Gale Warning 693, NWS Anchorage, AK

812 
FZAK52 PAFC 140040
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
340 PM AKST Tue Nov 13 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-141400-
340 PM AKST Tue Nov 13 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A front over the central Bering weakens and moves into the Gulf. A
front enters the western Bering Wed morning and the associated low
moves 330 nm southwest of Shemya at 985 mb Thu afternoon. 

$$

PKZ150-141400-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
340 PM AKST Tue Nov 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ155-141400-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
340 PM AKST Tue Nov 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
From the Shumagin Islands E, N wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ160-141400-
Bristol Bay-
340 PM AKST Tue Nov 13 2018

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ165-141400-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
340 PM AKST Tue Nov 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 11 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ170-141400-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
340 PM AKST Tue Nov 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ171-141400-
Unalaska Bay-
340 PM AKST Tue Nov 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
10 ft subsiding to 5 ft after midnight. Rain showers.
.WED...NW wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft building to 5 ft after midnight.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ172-141400-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
340 PM AKST Tue Nov 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt through Unimak Pass in the
evening. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ173-141400-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
340 PM AKST Tue Nov 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ174-141400-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
340 PM AKST Tue Nov 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ175-141400-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
340 PM AKST Tue Nov 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ176-141400-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
340 PM AKST Tue Nov 13 2018

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ177-141400-
Adak to Kiska-
340 PM AKST Tue Nov 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...E wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ178-141400-
Kiska to Attu-
340 PM AKST Tue Nov 13 2018

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas
10 ft.
.THU...E wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ179-141400-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
340 PM AKST Tue Nov 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Snow showers and rain showers.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. Snow showers and rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ180-141400-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
340 PM AKST Tue Nov 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ181-141400-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
340 PM AKST Tue Nov 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ185-141400-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
340 PM AKST Tue Nov 13 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Widespread snow showers.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
352 PM AKST Mon Nov 12 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The fairly active pattern continues. On this afternoons weather
map a weakening low was located south of the eastern Aleutians
with another developing center heading rapidly north across the
southwestern Gulf toward Kodiak Island. A frontal zone extended
north from the low south of the AK Pen to across the western
interior. A broader frontal boundary extended across Southcentral,
through the northern Gulf to the developing center over the
southwest Gulf, then southeast to the northeast Pacific. Snow and
rain were evident along the front extending through the Pribilofs
to over the western mainland with areas of light freezing rain
reported over the Delta. This band was exiting to the north across
delta. Widespread rain, moderate to locally heavy at times was
observed across the Gulf Coasts with lighter amounts west of the
Chugach mountains across the Anchorage Bowl and Matanuska Valley.
Freezing levels were fairly high across Southcentral with values
in excess of 4000 ft. This produced rain or a mix even in the
higher elevations along the road system.

Fairly strong easterly winds were observed over the northern Gulf
in advance of the north moving low and frontal boundary. Gale force
northerly winds continued across Central and eastern Bering
Sea/Aleutians along and west of the frontal zone in the region.
Cold air pooling aloft over the north Pacific destabilized the
atmosphere and was by the presence of a large area of open cell
cumulus clouds and showers/thunderstorms well south of the AK Pen.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The numerical models are generally in good agreement with the
synoptic features. Namely with the main player which is heading
toward Kodiak Island and its associated frontal bounder heading
toward the north Gulf Coast.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Generally VFR conditions with periods of rain. Some IFR
conditions are possible this evening, and then again Tuesday
morning as some low stratus and fog may linger near the airport.
LLWS will be a concern through tonight as surface winds will
remain from the north with brisk southeast winds aloft.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A strong low in the southwestern Gulf of Alaska is moving
westward and just clipping the southernmost part of Kodiak Island
late this afternoon. Heavy rain and strong winds are accompanying
this low over Kodiak and along the north Gulf coast with
downsloping developing on the lee sides of the mountains.

This also means that the warm advection over Southcentral Alaska
has now reached its peak and there will be a slow cooling trend
the next few days as colder air aloft will begin to move into the
area overnight. Emphasis on 'slow.' With colder air aloft the
precipitation will become more convective in nature and there
will be the chance for some thunderstorms over the Gulf of Alaska
offshore waters overnight tonight and maybe into tomorrow morning.

