Gale Warning 62, NWS Anchorage, AK

453 
FZAK52 PAFC 171416 CCA
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
516 AM AKST Wed Jan 17 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-180045-
516 AM AKST Wed Jan 17 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 983 mb low 135 nm west of Attu extends a front through the 
Western Aleutians. The low moves to 55 nm northwest of Atka at 
1010 mb by Fri morning. The associated front pushes into the Eastern
Aleutians by Fri morning. A 1004 mb North Pacific low tracks south 
of the Aleutians to 415 nm south of Sand Point at 992 mb by Fri 
morning.

$$

PKZ150-180045-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
516 AM AKST Wed Jan 17 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ155-180045-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
516 AM AKST Wed Jan 17 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 35 kt. Gusts to 50 kt out of bays and passes. 
Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt. From
the Shumagin Islands E, W wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ160-180045-
Bristol Bay-
516 AM AKST Wed Jan 17 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ165-180045-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
516 AM AKST Wed Jan 17 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray after midnight.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray in the morning.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ170-180045-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
516 AM AKST Wed Jan 17 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming E after midnight. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ171-180045-
Unalaska Bay-
516 AM AKST Wed Jan 17 2018

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt becoming W 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7
ft subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SE 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...E wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ172-180045-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
516 AM AKST Wed Jan 17 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ173-180045-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
516 AM AKST Wed Jan 17 2018

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt becoming S 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Snow and rain.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ174-180045-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
516 AM AKST Wed Jan 17 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt becoming S 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7
ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ175-180045-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
516 AM AKST Wed Jan 17 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ176-180045-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
516 AM AKST Wed Jan 17 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ177-180045-
Adak to Kiska-
516 AM AKST Wed Jan 17 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft Bering side... 21 ft Pacific 
side.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft bering side...19 ft Pacific side.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ178-180045-
Kiska to Attu-
516 AM AKST Wed Jan 17 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft bering side...24 ft Pacific side.
Rain and snow showers.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft. Rain showers and snow
showers.
.THU...W wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft bering side...22 ft Pacific side.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ179-180045-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
516 AM AKST Wed Jan 17 2018

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray in the morning.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ180-180045-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
516 AM AKST Wed Jan 17 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray N of Cape Newenham.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Heavy freezing spray N of Cape
Newenham.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray N of Cape
Newenham.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...N wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ181-180045-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
516 AM AKST Wed Jan 17 2018

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft. Freezing
spray.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft. Heavy freezing
spray.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.

$$

PKZ185-180045-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
516 AM AKST Wed Jan 17 2018

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray N of Saint
Matthew Island.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Heavy freezing spray N of Saint
Matthew Island in the morning.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

861 
FZAK52 PAFC 180024
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
324 PM AKST Wed Jan 17 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-181315-
324 PM AKST Wed Jan 17 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 983 mb low 130 nm northwest of Shemya moves 110 nm northeast of
Shemya at 1000 mb Thu afternoon. A North Pacific low passes well 
south of the Aleutians Thu afternoon through Fri afternoon 
resulting in a shift to offshore flow. A front approaches the 
western Aleutians Fri afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-181315-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
324 PM AKST Wed Jan 17 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Gusts to 50 kt out of bays and passes. 
Seas 10 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ155-181315-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
324 PM AKST Wed Jan 17 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt out of bays and passes in 
the evening. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt except W 30 kt from the Shumagin Islands E.
Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt except W 20 kt from the Shumagin Islands
E. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ160-181315-
Bristol Bay-
324 PM AKST Wed Jan 17 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Snow showers.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ165-181315-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
324 PM AKST Wed Jan 17 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ170-181315-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
324 PM AKST Wed Jan 17 2018

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming E after midnight. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ171-181315-
Unalaska Bay-
324 PM AKST Wed Jan 17 2018

.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt becoming SE after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...E wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ172-181315-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
324 PM AKST Wed Jan 17 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain and rain.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ173-181315-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
324 PM AKST Wed Jan 17 2018

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Snow and rain.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ174-181315-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
324 PM AKST Wed Jan 17 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ175-181315-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
324 PM AKST Wed Jan 17 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Snow and rain.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ176-181315-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
324 PM AKST Wed Jan 17 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas building to 15 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ177-181315-
Adak to Kiska-
324 PM AKST Wed Jan 17 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft bering side...21 ft Pacific 
side.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ178-181315-
Kiska to Attu-
324 PM AKST Wed Jan 17 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft bering side...23 ft Pacific 
side. Snow showers and rain showers.
.THU...W wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft bering side...22 ft Pacific side.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt after midnight. Seas
15 ft subsiding to 10 ft after midnight.
.FRI...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ179-181315-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
324 PM AKST Wed Jan 17 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ180-181315-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
324 PM AKST Wed Jan 17 2018

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ181-181315-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
324 PM AKST Wed Jan 17 2018

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft. Freezing
spray.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.

$$

PKZ185-181315-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
324 PM AKST Wed Jan 17 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...NE 20 kt W
of Saint Matthew Island. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
439 PM AKST Tue Jan 16 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A mature vertically stacked low is tracking across the southern
Gulf of Alaska toward Kodiak Island with a warm occlusion out
ahead of it pushing westward across Bristol Bay and the Kuskokwim
Valley. There is a band of light snow right along the front, but
much warmer air has moved in behind the front, from interior
Bristol Bay across most of Southcentral Alaska. Snow levels have
risen above 3000 ft for coastal mountains, highest across the
Kenai and western Chugach ranges. Rain or rain showers are focused
along the Gulf coast and Kodiak Island, while strong easterly
winds are producing downslope drying across much of the rest of
Southcentral. The one notable exception is the Copper River Basin,
where an upper level short-wave is tracking overhead producing
fairly widespread precipitation across the basin. There are very
few observations in this zone, but based on web cams it appears
precipitation is falling mainly in the form of snow.

