Gale Warning 413, NWS Anchorage, AK

067 
FZAK62 PAFC 061159
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
359 AM AKDT Fri Jul 6 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-070130-
359 AM AKDT Fri Jul 6 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 999 mb low at 50N 170E moves to 57N 179W at 990 mb for Sat
afternoon then shifts to 57N 171W at 986 mb by Sun morning. Its
front pushes across the Aleutians and Bering through Bristol Bay
into the Gulf of Alaska by Sun morning.

$$

PKZ411-070130-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
359 AM AKDT Fri Jul 6 2018

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.TONIGHT...N to E wind 15 to 30 kt in the evening becoming N to W. 
Seas 5 to 9 ft. Rain.
.SAT...NE to SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.

$$

PKZ412-070130-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
359 AM AKDT Fri Jul 6 2018

.TODAY...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.SAT...E to S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.

$$

PKZ413-070130-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
359 AM AKDT Fri Jul 6 2018

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt in the evening becoming SW. Seas 5 to 
10 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 19 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ414-070130-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
359 AM AKDT Fri Jul 6 2018

.TODAY...SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...S to E wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft. Rain.
.SAT...S to W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

871 
FZAK62 PAFC 062330
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
330 PM AKDT Fri Jul 6 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-071300-
330 PM AKDT Fri Jul 6 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 998 mb low at 54N 177E will move to 57N 180W at 989 mb 
Sat morning. The low will then move to 60N 164W at 985 mb 
Sun afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-071300-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
330 PM AKDT Fri Jul 6 2018

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft. Rain.
.SAT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt increasing to 25 to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.MON...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.

$$

PKZ412-071300-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
330 PM AKDT Fri Jul 6 2018

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.SAT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt in the evening becoming W. 
Seas 8 to 13 ft. Rain.
.SUN...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.

$$

PKZ413-071300-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
330 PM AKDT Fri Jul 6 2018

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 19 ft. Rain.
.SUN...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ414-071300-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
330 PM AKDT Fri Jul 6 2018

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

727 
FZAK62 PAFC 071202
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
402 AM AKDT Sat Jul 7 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-080115-
402 AM AKDT Sat Jul 7 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 993 mb low at 57N 179E moves to 61N 164W at 983 mb by Mon morning.
Its front extends across the Northern Bering into Southwest Alaska 
with the trailing front over the Alaska Peninsula and Aleutians 
through Mon morning.

$$

PKZ411-080115-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
402 AM AKDT Sat Jul 7 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S of 57N...NW to W wind 20 to 35 kt. N of 57N...N to E wind
15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Areas of fog. Rain.
.TONIGHT...N to W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft. Areas of fog. 
VSBY 1 NM or less.
.SUN...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft. Areas of fog. VSBY 1
NM or less.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.MON...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.

$$

PKZ412-080115-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
402 AM AKDT Sat Jul 7 2018

.TODAY...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt except S wind 15 to 30 kt E of 175W 
during the evening. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain.
.SUN...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ413-080115-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
402 AM AKDT Sat Jul 7 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft in the morning 
building to 9 to 15 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 19 ft. Areas of fog.
Rain showers.
.SUN...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft. Areas of fog.
Widespread rain showers. VSBY 1 NM or less.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft.
.MON...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ414-080115-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
402 AM AKDT Sat Jul 7 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft. Patchy fog. VSBY 1
NM or less in the morning.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft building to 10 to
18 ft after midnight. Widespread rain showers.
.SUN...S to W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Widespread rain
showers.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

953 
FZAK62 PAFC 072323
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
323 PM AKDT Sat Jul 7 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-081300-
323 PM AKDT Sat Jul 7 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 987 mb low at 58N 178W will move to 58N 167W at 984 mb 
Sun morning. The low will then move inland over the 
Kuskokwim Delta Mon morning.

$$

PKZ411-081300-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
323 PM AKDT Sat Jul 7 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft. Areas of fog. 
VSBY 1 NM or less.
.SUN...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft. Areas of fog. 
VSBY 1 NM or less.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt diminishing to up to 20 kt 
after midnight. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.MON...W wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.

$$

PKZ412-081300-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
323 PM AKDT Sat Jul 7 2018

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain.
.SUN...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.

