Gale Warning 532, NWS Anchorage, AK

027 
FZAK62 PAFC 131109
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
309 AM AKDT Sat Oct 13 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-140100-
309 AM AKDT Sat Oct 13 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 971 mb low Sat morning at 51N 173E moves to 50N 171W at 966 mb
by Sun morning and then to 53N 164W at 969 mb by Mon morning. 

$$

PKZ411-140100-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
309 AM AKDT Sat Oct 13 2018

.TODAY...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft.
.WED...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ412-140100-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
309 AM AKDT Sat Oct 13 2018

.TODAY...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.

$$

PKZ413-140100-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
309 AM AKDT Sat Oct 13 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ414-140100-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
309 AM AKDT Sat Oct 13 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 to 30 kt becoming S in the afternoon. 
Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Widespread rain
showers.
.SUN...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.MON...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

897 
FZAK62 PAFC 132358
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
358 PM AKDT Sat Oct 13 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-141245-
358 PM AKDT Sat Oct 13 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...A 984 mb low at 60N 171W will
dissipate Sun morning. A 964 mb low at 50N 178W will move to 51N 
166W at 968 mb Sun afternoon. The low will then move near 56N 164W at
974 mb Mon afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-141245-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
358 PM AKDT Sat Oct 13 2018

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.THU...E wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft.

$$

PKZ412-141245-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
358 PM AKDT Sat Oct 13 2018

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 to 20 kt in the evening becoming NE. 
Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft. Widespread rain
showers.
.MON...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.THU...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.

$$

PKZ413-141245-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
358 PM AKDT Sat Oct 13 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain showers.
.MON...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.THU...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ414-141245-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
358 PM AKDT Sat Oct 13 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind increasing to 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Widespread rain
showers.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain showers.
.MON...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

995 
FZAK62 PAFC 141114
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
314 AM AKDT Sun Oct 14 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-150100-
314 AM AKDT Sun Oct 14 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 968 mb low at 50N 170W moves to 58N 164W at 978 mb by Tue
morning. Its front wraps across the Eastern Bering and Alaska
Peninsula through Tue morning. A 990 mb low near 62N 172W
dissipates into a trough that sweeps across the Western Bering
through Tue morning.

$$

PKZ411-150100-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
314 AM AKDT Sun Oct 14 2018

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft. Rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.THU...E wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft.

$$

PKZ412-150100-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
314 AM AKDT Sun Oct 14 2018

.TODAY...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Widespread rain
showers.
.MON...NE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.THU...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.

$$

PKZ413-150100-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
314 AM AKDT Sun Oct 14 2018

.TODAY...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain showers.
.MON...NW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.THU...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ414-150100-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
314 AM AKDT Sun Oct 14 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Widespread rain
showers.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Rain showers.
Slight chance of thunderstorms.
.MON...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. Rain showers.
Slight chance of thunderstorms.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
446 AM AKDT Fri Oct 12 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The synoptic pattern has the main upper level low over the eastern
Bering and ridging over the Gulf that extends over the southern
mainland. The eastern Bering low is vertically stacked with its
associated front pushing through southwest Alaska bringing rain to
the area as it tracks northeast. West of the Bering low is weak
ridging that has built in over the western Aleutians.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The models are on the same page concerning the overall synoptic
pattern but are struggling with some of the details. One of which
is a low approaching the Aleutians Friday. As it tracks east,
staying south of the islands into Sunday, models are having
difficulty locking in on its exact position. The other area of
concern is with a weak low moving through the Gulf toward Prince
William Sound Friday night. Some are pushing it into Prince
William Sound while others take it further to the west.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions will persist until a band of rain that will
setup west of town moves over west Anchorage this afternoon
dropping the ceiling. Conditions look to improve by the evening,
but there is some uncertainty with exact timing. Winds look to
stay out of the southeast with gusts around 20 kt for much of the
TAF period. This afternoon the Turnagain Arm wind will increase
overhead bringing windshear to the airport.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The north-to-south oriented front over the area will remain
roughly in place through this evening. A tight pressure gradient
is associated with this front, and fairly strong southeast winds
are expected through Turnagain Arm and other gaps in the terrain.
A surface low will move rapidly into the Gulf from the south
tonight, reaching the Gulf Coast Saturday morning. A barrier jet
will form along the Gulf Coast into Prince William Sound, with
Gale force winds expected. Storm force winds will also briefly be
seen east of Montague Island in the northern Gulf. This is a
fairly moist system and rain is expected over virtually all of
Southcentral. The low will then push inland Saturday afternoon,
with winds and rainfall tapering off through Saturday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
(Today through Sunday)

A weak front, currently near a Bethel to Kodiak Island line, will
continue to move northeast through the day with widespread
rainfall accompanying it. In its way, showers will continue to
develop as a few shortwaves rotate across the area in the cyclonic
flow aloft. Given the low freezing levels of ~3800 feet, any
heavier shower will probably mix down some small hail, with the
morning Doppler radar imagery also strongly suggesting this with
the heavier cores, as a lower specific differential phase and some
bright-banding has been observed. However, areal coverage seemed
low enough to preclude including this in the zones.

Heading into the late morning and afternoon, instability will
build some with the diurnal heating cycle, and given model progs
of steep mid-level lapse rates (70-500 mb lapse rates near 8 deg.
C/km) amidst 0 to -2 surface lifted indices and a few hundred
joules of CAPE, an isolated thunderstorm or two is certainly
possible and this was added to the forecast. Heading into Saturday
morning, a low moving through the Gulf will allow a steadier
rainfall to retrograde into the interior near the Alaska Range, as
deformation dynamics take hold. Otherwise, look for a showery
pattern to continue through the weekend as the stagnant cyclonic
flow pattern remains virtually unchanged.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...
(Today through Sunday)

A broad cyclonic flow around a Saint Matthew Island low will
maintain an overall showery regime across the region through the
weekend. Disturbances rotating through the area will bring a burst
of ascent at times, helping to increase rainfall coverage while
also helping to mix down some stronger winds aloft. Overall small
craft conditions look to be about the worst of it for the Bering
Sea through the weekend.

Further south though, an area of low pressure will bypass the
Aleutian chain through the weekend, as it dives south of Shemya
tonight before turning eastward. However, the storm will be close
enough to bring widespread rainfall to the Shemya area by late
this afternoon, with sustain low-end gales developing by tonight.
This steady rainfall with sustained gales will then progress
eastward along the chain, affecting both the Bering and Pacific
coastal waters, as it treks eastward while reaching the AKPEN by
Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday Night through
Thursday)...

A sprawling low centered south of Dutch Harbor Sunday evening will
be the driver for the weather all across Southern Alaska through
the long-range forecast period. The center of the low will track
northward and move to about halfway in between the Pribilofs and
Cape Newenham by Tuesday morning. Beyond that the model
differences increase markedly. The GFS and Canadian turn the low
center back to the southeast and move it into the southwestern
Gulf by Thursday afternoon. Meanwhile the EC parks the low in the
same place for about 60 consecutive hours through Thursday
evening, gradually weakening as it sits and spins. Along this
track, most of Southern mainland Alaska will be east of the low
center, which means it will be subject to nearly continuous flow
off the Gulf and the Bering. This will support a cloudy and wet
weather pattern with scattered showers likely each day. An
associated front located east of the low is expected to continue
to progress into Southern mainland Alaska on Monday. That will
make it the wettest day of the week and also the windiest day
through the gaps.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gales...125 130 131 132 174 176 177 178.
		 Storms...119.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DK
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PD
LONG TERM...RA/JW