Gale Warning 437, NWS Anchorage, AK

624 
FZAK62 PAFC 112347
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
347 PM AKDT Sat Aug 11 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-121415-
347 PM AKDT Sat Aug 11 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 981 mb low at 51N 170W moves to 60N 162W at 980 mb for Sun 
afternoon then shifts over the Seward Peninsula at 995 mb by Mon 
afternoon. Its front pushes into Southwest Alaska with the 
trailing front extending into the North Pacific. High pressure 
builds over the Aleutians through Mon afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-121415-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
347 PM AKDT Sat Aug 11 2018

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Areas of fog.
.SUN...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Areas of fog.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Areas of fog.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ412-121415-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
347 PM AKDT Sat Aug 11 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 to 30 kt increasing to 25 to 40 kt with gusts to
55 kt after midnight. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Patchy fog.
.SUN...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Patchy fog.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Areas of fog.
.MON...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...SE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ413-121415-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
347 PM AKDT Sat Aug 11 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Gusts to 55 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. 
Patchy fog. Rain.
.SUN...NW wind 25 to 40 kt diminishing to 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Areas of fog.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Areas of fog.
.MON...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ414-121415-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
347 PM AKDT Sat Aug 11 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.SUN...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Gusts to 55 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 19 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.THU...SW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.

$$

741 
FZAK62 PAFC 121150
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
350 AM AKDT Sun Aug 12 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-130100-
350 AM AKDT Sun Aug 12 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 977 mb low at 56N 167W moves inland near 61N 163W at 980 mb by
Mon morning. High pressure builds over the Aleutians through Mon 
afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-130100-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
350 AM AKDT Sun Aug 12 2018

.TODAY...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Areas of fog.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Areas of fog.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Areas of fog.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.TUE...W wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ412-130100-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
350 AM AKDT Sun Aug 12 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Areas of fog.
.MON...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft. Areas of fog.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ413-130100-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
350 AM AKDT Sun Aug 12 2018

.TODAY...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Areas of fog.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Areas of fog.
.MON...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft. Areas of fog.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ414-130100-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
350 AM AKDT Sun Aug 12 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.THU...W wind up to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

989 
FZAK62 PAFC 122348
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
348 PM AKDT Sun Aug 12 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-131345-
348 PM AKDT Sun Aug 12 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 981 mb low at 60N 163W moves into Interior Alaska at 1004 mb
through Tue afternoon. Its front sweeps over the Gulf of Alaska 
and trails South of the Alaska Peninsula and Aleutians for Tue 
afternoon. High pressure builds over the Western Aleutians and 
Bering by Tue afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-131345-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
348 PM AKDT Sun Aug 12 2018

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Areas of fog.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Areas of fog.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Areas of fog.
.TUE...W wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind up to 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...SW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ412-131345-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
348 PM AKDT Sun Aug 12 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Areas of fog.
.MON...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft. Areas of fog.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...W wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft.

$$

PKZ413-131345-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
348 PM AKDT Sun Aug 12 2018

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Areas of fog.
.MON...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft. Areas of fog.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Areas of fog.
.TUE...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft.

$$

PKZ414-131345-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
348 PM AKDT Sun Aug 12 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 19 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

935 
FZAK62 PAFC 131137
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
337 AM AKDT Mon Aug 13 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-140045-
337 AM AKDT Mon Aug 13 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 988 mb low at 62N 165W continues to move into Interior Alaska
through this afternoon.  High pressure builds over the Western 
Aleutians and Bering through Wed morning. A front approaches the
western Aleutians Wed morning.

$$

PKZ411-140045-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
337 AM AKDT Mon Aug 13 2018

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Areas of fog.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Areas of fog.
.TUE...NW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Areas of fog.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind up to 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...W wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft.

$$

PKZ412-140045-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
337 AM AKDT Mon Aug 13 2018

.TODAY...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Areas of fog.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...SW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.

$$

PKZ413-140045-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
337 AM AKDT Mon Aug 13 2018

.TODAY...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft. Areas of fog.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Areas of fog.
.TUE...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...N wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...E wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ414-140045-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
337 AM AKDT Mon Aug 13 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
735 PM AKDT Fri Aug 10 2018