$$

PKZ413-081300-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
323 PM AKDT Sat Jul 7 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 19 ft. Areas of fog.
Widespread rain showers.
.SUN...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 19 ft. Areas of fog. Rain.
VSBY 1 NM or less.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft.
.MON...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ414-081300-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
323 PM AKDT Sat Jul 7 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. Widespread rain
showers.
.SUN...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Widespread rain
showers.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain.
.MON...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.

$$

205 
FZAK62 PAFC 081159
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
359 AM AKDT Sun Jul 8 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-090045-
359 AM AKDT Sun Jul 8 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 987 mb low at 58N 173W moves to 61N 163W at 990 mb for Tue 
morning. Its front wraps across the Northern Bering through Southwest
Alaska and trails south of the Aleutians to a 1011 mb low near 48N 
171E by Tue morning. A 1007 mb North Kamchatka low Mon morning moves 
to 56N 176E at 1008 mb by Tue morning.

$$

PKZ411-090045-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
359 AM AKDT Sun Jul 8 2018

.TODAY...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft. Areas of fog. VSBY
1 NM or less.
.TONIGHT...N to W wind 15 to 30 kt diminishing to 10 to 20 kt after 
midnight. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Areas of fog. VSBY 1 NM or less.
.MON...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft. Areas of fog. VSBY 1 NM
or less.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.THU...NW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ412-090045-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
359 AM AKDT Sun Jul 8 2018

.TODAY...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Areas of fog. VSBY
1 NM or less.
.TONIGHT...N to W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.
.THU...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ413-090045-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
359 AM AKDT Sun Jul 8 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft. Areas of fog. Rain.
VSBY 1 NM or less.
.TONIGHT...N to W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft. Areas of fog.
VSBY 1 NM or less.
.MON...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ414-090045-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
359 AM AKDT Sun Jul 8 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S to NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Widespread rain
showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.

$$

539 
FZAK62 PAFC 082323
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
323 PM AKDT Sun Jul 8 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-091300-
323 PM AKDT Sun Jul 8 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 984 mb low at 59N 166W will move inland over Bethel Mon afternoon.
The associated front will dissipate over the western Aleutians 
Mon night and continue moving east through Tue. Low pressure 
builds over the western Aleutians Mon morning through Tue. 

$$

PKZ411-091300-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
323 PM AKDT Sun Jul 8 2018

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt diminishing to up to 20 kt after
midnight. Seas 8 to 11 ft. Areas of fog. VSBY 1 NM or less.
.MON...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft. Areas of fog. 
VSBY 1 NM or less.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind up to 20 kt becoming E up to 15 kt after
midnight. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...SE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...SW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...NW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ412-091300-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
323 PM AKDT Sun Jul 8 2018

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.TUE...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...S wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ413-091300-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
323 PM AKDT Sun Jul 8 2018

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft. Areas of fog.
VSBY 1 NM or less.
.MON...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.

$$

PKZ414-091300-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
323 PM AKDT Sun Jul 8 2018

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
500 AM AKDT Thu Jul 5 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A trough extending from a Canadian Arctic low combines with a
Russian Arctic high and the flattening North Pacific ridge
to spread northerly flow over most of Mainland Alaska. The
western portions of the state are in transition with the various
changes going on around the region. Plenty of low stratus and
patchy fog has moved in from the Bering courtesy of the flat
ridge. Way out west, southwesterly flow has developed over the
Bering. This will help to feed in the extratropical remnants of
Prapiroon as its front enter the Western Bering. The vertically-
stacked front in the eastern Gulf moves further east as the trough
from the Arctic sweeps along the ALCAN Border. This trough has
aided in the development of convection (to included some isolated
thunderstorms) over the Eastern Alaska Range and Copper River
Valley this morning.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models remain in good synoptic agreement, thus, forecast
confidence remains moderate to high through Sat. The few
subtleties that remain in question are convective potential with
the trough from the north later today. The GEM continues to
advertise less precipitation than the other models as this
feature slide from NW to SE this evening. We have erred on the
drier side with this feature due to the antecedent dry air and the
face it is coming from the north over the AK Range. All models
agree that Fri is going to another rather hot day across southern
AK. Exactly where the surface high sets up will dictate exactly
how strong the offshore flow will be (and how hot it will get).
Finally, all models are now in rather good agreement with the
impending pattern change Sat night-Sun. Extra-tropical remnants
combine with the trough over the Bering. They work together to
push a fairly vigorous front through Southcentral early Sun. We
have ratcheted winds up a fair amount with this package.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (through Friday)...