Meanwhile, out west much of the Bering Sea and Aleutians are under
a showery regime with weak low level cold advection and gusty
winds through channeled areas of the Eastern Aleutians and
southern Alaska Peninsula. Winds are trending stronger along the
Alaska Peninsula as the core of cold advection moves in from the
west and pressure gradients tighten ahead of the low in the Gulf.
Further west, a gale force low is approaching the far Western
Aleutians.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Model guidance is in good agreement with large scale features and
forecast confidence is generally above average. The main forecast
challenges include local winds and temperatures across Southcentral
tonight through Wednesday along with precipitation-type in Bristol
Bay and the Copper River Basin.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions will persist thanks to persistently strong
easterly flow across the Kenai and Chugach Mountains. Low level
wind shear will become increasingly likely as the low over the
Gulf moves to the vicinity of Kodiak Island on Wednesday and
pressure gradients begin to build along western Turnagain Arm.
Also, as the low weakens near Kodiak Island on Wednesday pressure
gradients over Cook Inlet will weaken. The Turnagain Arm jet,
which is currently bending strongly southward as it comes out of
the arm, will then bend back northward. Pressure gradients do not
support the wind bending all the way into the airport, so think
wind will remain to the south near Fire Island.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

The stacked low pressure system along the southwestern gulf tracks
northwest across Kodiak Island tonight bringing gusty winds and
rain across the gulf and coastal areas. Gusty winds also increase
for Cook Inlet and around Turnagain Arm as the pressure gradient
along the coast tightens in response to the approaching low. Low
level easterly flow keeps inland areas on the drier side, however
chances for precipitation remain through Wednesday afternoon then
diminish as the stacked low shears apart between building ridges
along the eastern Gulf and Bering. Patchy fog will likely develop
along weak boundaries across the Susitna and Copper River Valleys
tonight as temperatures drop to near dewpoint values and should
improve shortly after daybreak on Wednesday. Winds across the gulf
and along channeled terrain taper down Wednesday afternoon as the
low weakens with the flow pattern changing to offshore heading
into Thursday. A trend towards colder and drier conditions begins
on Thursday as high pressure builds across the Bering forcing an
Arctic air mass slowly toward the Gulf.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2...Wed and Thu)...
The low that pushed the warm front (and snow) through the area
this morning will drift towards Kodiak Island and fall apart.
This will allow some warm air and light precipitation to move over
much of the Aleutian Range and towards Bristol Bay this evening.
With most of the surface temperatures in the area still below
freezing, this will set the stage for the possibility of some very
light freezing rain through the evening into the overnight hours.
A Special Weather Statement has been issued to address this
concern. Areas to the west of the warm air (Togiak up through
Aniak and Bethel) will continue to see light snow. The snow should
linger through Wed over the YK-Delta resulting in a couple inches
of accumulation.

The pattern will not change much on Thu. Some colder air will get
pulled down through the Eastern Bering. This should allow for
temperatures to cool off enough to change most of the
precipitation back over to snow. With lingering moisture being
pulled up by the aforementioned low, the threat of snow will
remain in the forecast. However, none of the precipitation looks
overly heavy, so any snow accumulations would be quite light.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2...Wed and
Thu)...
Most of the Bering will see some cold air advection and snow
showers, while the far western portion of the domain will see a
new low from the North Pacific push through. First, the cold air
advection will start to increase tonight into Wed. This should
lead to impressive snow showers across the Eastern Bering and
especially over the northern side of the Alaska Peninsula. This
cold air will also seek to push through the gaps on the peninsula.
This will result in gusty winds at places like King Cove and out
into the marine zones south of the peninsula. These winds and
showers will slowly diminish on Thu.

Further west, the low will bring a gale-force front through the
Western Aleutians and into the Western Bering. In addition to
winds, it will also bring some precipitation that will start as
snow, then mix with rain before trying to turn over to all rain.
This low will stall out and start to fall apart Wed into Thu. As
it does so, it will wrap in some colder air from Siberia. This
will bring another swath of gale-force NW to SW winds back across
the Western Aleutians. This will also produce wide-spread snow
showers that extend all the way to the Central Aleutians.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
As advertised in the past couple of long term forecast
discussions, a major pattern shift is expected over most of
mainland Alaska this weekend and into next week. The upper level
pattern, which has been leading to warm and wet conditions over
southcentral, will migrate east this weekend with a high amplitude
upper level ridge setting up over the central Bering and an upper
level trough developing over central/eastern Alaska. This will
lead to strong northerly flow through the Bering Straight and over
SW Alaska which will advect in bitterly cold air down from the
arctic. The source of this cold air is currently bottled up over
northeastern Russia where temperatures this week were recorded as
low as -80 F.

Models all show this cold airmass being pulled south into western
Alaska by the end of the weekend, though significantly modified
by the time it reaches the region. Long range ensemble guidance
shows marginal odds of minimum temperatures across western and
interior portions of Alaska being in the bottom 15th percentile of
climatology, or in layman's terms, temperatures are likely to be
well below normal next week, though not quite to record levels.
Temperatures could drop into the -30's to -40's along interior
sections of SW Alaska, with sub zero temperatures reaching the
Bristol Bay Coast. This will be the coldest air of the season so
far and may be a shock to residents who have been getting use to
the near record warmth this winter. Luckily for residents of
southcentral, the coldest air will be blocked by the Alaska Range,
though temperatures will fall back to normal or slightly below
normal values by early next week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale 119 120 125 130 138 139 140 150 155 178.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SEB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...KH
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MSO
LONG TERM...KVP