Gale Warning 473, NWS Anchorage, AK

367 
FZAK51 PAFC 261317 AAA
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast...UPDATED
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
517 AM AKDT Sun Aug 26 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-270215-
517 AM AKDT Sun Aug 26 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A weak front in the central Gulf reaches the northeastern Gulf
tonight. A 1012 mb low 180 nm south of Cold Bay tonight moves 
130 nm east of Middleton Island at 1004 mb Mon night.

$$

PKZ119-270215-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
517 AM AKDT Sun Aug 26 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4
ft building to 9 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt...except SE along the coast in the evening.
Seas 13 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
12 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ120-270215-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
517 AM AKDT Sun Aug 26 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt becoming SW 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft
building to 10 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ121-270215-
Resurrection Bay-
517 AM AKDT Sun Aug 26 2018

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt becoming S 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3
ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-270215-
Prince William Sound-
517 AM AKDT Sun Aug 26 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft building to 6 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt becoming W 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3
ft. Rain.
.MON...W wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-270215-
Port Valdez-
517 AM AKDT Sun Aug 26 2018

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-270215-
Valdez Narrows-
517 AM AKDT Sun Aug 26 2018

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Rain.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-270215-
Valdez Arm-
517 AM AKDT Sun Aug 26 2018

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-270215-
Passage Canal-
517 AM AKDT Sun Aug 26 2018

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-270215-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
517 AM AKDT Sun Aug 26 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt becoming SW 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11 
ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas
8 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ131-270215-
Barren Islands East-
517 AM AKDT Sun Aug 26 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt becoming SW 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 14 
ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
14 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ132-270215-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
517 AM AKDT Sun Aug 26 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt becoming W 25 kt in the afternoon. N of
Dangerous Cape, SW wind 20 kt in the morning becoming variable
10 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ136-270215-
Chiniak Bay-
517 AM AKDT Sun Aug 26 2018

.TODAY...S wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 
ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft.
.MON...SW wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-270215-
Marmot Bay-
517 AM AKDT Sun Aug 26 2018

.TODAY...S wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 
ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ138-270215-
Shelikof Strait-
517 AM AKDT Sun Aug 26 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 
ft building to 12 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the evening. Seas 
12 ft subsiding to 8 ft after midnight.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt becoming W 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft
subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ139-270215-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
517 AM AKDT Sun Aug 26 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt becoming S 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft 
building to 9 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft subsiding to 3 ft in the
afternoon.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ140-270215-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
517 AM AKDT Sun Aug 26 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt becoming S 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft
subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ141-270215-
Kachemak Bay-
517 AM AKDT Sun Aug 26 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 10 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 
ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

101 
FZAK51 PAFC 262356
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
356 PM AKDT Sun Aug 26 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-271245-
356 PM AKDT Sun Aug 26 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A weak front in the central Gulf reaches the northeastern Gulf
tonight. A 1014 mb low 140 nm south of Sand Point will move to 
80 nm east of Kodiak City at 1011 mb by Mon afternoon and then 
will move inland near Sitka at 1007 mb by Tue afternoon. 

$$

PKZ119-271245-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
356 PM AKDT Sun Aug 26 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming N 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ120-271245-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
356 PM AKDT Sun Aug 26 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ121-271245-
Resurrection Bay-
356 PM AKDT Sun Aug 26 2018

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-271245-
Prince William Sound-
356 PM AKDT Sun Aug 26 2018

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt becoming NW 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3
ft. Rain.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 10 kt becoming NW after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-271245-
Port Valdez-
356 PM AKDT Sun Aug 26 2018

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-271245-
Valdez Narrows-
356 PM AKDT Sun Aug 26 2018

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Rain.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt becoming NE 15 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-271245-
Valdez Arm-
356 PM AKDT Sun Aug 26 2018

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.MON...NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-271245-
Passage Canal-
356 PM AKDT Sun Aug 26 2018

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-271245-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
356 PM AKDT Sun Aug 26 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas
7 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ131-271245-
Barren Islands East-
356 PM AKDT Sun Aug 26 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt. Seas
9 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ132-271245-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
356 PM AKDT Sun Aug 26 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ136-271245-
Chiniak Bay-
356 PM AKDT Sun Aug 26 2018

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft.
.MON...SW wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-271245-
Marmot Bay-
356 PM AKDT Sun Aug 26 2018