The upper trough dropping south across the interior is a little
slower than originally thought, but is still on the way. Showers
with this feature will slowly drift south across the northern
Susitna Valley and Copper River Basin this morning and head south
through the afternoon.  Isolated thunderstorms are expected over
the Copper River Basin and along the Talkeetna Mountains. The
upper trough moves offshore early Friday morning. The building
ridge on the backside (north) will deepen the northerly flow and
bring drier and more stable conditions across Southcentral through
Friday. Many areas will see decreasing cloud cover and a rebound
in temperatures with afternoon highs well into the 70s. There is
still a chance of afternoon showers Friday along the mountains in
the eastern Copper River Basin as a few passing upper waves skirt
the northeast edge of the upper ridge.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3...Thu
through Sat)...
Today will see more clouds and some residual showers before
yielding to drier and warmer conditions Fri and much of Sat.
Westerly flow over top of the North Pacific ridge has ushered in
widespread marine stratus and some patchy fog. A chance for
showers will continue, primarily along the AK Range, as a
shortwave clips SW AK from the north today. Starting Fri, a drying
trend will take place as some ridging tries to build in from the
NW portion of AK. This should lead to slowly clearing skies and
somewhat warmer temperatures. An impressive front starts to track
through the Bering on Sat. But before this feature arrives, SE
winds will develop in front it. This will spell another dry day
across the area and still slightly warmer temperatures yet. Winds
will continue as the front moves in Sun.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3...Thu
through Sat)...
Relatively quiet conditions will last for one more day today
before a large low develops over the Western Bering. The leading
front will move into the Western Aleutians tonight bringing some
near gale-force southeasterly winds. Then some remnant tropical
storm energy gets wrapped in on Fri and helps to re-establish the
longwave trough over the region. This will pave the wave for a
low-mid 990 mb surface low to track into the Western Bering late
Fri. This system will bring a healthy amount of rain to the
islands. As the winds shift around to southwesterly behind the
initial front, expect the first round of gale-force winds the area
has seen in some time. The low will then continue a slow trek
east as it envelops the entire Bering Sea.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...(from Wed afternoon AFD)
Strong ridging covering mainland Alaska on Saturday will shift
east into Canada Saturday night and Sunday. An unseasonably strong
low in the Bering will continue east with its associated frontal
system reaching the Kuskokwim Delta Coast Saturday afternoon and
then pushing inland into Southwest Alaska Saturday night. Out
ahead of the front, southerly flow aloft will increase shower and
isolated thunderstorm chances in the mountains Saturday evening.
The initial frontal system will cross the Alaska/Aleutian Range
and spread increasing southeasterly winds and precipitation across
Southcentral Alaska on Sunday as lee-side effects help spin up an
open wave triple point and re-strengthen the frontal system. To
the west, a stronger second wrap tracking into the eastern Bering
and Bristol Bay area on Sunday will rotate up into Southwest
Alaska Sunday evening bringing wetter and windy conditions to that
area as well. With an upper level low persisting in the vicinity
of Southwest Alaska and trough extending east across Mainland
Alaska, wet weather is expected to continue through much of the
week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KZ/MSO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...RMC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MSO
LONG TERM...JER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
National Weather Service ANCHORAGE AK
155 PM AKDT Thu Jul 5 2018

AKZ111-072200-
Matanuska Valley-
Including the cities of Palmer, Wasilla, Sutton, and Chickaloon
155 PM AKDT Thu Jul 5 2018

...HIGH WATER LEVELS CAUSING EROSION ALONG THE MATANUSKA RIVER...

The water level on the Matanuska River near Palmer is high and
approaching bankfull due to increased snow melt from the warm
temperatures. We anticipate these conditions may persist for
through the weekend.

EXPECTED IMPACTS:

Localized minor out-of-bank flooding may occur, especially along
parts of the Glenn Highway east of Sutton from milepost 64 to 66.
Boaters should anticipate potential debris associated with high
water.

For further information on conditions in the area and for the
history of flooding and erosion along the Matanuska River, please
visit www.weather.gov/afc/MatanuskaRiver