Gale Warning 515, NWS Anchorage, AK

675 
FZAK51 PAFC 271301 AAA
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
356 AM AKDT Thu Sep 27 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-280100-
356 AM AKDT Thu Sep 27 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A front over the northern to western Gulf will weaken through 
Thu night. High pressure will build across the Gulf Fri through 
Fri night.

$$

PKZ119-280100-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
356 AM AKDT Thu Sep 27 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind increasing to 30 kt. Seas 9 ft except 
5 ft near the coast. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Near the coast, E wind 25 kt 
diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.FRI...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ120-280100-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
356 AM AKDT Thu Sep 27 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind increasing to 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ121-280100-
Resurrection Bay-
356 AM AKDT Thu Sep 27 2018

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-280100-
Prince William Sound-
356 AM AKDT Thu Sep 27 2018

.TODAY...NE wind increasing to 20 kt. Seas building to 4 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. 
Seas 2 ft.
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-280100-
Port Valdez-
356 AM AKDT Thu Sep 27 2018

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt 
in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable 
less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-280100-
Valdez Narrows-
356 AM AKDT Thu Sep 27 2018

.TODAY...N wind increasing to 20 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt becoming N 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-280100-
Valdez Arm-
356 AM AKDT Thu Sep 27 2018

.TODAY...NE wind increasing to 20 kt. Seas building to 4 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less 
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-280100-
Passage Canal-
356 AM AKDT Thu Sep 27 2018

.TODAY...E wind increasing to 15 kt in the late morning, 
then diminishing to less than 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT AND FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.

$$

PKZ130-280100-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
356 AM AKDT Thu Sep 27 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind increasing to 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ131-280100-
Barren Islands East-
356 AM AKDT Thu Sep 27 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. 
Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ132-280100-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
356 AM AKDT Thu Sep 27 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ136-280100-
Chiniak Bay-
356 AM AKDT Thu Sep 27 2018

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-280100-
Marmot Bay-
356 AM AKDT Thu Sep 27 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt early, becoming SE wind 15 kt. 
Seas 8 ft subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.FRI THROUGH MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ138-280100-
Shelikof Strait-
356 AM AKDT Thu Sep 27 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 40 kt diminishing 25 kt after midnight. 
Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-280100-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
356 AM AKDT Thu Sep 27 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-280100-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
356 AM AKDT Thu Sep 27 2018

.TODAY...NE wind increasing to 20 kt. Seas building to 5 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 5 ft subsiding.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt becoming NE 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ141-280100-
Kachemak Bay-
356 AM AKDT Thu Sep 27 2018

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

423 
FZAK51 PAFC 272304
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
304 PM AKDT Thu Sep 27 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-281200-
304 PM AKDT Thu Sep 27 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A front stretching across the North Gulf Coast dissipates Fri 
afternoon. High pressure spreads from the Eastern Gulf across the 
Gulf through Sat afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-281200-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
304 PM AKDT Thu Sep 27 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ120-281200-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
304 PM AKDT Thu Sep 27 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ121-281200-
Resurrection Bay-
304 PM AKDT Thu Sep 27 2018

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-281200-
Prince William Sound-
304 PM AKDT Thu Sep 27 2018

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-281200-
Port Valdez-
304 PM AKDT Thu Sep 27 2018

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-281200-
Valdez Narrows-
304 PM AKDT Thu Sep 27 2018

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt becoming N 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-281200-
Valdez Arm-
304 PM AKDT Thu Sep 27 2018

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt becoming N 15 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-281200-
Passage Canal-
304 PM AKDT Thu Sep 27 2018

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-281200-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
304 PM AKDT Thu Sep 27 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ131-281200-
Barren Islands East-
304 PM AKDT Thu Sep 27 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
11 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ132-281200-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
304 PM AKDT Thu Sep 27 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ136-281200-
Chiniak Bay-
304 PM AKDT Thu Sep 27 2018

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
4 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-281200-
Marmot Bay-
304 PM AKDT Thu Sep 27 2018

.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-281200-
Shelikof Strait-
304 PM AKDT Thu Sep 27 2018

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ139-281200-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
304 PM AKDT Thu Sep 27 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-281200-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
304 PM AKDT Thu Sep 27 2018

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-281200-
Kachemak Bay-
304 PM AKDT Thu Sep 27 2018

