Gale Warning 404, NWS Anchorage, AK

071 
FZAK52 PAFC 092309
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
309 PM AKDT Sat Jun 9 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-101215-
309 PM AKDT Sat Jun 9 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

High pressure will remain over the Bering Sea through Mon
afternoon. A 992 mb low 330 nm south of Dutch Harbor will move 
east and weaken through Mon afternoon. A front over the western
Aleutians will remain stationary through Sun afternoon then 
retreat westward through Mon afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-101215-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
309 PM AKDT Sat Jun 9 2018

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt except SW 10 kt along the coast. Seas 6 ft.
Areas of fog.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Areas of fog.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ155-101215-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
309 PM AKDT Sat Jun 9 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind increasing to 30 kt. Seas building to 12 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ160-101215-
Bristol Bay-
309 PM AKDT Sat Jun 9 2018

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Areas of fog.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 1 foot. Areas of fog.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 1 foot.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ165-101215-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
309 PM AKDT Sat Jun 9 2018

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Areas of fog.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Areas of fog.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ170-101215-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
309 PM AKDT Sat Jun 9 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Areas of fog.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Areas of fog.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ171-101215-
Unalaska Bay-
309 PM AKDT Sat Jun 9 2018

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3
ft. Areas of fog.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Areas of fog.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-101215-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
309 PM AKDT Sat Jun 9 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ173-101215-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
309 PM AKDT Sat Jun 9 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ174-101215-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
309 PM AKDT Sat Jun 9 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ175-101215-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
309 PM AKDT Sat Jun 9 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ176-101215-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
309 PM AKDT Sat Jun 9 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ177-101215-
Adak to Kiska-
309 PM AKDT Sat Jun 9 2018

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ178-101215-
Kiska to Attu-
309 PM AKDT Sat Jun 9 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind increasing to 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ179-101215-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
309 PM AKDT Sat Jun 9 2018

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Areas of fog.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Areas of fog.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ180-101215-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
309 PM AKDT Sat Jun 9 2018

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Areas of fog.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Areas of fog.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ181-101215-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
309 PM AKDT Sat Jun 9 2018

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Areas of fog.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ185-101215-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
309 PM AKDT Sat Jun 9 2018

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
441 PM AKDT Fri Jun 8 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A dying low in the Gulf of Alaska and a weak low in Western Prince
William Sound are just strong enough to create a band of rain as
a shortwave moves offshore. A general northerly flow is working
over most of the Southcentral mainland.

Another shortwave is moving eastward over the Southern Bering,
gathering moisture and adding some cumuloform growth west of the
Pribilof Islands to what is otherwise controlled by stratus and
fog south of 60N. Fog and stratus began the day over much of
Southwest Alaska and the Aleutians. Visibility and ceilings have
remained low, keeping a lock on a cooler, more stable atmosphere
in the region. Some midday sunshine will make an attempt to start
precipitation in Southwest, but the focus for widespread
convection will have to be further north today which is good news
for fire weather concerns.

Meanwhile, it's a chamber of commerce day for Kodiak and vicinity
with an upper-level ridge working over the nation's second
largest island.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
As a low moves south of the Aleutian Chain, most of the models
had a clear picture for the West domain. A blend was used to guide
the forecast over Western Alaska and the Chain today. For
Southcentral, Kodiak Island and Prince William Sound, the NAM was
used to capture local effects.

Even an aspiring meteorologist will note the Arctic jet stream
pointed at Alaska from the pole. This will focus convection
further south in the coming days and add a cooler trend early into
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period. We
expect a southeast breeze to develop off the Turnagain arm this
afternoon which should relax late this evening. A westerly sea
breezes will then develop for the day on Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

The thermal trough at the surface has developed again today over
the Alaskan Interior. Diurnal heating coupled with weak impulses
aloft near the Alaska Range will increase thunderstorm potential
this evening and again tomorrow afternoon. There is a major shift
in pattern anticipated this weekend as vortex of low pressure
dives across the Beaufort Sea enabling cool air to filter towards
the Brooks Range. A shortwave drops south into the Alaska Range
late Saturday night. On Sunday that shortwave axis will be over
Southcentral. The most favorable locations for thunderstorms and
showers will be across the Copper River Basin, Susitna Valley, and
along the Talkeetna Mountains. As the aforementioned low vortex
deepens, expect the thermal trough that had been setting up along
the interior to get washed out.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Weak upper level flow remains dominant over the region, and with
subtle but persistent interior thermal troughing, this is enough
to induce a weak onshore flow into Southwest. This has brought in
rather extensive stratus and some fog into Southwest, which has
also resulted in more stable conditions. The net result is fog and
stratus will likely return to coastal areas tonight, but
thunderstorm activity this evening will be isolated and sparse
for interior locations and the Alaska Range.

Tomorrow will likely be a little warmer and stratus may burn off
faster, but the same general pattern will persist with most
thunderstorm threats over the Alaska Range and the Kuskokwim
Valley. Sunday will see a shift in the pattern as offshore flow
increases and brings in much drier and warmer air to
Southwest...which will also act to shut off convective potential.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

A low skirting the Aleutian Chain will continue to move east
tonight through Sunday, bringing a burst of near gale force east
to northeast winds to the chain. Otherwise, the rest of the Bering
Sea will be under the influence of a surface high, which means,
you guessed it...marine stratus and fog. This pattern will persist
until Monday. There is a chance the eastern Bering Sea breaks
through with offshore flow increasing.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...
Models have come into better agreement regarding an arctic trough
digging south Sunday into early next week. There is better
clustering in model solutions showing the trough digging south
across the eastern half of the state while high pressure will keep
the western half under dry northerly flow. This should bring
cooler air and a large area of precipitation to Southcentral,
focused mostly over the Copper River Basin, though some precip may
make it west of the Chugach and Talkeetna Mountains Monday night
and into Tuesday.

Heading into Wednesday, high pressure over the Bering looks to
nudge its way in over the interior and Southern Mainland leading
to clearing conditions with rebounding temperatures, though they
look to be at or slightly below normal for this time of year. This
pattern looks to hold until the end of the week as a low pressure
system tracking south of the Aleutians will curve northeast
towards the AKPEN spreading heavier precipitation into southwest
and southern Alaska. This system could have an extra punch to it
as the remnants of Tropical Storm Maliksi, currently in the South
China Sea, is forecasted to re-curve northeast and get absorbed
into the low, bringing an extra slug of moisture towards our area.

Looking out past next week, we could be in store for a wet
pattern as a blocking ridge amplifies over the western US coast
redirecting the storm track into southern and southwest Alaska.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale 174.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...PJS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JA
LONG TERM...KVP