Gale Warning 451, NWS Anchorage, AK

345 
FZAK52 PAFC 031203
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
403 AM AKDT Fri Aug 3 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-040115-
403 AM AKDT Fri Aug 3 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A front associated with a 994 mb Kamchatka low reaches the eastern
Bering tonight. A ridge builds over the southern Bering through
Sat night.

$$

PKZ150-040115-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
403 AM AKDT Fri Aug 3 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 35 kt. Gusts to 45 kt out of bays and passes. Seas 
13 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ155-040115-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
403 AM AKDT Fri Aug 3 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Gusts to 40 kt out of bays and passes in the
morning. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ160-040115-
Bristol Bay-
403 AM AKDT Fri Aug 3 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ165-040115-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
403 AM AKDT Fri Aug 3 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ170-040115-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
403 AM AKDT Fri Aug 3 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ171-040115-
Unalaska Bay-
403 AM AKDT Fri Aug 3 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon.
Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-040115-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
403 AM AKDT Fri Aug 3 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ173-040115-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
403 AM AKDT Fri Aug 3 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ174-040115-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
403 AM AKDT Fri Aug 3 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ175-040115-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
403 AM AKDT Fri Aug 3 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ176-040115-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
403 AM AKDT Fri Aug 3 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ177-040115-
Adak to Kiska-
403 AM AKDT Fri Aug 3 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ178-040115-
Kiska to Attu-
403 AM AKDT Fri Aug 3 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ179-040115-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
403 AM AKDT Fri Aug 3 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft. 
Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ180-040115-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
403 AM AKDT Fri Aug 3 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt decreasing to 15 kt by noon. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ181-040115-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
403 AM AKDT Fri Aug 3 2018

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ185-040115-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
403 AM AKDT Fri Aug 3 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 10 kt E of Saint Matthew Island... SE 20 kt W of 
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
415 PM AKDT Thu Aug 2 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The large upper level low which has been over the eastern Bering
Sea for the last several days is slowly dropping south toward
coastal Southwest Alaska. A surface front was moving slowly east
across Cook Inlet to the MAT-SU Valleys corridor today. It
brought widespread rain to the region and brisk easterly winds
from Whittier to along Turnagain Arm. A post frontal trough was
evident along coastal Southwest Alaska and brought widespread rain
to the Southwest Mainland. An upper vorticity max and favorable
jet dynamics enhanced the rainfall along the portion of the trough
over Bristol Bay. A northeast to southwest oriented frontal
boundary over the far western Bering Sea brought gusty southwest
winds and areas of rain and fog to the western Bering and western
Aleutians.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models overall are in good agreement and reasonable through the
short term.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Generally light winds will continue through tonight. VFR
conditions will generally prevail through this evening, though
there is chance that MVFR ceiling will develop during the
overnight hours tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Rain continues to develop across the region tonight as low
pressure over the Southwest slides toward the central Gulf of
Alaska. Downsloping limits rain amounts for locations on the lee
side of the mountains as low level flow becomes southeasterly.
However, the saturated air mass in place will support up to a
quarter inch of new rainfall through Friday for windward sides of
the mountains with locally higher amounts. Higher accumulations
are expected along the Gulf and Prince William Sound coastal
locations. Gusty winds increase tonight as low pressure deepens on
its track to the Gulf. Gales were added for marines through
Friday and gusts were added for typical gap locations due to the
tightening pressure gradient. Another change made through the
tonight period: patchy fog was added across inland locations as
winds remain light overnight and a weak inversion set up just off
the surface.

Rain diminishes inland by Friday afternoon as the surface low
slides into the Gulf, and then later in the evening for the Gulf
and coastal areas. The one exception to this is for the eastern
region of the Copper River Basin, where re-developing showers are
expected Friday evening as a weak low develops along the southern
Alcan border.

Overall, temperatures are expected to climb near 70 degrees each
day through the upcoming weekend. Conditions stay drier after the
current low moves to the North Pacific and the pattern aloft
becomes more zonal. Isolated to scattered showers will mainly
develop along the mountains during peak heating on Saturday and
Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A double-barrel low extending from the Y-K Delta to Kodiak Island
will continue to strengthen as it dives south toward the western
Gulf tonight. Gale-force winds and rough seas are likely through
the overnight hours on the back side of this system south of the
Alaska Peninsula as the pressure gradient between it and a
building ridge upstream tightens. Over the southwest Mainland,
precipitation will diminish overnight from north to south as a
drier, northerly wind develops. High pressure cresting over the
region Friday afternoon will provide a brief return to warmer
conditions, with sunshine and temperatures topping out in the mid
60s to near 70 degrees. Clouds and rain look to return for the
weekend, however, as a weakening warm front flattens out the
ridge and pushes into southwest Alaska late Friday into early
Saturday. A second system then moves northeast across the Bering
toward Nunivak Island Saturday evening sweeping a second warm
front through the region Saturday evening and a trailing cold
front on Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

A surface low tracking north across the far western Bering
will continue to produce gale-force winds and rain over the
western Aleutians through late Friday morning. Downstream, a
stout North Pacific ridge will build northward and amplify, with
its axis stretching into the southern Bering for Friday. This
feature will persist over the area into the weekend, yielding
stratus and fog across the central Aleutian chain and southern
Bering Sea through late Saturday. By Saturday evening, this ridge
begins to shift east as a developing low pushes a front across the
western Aleutians. Gusty, near gale-force winds along the eastern
Aleutians and AKPen will persist through Friday morning due to a
strong pressure gradient between the building ridge and a
strengthening low dropping south from Bristol Bay into the western
Gulf.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through
Thursday)...

Rain, ongoing from Sunday night, will continue into Monday as a
strong shortwave disturbance moves over Southern Alaska. Details
and timing are still being worked out, but all of the models have
precipitation expected for at least some portion of the area
throughout the day Monday. The models diverge greatly from Tuesday
onward as the aforementioned timing differences become even more
pronounced. For Anchorage, one of the models has a deluge of heavy
rain, one has scattered off-and-on showers, and a third has
nothing going on. Needless to say, uncertainty greatly increases
through midweek. In general, the models generally agree on
Wednesday being a wet day for much of Southcentral as a trough
digs over Southwest Alaska, leading to broad, moist southwesterly
flow pumping Pacific moisture into the area. The main energy
associated with Wednesday's precipitation moves off by Thursday as
the longwave trough remains largely in place. That would make
Thursday a cloudy day with some showers around, but much drier
compared with Wednesday.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale 119 120 131 132 136 150 178.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...KH
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...TM
LONG TERM...JW