With the Gulf low moving westward and then southwestward, it will
increase the offshore flow over Southcentral tomorrow into
Wednesday; therefore lowered the POPs around Southcentral for
those days. While the temperatures will be slowly dropping the
next two days, there will still be widespread high temperatures
above freezing Tuesday. Wednesday will be a little cooler and
while the airmass still is warm enough to support above freezing
temperatures, if the cloud cover diminishes a sooner on Tuesday
night, it could bring in a strong inversion that will be difficult
to break and lead to widespread stratus cloud development and
cooler daytime temperatures. Will have to wait and see if this
tips its hand over the next day or so.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Another frontal wave rotating from the western Gulf through
Southwest Alaska tonight through Tuesday morning will bring a
variety of precipitation types to the area. In the greater
Bristol Bay where temperatures are predominately above freezing,
precipitation will fall mainly as rain with a mix of freezing rain
and snow further inland and to the north of Dillingham.
Additionally, the breezy northerly winds will turn easterly and
increase again in speed as the surface low crosses the Alaska
Peninsula late tonight and tracks through Bristol early Tuesday
morning. Further to the north, in lower Kuskokwim Valley and
across the Kuskokwim Delta, with the entrenched cold low level
airmass and persisting northeasterly winds, precipitation with the
next front late tonight through midday Tuesday will fall as a mix
of freezing rain and snow. Weak upper level ridging will start
building over Southwest Alaska Tuesday night and then strengthen
Wednesday through Wednesday night for a brief midweek break in the
weather.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
North to northeasterly Gales across the Bering will gradually
diminish tonight through Tuesday as the mean center of the complex
upper level low rotating over and to the south of the Alaska
Peninsula shifts to the further to the east. The last of the
stronger frontal waves associated with the low will cross the
eastern Alaska Peninsula late tonight, rotate through Bristol Bay
Tuesday morning and then track back to the west down and south
across the Alaska Peninsula through Tuesday afternoon and evening.
A north Pacific frontal system will lift north over the western
Aleutians on Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The long-term forecast begins Wednesday night with a continuation
of an active pattern across Alaska. The main features are a broad
upper-level trough axis positioned from the Bering to well south
of the AKPEN with a pair of flattened mid-level ridges bookending
the trough. There is also a (sub) tropical connection to the
trough as it draws up plenty of warmer air and moisture
originating north of Hawaii. This is reflected at the surface by a
low moving north through the Pacific on Thursday and centering
near Kodiak Island for Friday with its warm front stretching along
the southern coast. This feature and the upper-level trough then
both become negatively tilted as the system occludes and the ridge
downstream re-amplifies across the Alaska Panhandle. By Saturday,
the low begins to weaken as it and its corresponding upper-level
shortwave eject northeast over the northern Alaska Panhandle in
response to a second, deeper trough sliding east across the
Aleutians and reinforcing the longwave trough centered over the
eastern Bering/AKPEN.

As is the usually the case in the long term, there are plenty of
subtle differences concerning the exact timing of the shortwaves
moving through the Gulf and across the Aleutians. The GFS has been
the most bullish (most progressive) of the suite of extended
range guidance, but it has also been performing the best of late
(although the EC and Canadian also agree on the long wave setup).
Therefore, the extended forecast is weighted more toward the
GFS/GEFS solution. This keeps a weak trough over the eastern
Bering through the end of the week as the northward moving Pacific
low spreads clouds and precipitation over the AKPEN by Thursday
and over southcentral by Friday. Farther west, a weakening
occluded front over the western Aleutians on Thursday will spin up
a new triple point low over the central Bering by Friday. This is
the feature that will intensify quickly as it moves into the
eastern Bering. Precipitation type may be a concern again later in
the week as the weather pattern remains similar to that (areas of
colder air at the surface with much warmer air over-running
aloft) which brought the mixed bag of precipitation to much of
southern Alaska this past weekend.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory (Mixed Precip) 152 155.
MARINE...Storm Warning 119.
 Gale Warning 120 125 130>132 136>140 160 175 180 181 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JR
LONG TERM...TM