Gale Warning 629, NWS Anchorage, AK

915 
FZAK62 PAFC 060041
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
341 PM AKST Mon Nov 5 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-061430-
341 PM AKST Mon Nov 5 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 978 mb low at 58N 177E Mon afternoon moves to 63N 170W at 994 mb
by Tue afternoon. A front approaches the western Aleutians by Wed
morning.

$$

PKZ411-061430-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
341 PM AKST Mon Nov 5 2018

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 to 50 kt. Seas 16 to 31 ft. Isolated 
thunderstorms.
.TUE...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 15 to 30 ft.
.THU...W wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 18 to 33 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.SAT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ412-061430-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
341 PM AKST Mon Nov 5 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 30 ft. Rain showers.
Isolated thunderstorms.
.TUE...W wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 15 to 30 ft.
.SAT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 12 to 15 ft.

$$

PKZ413-061430-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
341 PM AKST Mon Nov 5 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 25 ft. Isolated
thunderstorms.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft. Isolated thunderstorms in the
morning.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 14 to 29 ft.

$$

PKZ414-061430-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
341 PM AKST Mon Nov 5 2018

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt becoming 15 to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
8 to 16 ft. Isolated thunderstorms.
.TUE...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.WED...W wind up to 15 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.

$$

674 
FZAK62 PAFC 061257
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
357 AM AKST Tue Nov 6 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-070245-
357 AM AKST Tue Nov 6 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 988 mb low at 60N 176E moves to 67N 160W then inland for Wed
afternoon. Its front sweeps from the Bering into Western Alaska by 
Wed afternoon. A 1010 mb South Kamchatka low moves to 60N 177E at 985
mb Thu morning. Its front pushes across the Bering into the Eastern 
Aleutians through Thu morning.

$$

PKZ411-070245-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
357 AM AKST Tue Nov 6 2018

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Widespread rain
showers.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 15 to 30 ft.
.THU...W wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 16 to 31 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.SAT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ412-070245-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
357 AM AKST Tue Nov 6 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft. Isolated
thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.WED...SW wind 10 to 20 kt becoming S 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 15 to 30 ft.
.SAT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 12 to 15 ft.

$$

PKZ413-070245-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
357 AM AKST Tue Nov 6 2018

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.WED...SW wind 10 to 20 kt becoming S 20 to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 14 to 29 ft.

$$

PKZ414-070245-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
357 AM AKST Tue Nov 6 2018

.TODAY...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.

$$

355 
FZAK62 PAFC 070027
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
327 PM AKST Tue Nov 6 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-071415-
327 PM AKST Tue Nov 6 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 994 mb low at 62N 171W moves inland Wed morning. A 990 mb
Kamchatka low moves to 60N 178W Thu afternoon at 983 mb.

$$

PKZ411-071415-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
327 PM AKST Tue Nov 6 2018

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 to 20 kt becoming SW 15 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Widespread rain
showers.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 16 to 31 ft. Rain and snow 
showers.
.THU...W wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 21 to 33 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 16 to 29 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.

$$

PKZ412-071415-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
327 PM AKST Tue Nov 6 2018

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.WED...SW wind 10 to 20 kt becoming S 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 16 to 31 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 22 to 34 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.

$$

PKZ413-071415-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
327 PM AKST Tue Nov 6 2018

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.WED...SW wind 10 to 20 kt becoming S 20 to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft building to 10
to 18 ft after midnight. Rain.
.THU...W wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 29 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 18 to 29 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 20 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.

$$

PKZ414-071415-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
327 PM AKST Tue Nov 6 2018

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.WED...W wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind up to 20 kt becoming S 15 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 5 to 10 ft. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.SAT...SW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

339 
FZAK62 PAFC 071254
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
354 AM AKST Wed Nov 7 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-080230-
354 AM AKST Wed Nov 7 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 997 mb low at 56N 165E moves to 61N 172W at 989 mb for Fri 
morning. Its front pushes across the Bering into Western Alaska 
and across the Alaska Peninsula by Fri morning. Several troughs 
slide over the Western Bering through Fri morning.

$$

PKZ411-080230-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
354 AM AKST Wed Nov 7 2018

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 to 35 kt becoming SW 30 to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 16 to 31 ft. Rain showers and
snow showers.
.THU...W wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 22 to 36 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 17 to 32 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.

$$

PKZ412-080230-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
354 AM AKST Wed Nov 7 2018

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt becoming S 20 to 35 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft building to 11 to
19 ft after midnight. Widespread rain showers.
.THU...W wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 15 to 30 ft building to 21 to 36 ft 
in the afternoon. Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 23 to 38 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.SAT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.

$$

PKZ413-080230-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
354 AM AKST Wed Nov 7 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 10 to 25 kt becoming S 20 to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 7 to 11 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft building to 11 to
19 ft after midnight. Rain.
.THU...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 30 ft. Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 21 to 32 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.

$$

PKZ414-080230-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
354 AM AKST Wed Nov 7 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt becoming S 20 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 5 to 10 ft. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft building to 10 to 18 ft 
in the afternoon. Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 28 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
908 PM AKST Sun Nov 4 2018