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
458 PM AKDT Wed Sep 26 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A change in the weather can be seen approaching from the south as a
wave rides along the western edge of a ridge over the Northeast
Pacific. So far this wave is only bringing rain to the offshore
areas of the Gulf, however as it continues spreading to the north it
will be the primary driver for rainfall over the South Mainland
Thursday. Otherwise conditions remain very quiet to the east of the
dateline as a broad area of high pressure is present over much of
the area. This ridge is beginning to slide slowly off to the east
and weaken however, allowing for the gale force front currently over
the Western Bering to spread eastward.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Model agreement remains good on the synoptic scale features
through Friday, but there are still some smaller scale differences
impacting the overall forecast confidence. The most significant of
which is the track of the shortwave trough that will move over the
southwest mainland Thursday. The NAM especially has trended much
stronger with this wave, bringing significantly more rainfall to
interior Southcentral. On the other hand the GFS has trended
towards a weaker more compact low, resulting in a much drier
solution, especially from Anchorage northward. The GEM regional on
the other hand is a nice compromise of these two solutions, which
was also closest to the current forecast and was preferred for
today's forecast updates.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions with light winds are expected to continue
into Thursday morning, with no expected redevelopment of the fog
and stratus experienced at the airport this morning. This is due
to increased offshore flow ahead of a system moving into the Gulf
of Alaska, which will dry out the low levels but also bring
rainfall and otherwise VFR conditions to the terminal for
Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Tonight
through Saturday)...
Cloud cover will rapidly increase from south to north this
evening across the southern mainland as a potent warm front pushes
northward across the Northern Pacific and Gulf of Alaska. A
strong southerly upper level jet is tapping into a long fetch of
tropical moisture and sending it northward towards the southern
mainland. The moisture will ride over the top of a large blocking
high to the east, spreading rain across Kodiak this evening, the
Kenai Peninsula overnight, and into the Anchorage and Mat-Su by
tomorrow morning. The front will produce gale force winds over the
Southern Gulf and Shelikof Strait tonight while heavy rain will
fall across coastal regions, with up to 1-2 inches expected along
the Northern Gulf Coast with lesser amounts inland and in
sheltered locations. Precipitation is also expected in the Copper
River Basin tomorrow, though models have disagreed as to how far
north the precipitation reaches. Have trended towards keeping
precipitation out of the Northern Copper River Basin. There has
been some discussion as to whether snow could be seen in the
Copper River Basin tomorrow, but models have trended warmer, with
850 mb temps dropping barely below 0C. Thus, accumulations along
the Glenn Highway between Chickaloon and Glen Allen are not
likely, though some snow could mix in with rain near Eureka and
Sheep Mountain Lodge in the morning.

Rain will rapidly diminish from west to east over the southern
mainland Thursday evening and night as the driving upper level
trough becomes positively tilted and the upper ridge builds in
over the area. Some residual clouds will linger over the area on
Friday before mostly clearing out by Saturday, setting the stage
for another warm and sunny weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Wet weather will return to southwest Alaska, as a series of lows
moving through the central Bering send multiple fronts across the
region. A warm front associated with the first disturbance will
reach the AKPEN later this evening, then to the Kuskokwim Delta
by lunchtime tomorrow. Widespread rainfall will develop for all of
the region, some of which may be moderate to locally heavy at
times.

For your Friday and the start of the weekend, the additional lows
will take more of a northwesterly track through the central
Bering, with each storm bringing a warm front across the area.
However, these additional fronts will be much weaker with very
little surface convergence. Given the lack of a low-level focus,
and with the better dynamics remaining offshore, the only foci
for rainfall to develop will be via orographic lifting. With a
southeast wind flow, the Peninsula will see prolonged periods of
potential rainfall, where as the remainder of the southwest will see
just broken clouds with very warm afternoon temperatures given the
downsloping component at the surface and bursts of warm advection
aloft.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...
(Tonight through Saturday)
The calm before the storm(s) best sums up the weather through the
end of the week. A slow-moving frontal boundary will continue to
be a source of widespread rainfall for the western half of the
Bering Sea and Aleutians, as a low meanders across western portions
of the Bering Sea. Meanwhile, further off to the east, multiple
surface lows will lift north to northwest from the central Aleutians
towards Saint Matthew Island. Each system will drag a warm front
northward, bringing periods of steady rainfall, some of which will
be moderate to locally heavy at times.

As for winds and waves, small craft to low-end gales will
continue along and ahead of the front and also near the area of low
pressure through the period. For the eastern half of the Bering Sea
and Aleutian chain, the winds will remain light through tomorrow.
They'll then increase to sustained gales for Friday and Saturday,
as the incoming lows/warm fronts don't begin to arrive until
Friday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...
Beginning the extended period forecast Saturday night, there will
be a very high amplitude (3.5 sigma+) upper level ridge over the
state of Alaska with a deep upper trough over the Bering Sea.
Mainland high pressure will remain dominant which means dry and
beautiful with warmer than average days through the remainder of
the weekend. Moreover, with the eastern part of the ridge over the
Yukon, this will promote a northerly flow aloft which may enhance
some local offshore winds, thus ensuring a dry and pleasant
weekend.

Heading into Monday, the global numerical models have come into
much better agreement with two important features, the recurving
former Super Typhoon Trami and the breakdown of the upper
blocking high over Alaska. It does seem more likely now that a
low moving into Southwest Alaska will begin to erode the block
sometime late Monday into Tuesday with the front eventually moving
into the Gulf Coast by midweek. This should bring more clouds and
precipitation chances back to parts of Southern Alaska,
especially Southwest, so this forecast will begin trending those
chances upwards. Regarding Trami, there remains quite a bit of
model spread, but increasing likelihood that remnants of Trami
will at least bring some potential gale force winds into the
western Bering Sea Monday night into Tuesday, so this forecast
will also trend that upward to depict this change.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning 120 131 132 138 150 155 175>178 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DEK
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...KVP
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PD
LONG TERM...JA