Gale Warning 428, NWS Anchorage, AK

850 
FZAK51 PAFC 142340
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
340 PM AKDT Sat Jul 14 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-151230-
340 PM AKDT Sat Jul 14 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1013 mb low 50 nm SE of Seward will dissipate tonight. A 1009 mb 
low 25 nm SW of Sand Point will move to 115 nm S of Seward Sun 
morning at 1004 mb, then to 125 nm SE of Cordova at 1007 mb Mon 
morning. 

$$

PKZ119-151230-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
340 PM AKDT Sat Jul 14 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. 
Seas 7 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ120-151230-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
340 PM AKDT Sat Jul 14 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming E 25 kt after midnight.
Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 7 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ121-151230-
Resurrection Bay-
340 PM AKDT Sat Jul 14 2018

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
Widespread rain showers.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT THROUGH THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-151230-
Prince William Sound-
340 PM AKDT Sat Jul 14 2018

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable 
less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-151230-
Port Valdez-
340 PM AKDT Sat Jul 14 2018

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-151230-
Valdez Narrows-
340 PM AKDT Sat Jul 14 2018

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable 
less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-151230-
Valdez Arm-
340 PM AKDT Sat Jul 14 2018

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH THU...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-151230-
Passage Canal-
340 PM AKDT Sat Jul 14 2018

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Gusts to 20 kt near Whittier. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-151230-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
340 PM AKDT Sat Jul 14 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt becoming N 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 5 ft subsiding. Rain.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ131-151230-
Barren Islands East-
340 PM AKDT Sat Jul 14 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming NE 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ132-151230-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
340 PM AKDT Sat Jul 14 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming NW 25 kt after midnight. 
Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ136-151230-
Chiniak Bay-
340 PM AKDT Sat Jul 14 2018

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt becoming NW toward morning. 
Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt becoming W 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT THROUGH WED...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-151230-
Marmot Bay-
340 PM AKDT Sat Jul 14 2018

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt becoming NW toward morning. 
Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2
ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-151230-
Shelikof Strait-
340 PM AKDT Sat Jul 14 2018

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt becoming NW 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ139-151230-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
340 PM AKDT Sat Jul 14 2018

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt becoming S 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-151230-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
340 PM AKDT Sat Jul 14 2018

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt becoming S 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-151230-
Kachemak Bay-
340 PM AKDT Sat Jul 14 2018

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft. Rain.
.SUN...NW wind 10 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas building to 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming S 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
414 PM AKDT Fri Jul 13 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The main feature aloft remains the double barrel low over the
Bering Sea with one center over the dateline and the other east
of the Pribilof Islands. This is supporting a potent (for summertime)
storm at the surface just east of the Pribilof Islands and its
associated front that is pushing in along the Bering Sea Coast.
This front has produced storm force gusts along the Bering Sea
coast today. A strong 100-120 KT jet is rounding the base of the
upper trough of this system resulting in intensification of it and
steering it into the Gulf of Alaska. The front has crossed Kodiak
Island heading to the North Gulf Coast bringing a band of stronger
wind as well as rain as evidenced by the radar returns today to
the outer coast of the Kenai Peninsula and across southern Cook
Inlet.

Another storm is south of the western Aleutians pushing a front to
the Shemya region with a triple point low forming in the vicinity
of Amchitka. The triple point low is tracking along the jet along
and south of the Aleutians. This is spreading the clouds shield
along the Aleutians.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

The models are is good agreement with respect to the synoptic
scale. They have converged on a solution bringing the low that is
forming along the front near Kodiak east toward Middleton Island.
The models remain in agreement through the weekend racing the
triple point Aleutian low east along the Aleutians into the Gulf
of Alaska Sunday as the EC has come around to the GFS and NAM
solutions.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions remain on tap through the forecast period.
Southeast wind will be an issue into the evening. By around 09Z
the down valley flow will nudge the Turnagain Arm wind to the west
and off the airfield. The lighter north wind at the surface will
be under the strong SE wind aloft across the Chugach and may bring
in LLWS after 09Z through around 18Z, but will likely be a little above
the 2000 ft threshold for inclusion in the TAF.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A strong upper level short-wave trough will dig eastward across
the northern Gulf tonight through early Saturday, pushing an
occluded front onshore across the Kenai Peninsula and Prince
William Sound. The heaviest rain will be in the Prince William
Sound area right ahead of the short-wave. Strong southeasterly
flow ahead of the surface front will result in mostly dry
conditions tonight for the usual areas (western Kenai Peninsula,
Anchorage, Matanuska Valley) - though there may be some sprinkles
or very light rain late this afternoon or early evening before
downsloping really strengthens.

The upper trough will lift northward over Southcentral Alaska on
Saturday. With increased instability aloft and weakening downslope
flow looks like a cool, cloudy, and showery day for most of the
region. Meanwhile, another short-wave trough back over the Bering
Sea will dig southeastward on Saturday, with a weak surface low
passing just south of Kodiak Island then to the northeastern Gulf
on Sunday. This will spread another round of rain from Kodiak on
Saturday to eastern Prince William Sound and the southeastern
Copper River Basin Saturday night and Sunday. Mostly cloudy skies
and scattered convection will persist on the back side of this low
across the remainder of Southcentral. A drying trend will ensure
Sunday night as the upper trough exits to the east.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
An elongated area of low pressure spanning the eastern Bering
Sea is the primary weather maker for tonight and into this
weekend. An attendant front to this low progressed across the
AKPEN this morning and into Southwest Alaska. Shower activity that
brought nearly a quarter inch of rain will slowly weaken, but not
entirely diminish overnight. The surface low will drift across
the mainland and will still cause sporadic shower activity through
Saturday afternoon. Guidance was hinting at the possibility of a
few lightning strikes into the early afternoon tomorrow near King
Salmon and Dillingham, but that will depend on how clear the skies
can get and whether or not the atmosphere truly destabilizes. At
this point, confidence is low and will keep any mention out of the
going forecast as cloudcover looks to be predominant.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
The aforementioned elongated low will exit the Bering Sea as an
upper level trough dives in from the Kamchatka Peninsula and
merges with a weak wave moving in from the North Pacific. Behind
both of these systems is ridging that will build in and stabilize
the region through the beginning of the week. Winds across the
area will be below small craft levels after tomorrow afternoon and
through the weekend. Chances showers diminish once the trough
passes.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

The models continue to support the concept of a progressive
pattern in the long-term period which begins Monday evening. The
forecast period commences with a longwave trough spanning from
the Beaufort Sea to the Gulf of Alaska and ridging over the
Central Aleutians and the Pribilof Islands. By Tuesday, both the
GFS and the ECMWF depict a second trough with a negative tilt
shortwave moving into the Western Aleutians. This new disturbance
will shift the ridge axis over Southcentral AK and Prince William
Sound Wednesday. With ridging in place, anticipate widespread
subsidence and a warming trend for the Anchorage Metro Area and
the Mat-Su valleys midweek. A secondary impulse of energy will
descend into the longwave trough over the Bering from the Arctic
resulting in another round of cyclogenesis for Western Alaska and
the AKPEN. The GFS and the ECMWF both depict an expansive
precipitation shield by Wednesday for the Western portion of the
state and the North Pacific, however the GFS is slightly quicker
bringing the QPF up Cook Inlet on Thursday. Stay tuned for more
details.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale 130.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SA
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SEB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...SS
LONG TERM...PS