Update to the LongTerm Forecast

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
Ridging continues to dominate mainland Alaska with the axis
extending across the Alaska Peninsula and through Bristol Bay and
the Lower Kuskokwim Valley. On the east side of the ridging a
shortwave is pushing south through Southcentral Alaska which has
enhanced outflow winds in the gaps around the north Gulf coast.
West of the ridge, a weak front is pushing in over the Kuskokwim
Delta and even further out west a front is bringing rain to the
western Aleutians as it tracks east.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The models have a fairly good handle on the main features in the
short term but are struggling with timing and location of the main
lows and fronts in the mid term. The 12Z runs are in better
agreement with the low moving into the Gulf Tuesday night but are
struggling with the timing of its associated front as it
approaches the north Gulf coast. There is also disagreement on
timing and location of a low moving into the western Bering
Wednesday with the NAM furthest north and the EC furthest south.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Dry conditions persist through Tuesday across Southcentral as a
surface ridge across the central interior shifts to the Alcan
border. An upper level wave dives south toward the gulf tonight as
the upper ridge axis aligns over the west mainland. This energy
forces a tighter pressure gradient along the coast bringing an
increase of winds for north to south oriented gaps. These winds
should slacken Monday afternoon with the upper ridge shifting
across the southern Gulf.

The next front moves up to the southern Gulf late Tuesday
afternoon, spreading rain across the southern waters along with
gusty easterly gales. There is still a bit of uncertainty on the
track and timing with this quickly developing storm system. The
front is expected to move to the coast by Wednesday afternoon as
the surface low tracks northeast. Upper level short waves
propagating northwest from the storm core will allow a few showers
to move inland. Precipitation along the gulf coastal areas will
be rain with this warm core system with showers inland falling as
snow with a cold air mass in place.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2: Today
through Monday Night)...

A weakening trough approaching the coast is pushing a band of
clouds west to east from Bristol Bay north to the YK Delta this
evening. Moisture is very limited with this system; however any
precipitation that does reach the below-freezing surface will
fall through a layer of warm air aloft, resulting in pockets of
light freezing drizzle from Dillingham north to Bethel through the
evening hours. Very minor ice accumulations are possible around
the Kuskokwim Delta, where the most persistent drizzle is
expected to fall.

The warmer air moving in aloft over Southwest Alaska is the
result of a ridge in the upper-levels. This ridge will help
stabilize the atmosphere and reduce mixing near the surface. A
lack of wind along with only partly cloudy skies across the Lower
Kuskokwim Valley and Bristol Bay tonight will help produce areas
of fog overnight. Fog may also develop in the Kuskokwim Delta, but
it will likely be the result of the aforementioned front and
freezing drizzle. A second front will slide across the Kuskokwim
Delta Monday night and into the southwest interior Tuesday.
Warmer air out ahead of this system is expected to keep the
precipitation type mostly rain, especially around Bristol Bay and
the Kuskokwim Delta. Locations well inland and along the higher
terrain can expect a light accumulation of snow.

Another potential hazard for the late Monday through Wednesday
time frame is an expected prolonged period of steady south to
southwesterly winds moving into the coast, which may have impacts
as far as high water levels are concerned.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2: Today
through Monday Night)...

The main weather story for the Bering is a deepening Kamchatka low
sweeping an occluded front across the western Bering and
Aleutians tonight bringing rain and widespread gales to the area.
This low will swing southeast tonight behind the front, leading
to a second area of widespread gales and even storm force winds
over the western and central Bering Monday. The northwesterly
track of the low will keep the strongest winds well north of the
Aleutian Chain but will bring gales to the Pribilofs late Monday.
By early Tuesday, the low will move into the northern Bering as
the core of gale-force winds brush past Nunivak Island. Behind
the low, colder air will slide southeast from eastern Russia and
move over the Bering for Tuesday and Wednesday. The next
Kamchatka low then begins to move east late Tuesday with another
round of rain and gales across the western Bering and Aleutians
overnight Tuesday into Wednesday as its associated front sweeps
across the region.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7/Monday through Friday)...

At the onset of the forecast period, there is a storm southeast
of Kodiak and an organized system east of Kamchatka. Models seem
to be improving and converging on both the low in the Gulf Of
Alaska and the new low in the Bering. There are some minor
differences with timing and intensity for both lows, but there is
a confidence boost for the longterm. Both of these storms will
bring another round of enhanced/gusty winds and a well organized
precipitation shield. Thursday the surface low for the gulf storm
will be just south of Middleton Island moving northeast. An
inverted trough will develop over Prince William Sound and into
the Copper River Basin. By Friday, the the surface low will have
rapidly weakened and pushed off to the east. In the wake of the
frontal passage ridging will build over the Gulf of Alaska. The
main weather producer with the the frontal boundary pushing across
the Aleutians/Bering and into southwest AK by the weekend. There
is a secondary impulse on the back side of the Bering low which
the models ping into.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Storm 411 412. Gales 177-181 185 413.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DK
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...KH
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...TM
LONG TERM...PS