Gale Warning 663, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

Nov 3, 2018, 3:49 PM AKDT (23:49 UTC)

Expired

Nov 4, 2018, 3:45 AM AKST

In force

13 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

823 
FZAK52 PAFC 032349
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
349 PM AKDT Sat Nov 3 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-041245-
349 PM AKDT Sat Nov 3 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A front over the central Bering moves inland to the east Sat
night. A second front enters the western Bering Sun afternoon. The
associated Kamchatka low moves 360 nm west of Saint Paul Mon 
afternoon at 980 mb.

$$

PKZ150-041245-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
349 PM AKDT Sat Nov 3 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt becoming N 20 kt after midnight. Seas 18 ft
subsiding to 15 ft after midnight.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 15 ft subsiding to 11 ft in the afternoon.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ155-041245-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
349 PM AKDT Sat Nov 3 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. From the Shumagin Islands E, NW wind 25
kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ160-041245-
Bristol Bay-
349 PM AKDT Sat Nov 3 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt becoming N 15 kt after midnight. Seas 5
ft.
.SUN...NW wind 10 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ165-041245-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
349 PM AKDT Sat Nov 3 2018

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 kt becoming SW after midnight. Seas 4 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ170-041245-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
349 PM AKDT Sat Nov 3 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight.
Seas 5 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 24 ft.

$$

PKZ171-041245-
Unalaska Bay-
349 PM AKDT Sat Nov 3 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt becoming variable 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3
ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-041245-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
349 PM AKDT Sat Nov 3 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ173-041245-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
349 PM AKDT Sat Nov 3 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...W wind 35 kt. Seas 28 ft.

$$

PKZ174-041245-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
349 PM AKDT Sat Nov 3 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ175-041245-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
349 PM AKDT Sat Nov 3 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt becoming SW 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain showers.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.THU...W wind 35 kt. Seas 26 ft.

$$

PKZ176-041245-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
349 PM AKDT Sat Nov 3 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ177-041245-
Adak to Kiska-
349 PM AKDT Sat Nov 3 2018

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...W wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.THU...W wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ178-041245-
Kiska to Attu-
349 PM AKDT Sat Nov 3 2018

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft building to 16 ft in the afternoon.
Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft building to 23 ft after midnight.
Snow showers.
.MON...W wind 40 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...W wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ179-041245-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
349 PM AKDT Sat Nov 3 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt becoming S 30 kt after midnight. Seas
5 ft building to 10 ft after midnight.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 24 ft.

$$

PKZ180-041245-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
349 PM AKDT Sat Nov 3 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt becoming NW 10 kt after midnight. Seas
6 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming SW 25 kt after midnight. Seas
5 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ181-041245-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
349 PM AKDT Sat Nov 3 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable less than 10 kt in the evening becoming SW 15 kt.
Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft building to 7 ft after midnight.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ185-041245-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
349 PM AKDT Sat Nov 3 2018

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...E of Saint Matthew Island, SW wind 15 kt. W of Saint
Matthew Island, SW wind 20 kt becoming S 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 5 ft except 8 ft w of Saint Matthew Island.
.SUN NIGHT...E of Saint Matthew Island, S wind 20 kt increasing to 35
kt after midnight. W of Saint Matthew Island, S wind 35 kt. Seas 13 
ft. Rain showers.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE...W wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Nov 3, 4:43 AM AKDT, 11 hours 6 minutes earlier.

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
443 AM AKDT Sat Nov 3 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

An area of high pressure was centered near Fairbanks, with a low
further south centered near Cold Bay. Normally this would look
like a Rex Block, however it's a progressive pattern, thus
negating the block. A front progressing through the occlusion
process is stretched from the Cold Bay low eastward into the Gulf
with widespread rainfall accompanying it.