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SW wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ138-271245-
Shelikof Strait-
356 PM AKDT Sun Aug 26 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ139-271245-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
356 PM AKDT Sun Aug 26 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ140-271245-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
356 PM AKDT Sun Aug 26 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Gust to 45 kt through Turnagain Arm during
the evening. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6
ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ141-271245-
Kachemak Bay-
356 PM AKDT Sun Aug 26 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
4 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NW 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
412 PM AKDT Sat Aug 25 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A vertically stacked low continues to dominate the west. The low
is advancing northeastward advecting moist and warm air along the
coast line and throughout the Bering Sea. The low is sitting in
the left exit region of the jet streak at the end of a long-wave
trough causing the low to continue deepening. Jet stream winds
near the base of the trough are approaching 140 kts at 300 mb. On
the leading edge of the low, a warm front is draped over the
AKPen and southern Gulf of Alaska. Ahead of the front, a slight
ridge is building which is bringing a break in the clouds and
rain, resulting in a drier morning start through Southcentral
Alaska. However, the front can easily be seen moving northeastward
on radar as rain begins to move over the southern Kenai Peninsula
and the AKPen. As the warm front progresses northward, another
batch of rain is imminent throughout Southcentral Alaska.
Satellite imagery shows broad cloud cover over the most of the
Bering Sea and the Gulf, but there are a few breaks in the cloud
cover over Southcentral also aiding in the drier conditions.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models are in good agreement in regards to the synoptic features
through the early periods but begin to diverge around 36 hours out.
Guidance is in agreement in the depiction of the low in the
Bering Sea moving into the northern waters, in addition to the
front entering the Gulf of Alaska. There is general consensus that
there is a low advecting from the North Pacific however, the EC
continues to be the faster solution with the NAM and GFS lagging
behind. This pattern continues through Mon.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist tonight with a
few showers in the area. Southeast winds and rain are expected to
pickup in advance of a frontal passage Sunday which may push the
aerodrome into MVFR for a time.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

The main impacts, in the short range forecast through Tuesday
afternoon, is surrounded around the storm system currently moving
to the Southwest coast. Moderate to heavy rainfall and gusty
winds will impact Southcentral late Saturday night through early
Monday morning. Conditions from this storm improve inland on
Monday, however the Gulf and surrounding coasts will see the next
fast moving front enter the western gulf by early Monday morning.

Rain spreads across Southcentral from the Kenai this evening as
the frontal boundary extending from the Bering low is pushed
north. This low picks up momentum as it tracks toward the
Southwest coast overnight. Gusty winds are expected to increase as
the boundary moves through due to a pressure gradient squeeze
between a surface ridge building along the Northeast Gulf and the
low nearing the Kuskokwim Delta early Sunday. The front diminishes
late Sunday night as the associated surface low fills and it
tracks inland near the Seward Peninsula.

The next front moving into the western Gulf Monday morning is
projected to stay on an easterly track to the eastern Gulf by
early Tuesday. Rain from this system may spread into the Northeast
gulf, however inland locations should stay dry unless the low
center tracks further north.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
(Tonight through Tuesday)

The tale of two storms best sums up the weather for the next few
days. Our first storm is currently northwest of the Pribilof
Islands, will move towards eastern Norton Sound by Monday night.
Ahead of this feature, a warm front was beginning to move ashore
across the coastal locations, with widespread rainfall preceding
the front. As both systems move northeast, rainfall will become
more showery in nature through the night. As both features pull
north of the area, moisture in the cyclonic flow will maintain a
chance of showers through Monday, especially during the afternoon
hours when instability increases slightly due to daytime heating.
high pressure builds across the region for Monday night and
Tuesday, with a gradual drying trend progressing from southwest to
northeast during this time.

Further south and east for the Alaska Range through the AKPEN, a
secondary system trekking parallel to and south of the peninsula
will allow some rain to continue as a deformation band associated
with the low skirts this region through Tuesday morning, with dry
advection taking hold by the afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...
(Tonight through Tuesday)

An active period is in store for parts of the region, as an area
of low pressure treks from the central Bering towards the western
coast of Alaska, with its trailing cold front, currently near
Nikolski, slowing its eastward progression over the next 24 to 36
hours. This is due to another area of low pressure forming a few
hundred miles south of the Aleutians, which will ride up the front
like a train on the tracks. this will bring a second round of
increased ascent as a deformation band takes shape, with the low
traveling south of and roughly parallel to the AKPEN.

Further north and west, cyclonic flow around the Bering system
will keep showers in the picture through Monday, before an area of
high pressure develops, helping to clear the skies some while
significantly reducing any precipitation potential.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

By Tuesday, ridging over Southwest Alaska will have pushed much of
the precipitation out of Southern Alaska for a brief drier midweek
break. The upper level ridge will amplify slightly Tuesday night
as a strong north Pacific low crosses the western Aleutians and
tracks into the Bering. The ridge axis will shift east over
Southcentral Alaska on Wednesday as the frontal system
accompanying the Bering low approaches the Kuskokwim Delta coast.
The front will push inland over Southwest Wednesday evening and
then be followed by the associated upper level trough on Thursday.
The front will continue east into Southcentral Alaska on Thursday
with the upper trough following Thursday night and Friday.
Additional frontal systems with moist tropical origins will likely
follow over the weekend, although model uncertainty remains high
regarding their timing and track.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale 131 132

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RA
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...KH
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PD
LONG TERM...JR