunday. The
next frontal wave will track north into the Gulf Sunday night,
continuing north to stall in the vicinity of the Kenai Peninsula
Monday night and Tuesday.

Temperature across the Anchorage Bowl and through much of the
Matanuska valley have warmed into the mid to upper 30s this
afternoon with low 40s along the Hillside with only a couple areas
such as the Eagle River Valley and Willow area lingering near 30.
While precipitation in these colder valleys may start out with
some light freezing rain mixed in, precipitation with the next
frontal system will be predominately rain with temperatures
remaining steady or warming slightly tonight through Sunday.

A bit more low level cold air remains trapped in the Copper River
Basin with overrunning mixed precipitation types continuing to be
a concern, however precipitation amount and coverage in that area
will initially be more limited through Sunday morning. Precipitation
spreading across the Copper River Basin with a weak frontal wave
Sunday afternoon and a stronger one late Sunday night could be
more problematic depending on how persistent the low level cold
air is.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
The upper level short-wave trough that stretches from the
Kuskokwim Delta through Bristol Bay will push northeast through
the area tonight. The parent upper low over the central Bering Sea
will drift slowly towards the southeast. The associated low level
front will weaken as it moves through. This will bring rain,
snow, and freezing rain to southwest Alaska. The freezing rain
will mostly fall in the lower Kuskokwim valley, with some also
possible north of Bethel as these areas still have fairly cool
temperatures at the surface. South of these areas the
precipitation will be mainly rain with quite warm temperatures,
except some snow in the higher elevations. On Sunday and Sunday
night, the upper level flow will remain southerly with the upper
low only slowly moving eastward. Precipitation will diminish to
scattered showers, and the snow level will slowly fall as heights
diminish. The upper low will open up into a trough by Monday
morning, with a low moving eastward across the northern Bering
becoming the main low. This low will then move into southwest
Alaska Monday night and Tuesday, with fairly strong northwesterly
flow behind it.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...
The upper low over the central Bering will move southeast tonight
and into southwest Alaska by late in the day Sunday. A ridge will
build briefly behind this low, and ahead of the next low. This
next low will send a fairly weak front through the Bering from
west to east Sunday morning through Monday morning, dissipating in
the far eastern Bering by Sunday afternoon. Another front will
push across the southern Bering and Aleutians Sunday evening
through Monday, reaching the Alaska Peninsula Monday evening. This
front will be stronger than the previous one with both winds and
precipitation. By Tuesday a flat ridge will be across most of the
Bering and Aleutians, with west to northwest winds at the surface.
The ridge is weak enough that some scattered showers will persist
in the eastern Bering and eastern Aleutians.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7/Tuesday night through
Saturday)...

Some change for the positive today in the long term, in that
models are finally showing a decent picture of what might happen
next week. Going with a GFS/ECMWF solution for the long term as
those have been consistent enough the past few days to put some
trust in them. Both show troughing over southcentral AK through
Wednesday and ridging over the western and central Aleutians
through the middle of the week.

As with yesterday, ridging slowly works its way across the
Aleutians, to be over SW AK on Friday. This was similar to
yesterday's solution, so am able to put some stock in it. This
means a general cooling trend and finally perhaps some clearing of
weather later next week for southcentral and SW AK, as the ridge
will bring in some cool, dry air from the north. Confidence still
needs to grow with the above. With the way models have been
handling the weather lately, need to see this same solution for
another day or two to really buy it. The western Aleutians are
also a wash after the middle of next week, with models varying
widely with the track of the next low after ridging moves east out
of the area midweek.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory...152.
MARINE...Gales...119 130 155 165 170 172 179.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JR
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...BL
LONG TERM...BB