Isolated thunderstorms have also developed behind the front
southeast and east of Kodiak. As a vort max in the flow is
supplying additional ascent, and dry advection over the moist
lower levels are interacting with this lift. Producing sufficient
vertical velocities to lift the moisture condensation high enough
for charge separation (high enough into the colder air aloft for
lightning to develop). Strong winds have also been prevalent near
the area of low pressure and the front.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

All of the short range numerical guidance remains in excellent
agreement at the surface and aloft, leading to a high confidence
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The front over the northern Gulf will weaken today and then
dissipate tonight. Precipitation with this front will be limited
mainly to the Gulf coast and surrounding mountains. Virtually no
precipitation will make it inland past the coastal mountains as
high pressure remains over the interior, although considerable
clouds are expected. The low responsible for the front will cross
the Gulf from east to west tonight and Sunday. As it does this,
northerly offshore flow will increase with strong gap winds
developing. Southcentral will then return to a period of clear
and dry weather.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2: Today through
Sunday Night)...

Southwest Alaska remains in between high pressure which remains
over interior Alaska, and a weakening area of low pressure
tracking south of Cold Bay this morning. The primary impact from
this meteorological setup is continuing breezy conditions,
primarily through the gaps in the Alaska and Aleutian Ranges.
Isolated rain showers persist near Dillingham, but as the low
weakens, the upslope winds up the Kuskokwim Mountains should cause
a gradual weakening of the shower activity during the day today.
The relaxing pressure gradient between the aforementioned areas of
high and low pressure should also result in diminishing winds
across the area as well today. Otherwise, a quiet weekend is
expected weather-wise, with high pressure keeping conditions dry.
Thus, the two notable points to mention here will be cooling low
temperatures both Sunday and Monday mornings, with Sunday morning
being the colder of the two. Clear skies and light winds will mean
lows will dip to near 0 in portions of the Lower Kuskokwim
Valley. Secondly, warming temperatures in the middle levels of the
atmosphere along with either calm winds or light onshore winds
Sunday Night should result in widespread freezing fog for much of
the area for Monday morning. A saving grace along the Kuskokwim
Delta will be a rapidly approaching front moving in from the
Bering which will increase the cloud cover and the winds ahead of
it, which may scour out the fog during the early morning hours
Monday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2: Today
through Sunday Night)...

The area of low pressure that has caused the active weather across
the central and eastern Aleutians, Alaska Peninsula, and southern
Bering for the past couple days is finally on its way out of the
area. The center is tracking eastward towards the Gulf south of
the Alaska Peninsula. As the low weakens and moves away, winds
will be diminishing especially tonight across the eastern Bering.
The next feature will be a strong cold front expected to move into
the western Bering Sunday morning. Initially through Monday
morning, it will be associated with a low that most of the models
expect will remain centered along the coast of eastern Russia, as
opposed to taking a track further out into the western Bering. The
result of this looks to be a significantly weaker solution as
regards its associated winds, with storm force winds no longer
expected as it tracks through the central and northern Bering late
Sunday night into Monday morning. A renewed blast of cold air will
follow behind the front.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7/Monday through Friday)...

Not much change in the extended forecast today for Anchorage
forecast area. Cold and dry conditions are expected to continue
for the mainland, with storms moving across the Bering Sea through
the end of next week. In the upper levels, a strong ridge over the
mainland maintains its hold, keeping a strong low over the western
Bering Sea. This low will track northward through the Kamchatka
Peninsula, bringing gale force winds to the Bering Sea through
Wednesday, but relatively few impacts otherwise. Although the
front from this storm is anticipated to move over the mainland on
Wednesday, it should be relatively weak and precipitation is not
expected to make it very far inland.

As the Bering Sea low weakens, another low is expected to approach
the area from the northern Pacific. Again, the upper level ridge
should help deflect this feature off towards the east. Yesterday's
model runs were in more disagreement on what would happen with
this low, but today, they've come more into alignment, with the
surface low crossing the Gulf of Alaska toward Yakutat late
Wednesday and into Thursday. This should bring some outflow winds
to the Southcentral region, but precipitation impacts are expected
to be confined to the Gulf Coast.

For the end of next week, models are picking up on a stronger low
pressure system crossing the Bering Sea closer to the Aleutians than
the storm we see moving through the Bering earlier in the week.
Models were indicating a similar solution yesterday, so
consistency in the runs leads to more confidence that this will
occur. This track has the potential to bring winds and waves to
the southwest coast, so the forecast bears watching for the next
few days to detect any changing trends.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gales: 120, 130, 139 177, 178, 411, 412, 413.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JW
LONG TERM...LF

Gale Warnings in Alaska, 2018Every gale warning in 2018

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.