Updated for Long Term Discussion

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

Low pressure in the eastern Bering Sea continues to push
northeastward extending a front over the eastern Bering Sea and
Alaska Peninsula. Weak support aloft and a loss of organization
aloft has allowed this low to fill and weaken but the front
remains present. Visible satellite imagery shows wide spread
cloud cover over most of southwest Alaska with a dry slot sitting
over the southwestern mainland. Radar returns are showing a swath
of rain over the western coastline stemming from that front.
Ahead of the low, a weak ridging pattern is taking hold over
eastern Alaska bringing clear skies and dry conditions to the
area.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Early on, models are in good agreement as the low pressure in the
eastern Bering dissipates. However, cohesiveness is short lived
as the remnants of typhoon Shanshan advances towards the central
Aleutians. There is quite a bit of disagreement both in the
placement of the low but also the speed in which it moves. For the
entirety of the track of this low, the EC is quite a bit faster
with the NAM sitting between the EC and the slowest solution, the
GFS. While the timing differs, the general track of the low is
consistent.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions will persist. Light winds will last into the
afternoon before increasing out of a south to southeast direction
as the pressure gradient increases due to the Bering low moving
toward southwest Alaska and ridging along the Gulf coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The forecast for this weekend will be the dominated by three
separate weather systems, each progressively stronger than the
last. Presently, a transient ridge is giving way to a shortwave
lifting through the Aleutian chain and into our area. With this,
rain will spread across Southcentral this evening and into the
overnight hours. The Anchorage Bowl can expect to see rain
beginning to fall later this evening and last through the morning
hours. By morning, there will be a 6 to 12 hour break in the rain
before a second weather system moves in on the heels of this first
one. The next weather system can be seen this evening south of
Adak and will lift in a similar manner as tonight's rainmaker.
With more of a tropical connection, heavier rains can be
anticipated to last through late Saturday night.

Attention then shifts towards the third weather system. This
system is from remnants of tropical storm Shanshan as it moves in
from the north Pacific. This low will deepen as it moves across
Bristol Bay and lifts towards Bethel Monday morning. An attendant
warm front will move across Southcentral overnight Sunday,
bringing heavy rains to coastal areas. Anchorage will be rain
shadowed for most of the time, but strong winds are anticipated.
Model guidance has not fully locked onto this post tropical system
with any consistency for the last few days. This has caused
confidence to fall a little for Anchorage, but we are anticipating
winds to increase along Turnagain Arm and the upper hillside
overnight. Some of the winds may get pulled into town for some of
the time, but it is not looking to be as strong as our last spring
time storm. Problems could arise with full foliage and very
saturated soils.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The low centered off the Kuskokwim Delta coast will weaken in
place tonight through Saturday morning while its front sweeps
across southwest Alaska. The flow aloft will be from the southwest
through Saturday evening, keeping conditions moist and showery.
The next system will begin to impact the area Saturday night, as a
very strong low moves into the eastern Bering. Winds and
precipitation will increase on Saturday night and Sunday morning
as the low moves toward the Southwest coast Sunday afternoon. The
front will quickly traverse the area during the day Sunday, and
there will be a slight risk of thunderstorms Sunday afternoon in
the middle Kuskokwim basin.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
The main weather threat will be from a strong low moving northeast
into the area Saturday and Sunday. A moisture band from the low
will precede the actual low by quite a bit, as precipitation
reaches the Alaska Peninsula late tonight. The "warm front proper"
will reach the eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula around noon
Saturday, while the Storm Force low is centered south of the
central Aleutians. The low center will then deepen and push
northeast, located near Dutch Harbor late Saturday night. The low
will cross into the eastern bering Sunday morning, reaching the
southwest Alaska coast near Cape Newenham Sunday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7: Sunday night through
Friday)...
The extended forecast beginning Sunday night remains in an active
wet pattern across the southern mainland and eastern Bering as low
pressure centers over the Kuskokwim. A cloudy pattern with drier
conditions is expected to the west across much of the central and
western Bering as a ridge builds from the North Pacific. Low pressure
over the Southwest fills as it takes a slow southeasterly track
to the Gulf Monday through Thursday. Rain should be considerably
less organized by Tuesday afternoon across the southern mainland
with the low center moving to the northeast Gulf waters.

For Wednesday through Friday, isolated to scattered chances for
rain remain across the region as short waves move about a broad
trough along the mainland. During this timeframe for the Bering,
another storm system is expected to track from west to east. Model
uncertainty increases considerably for the second part of the
week, especially in regards to this next storm system. The main
struggle for models is that a strong short wave dives south across
the eastern Bering on Wednesday and they differ in how they handle
this energy with the approaching storm from the west. A blend of
the operational models and their ensembles brings increasing chances
of rain from west to east across the Bering.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Storm warning 172.
         Gales 130 150 155 160 165 173 174 179 180 413 414.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RA
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...BL
LONG TERM...KH