Gale Warning 402, NWS Anchorage, AK

421 
FZAK52 PAFC 071637 AAA
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast...UPDATED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
837 AM AKDT Thu Jun 7 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-080315-
837 AM AKDT Thu Jun 7 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A trough over Bristol Bay and Southwest Alaska slides inland for
Fri morning. High pressure builds over the Bering through Sat 
morning. A 992 mb North Pacific low moves to 260 NM southeast at 
985 mb by Sat morning. Its front remains South of the Aleutians 
through Sat morning.

$$

PKZ150-080315-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
837 AM AKDT Thu Jun 7 2018

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ155-080315-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
837 AM AKDT Thu Jun 7 2018

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt in the morning becoming SE 15 kt. From
 the Shumagin Islands E, variable 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ160-080315-
Bristol Bay-
837 AM AKDT Thu Jun 7 2018

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Areas of fog.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 foot.

$$

PKZ165-080315-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
837 AM AKDT Thu Jun 7 2018

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt in the morning becoming E wind 15 kt. 
From Port Moller E, variable 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ170-080315-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
837 AM AKDT Thu Jun 7 2018

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt becoming E 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ171-080315-
Unalaska Bay-
837 AM AKDT Thu Jun 7 2018

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-080315-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
837 AM AKDT Thu Jun 7 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt becoming E 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
5 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ173-080315-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
837 AM AKDT Thu Jun 7 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ174-080315-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
837 AM AKDT Thu Jun 7 2018

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SE 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ175-080315-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
837 AM AKDT Thu Jun 7 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ176-080315-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
837 AM AKDT Thu Jun 7 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ177-080315-
Adak to Kiska-
837 AM AKDT Thu Jun 7 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ178-080315-
Kiska to Attu-
837 AM AKDT Thu Jun 7 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ179-080315-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
837 AM AKDT Thu Jun 7 2018

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Areas of fog. 
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ180-080315-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
837 AM AKDT Thu Jun 7 2018

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Areas of fog. 
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ181-080315-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
837 AM AKDT Thu Jun 7 2018

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Areas of fog. 
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ185-080315-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
837 AM AKDT Thu Jun 7 2018

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...N 15 kt W
of Saint Matthew Island. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

287 
FZAK52 PAFC 072254
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
254 PM AKDT Thu Jun 7 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-081200-
254 PM AKDT Thu Jun 7 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

High pressure centered over the northwest Bering will move across 
the western Aleutians Fri night. A 990 mb North Pacific low about 450
NM south of Shemya moves to 315 NM south of Dutch harbor at 993 mb 
Sat.

$$

PKZ150-081200-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
254 PM AKDT Thu Jun 7 2018

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ155-081200-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
254 PM AKDT Thu Jun 7 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. From
the Shumagin Islands E, SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ160-081200-
Bristol Bay-
254 PM AKDT Thu Jun 7 2018

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Areas of fog.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 foot.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 foot.

$$

PKZ165-081200-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
254 PM AKDT Thu Jun 7 2018

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Areas of fog.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt becoming E 15 kt in the afternoon. From
Port Moller E, variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Areas of fog.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ170-081200-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
254 PM AKDT Thu Jun 7 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ171-081200-
Unalaska Bay-
254 PM AKDT Thu Jun 7 2018

.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 10 kt becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt becoming NE after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-081200-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
254 PM AKDT Thu Jun 7 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt becoming E 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ173-081200-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
254 PM AKDT Thu Jun 7 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ174-081200-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
254 PM AKDT Thu Jun 7 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SE 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ175-081200-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
254 PM AKDT Thu Jun 7 2018

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ176-081200-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
254 PM AKDT Thu Jun 7 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ177-081200-
Adak to Kiska-
254 PM AKDT Thu Jun 7 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ178-081200-
Kiska to Attu-
254 PM AKDT Thu Jun 7 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ179-081200-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
254 PM AKDT Thu Jun 7 2018

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Areas of fog.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Areas of fog.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ180-081200-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
254 PM AKDT Thu Jun 7 2018

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Areas of fog.
.FRI...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Areas of fog.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt becoming N after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ181-081200-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
254 PM AKDT Thu Jun 7 2018

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Areas of fog.
.FRI...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Areas of fog.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ185-081200-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
254 PM AKDT Thu Jun 7 2018

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
500 PM AKDT Wed Jun 6 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The synoptic scale pattern has a large upper level low over the
southern Gulf of Alaska with a trough trailing to the west, south
of the Alaska Peninsula and eastern Aleutians. An upper level high
is over the Bering Sea and the thermal trough extends from the
upper Yukon Valley southwest to the Kilbuck Mountains. Bringing
this down to the mesoscale we have a easterly wave transiting off
the Alaska Range through the Bristol Bay and middle Kuskokwim
Valley regions that is keeping the convection brewing over
southwest Alaska today. This will be the primary focus for this
evening and tonight as daytime heating fuels continued convection.
Another easterly wave is now moving across Prince William Sound
and the Copper River basin into Southcentral Alaska. Moisture
remaining from last night is over the Talkeetna Mountains and
Susitna Valley, and will be available to support convection this
evening.

The high pressure over the Bering Sea is resulting in stratus and
fog over the eastern Bering Sea and the Pribilofs today. Visible
satellite shows a distinct northern edge to this stratus and fog
just to the north of the Pribilofs heading south, thus expect
rapid clearing of the stratus and fog. Further west is yet another
North Pacific low heading toward south of the Aleutians, likely
only bringing a glancing blow to the central and western Aleutians
over the next day or two.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models continue to be in generally good agreement through the
short term. The main challenge is the timing and track of the
easterly waves over the next several days and the timing and
location of the convection. By day 3 the models begin to diverge
on the location of a developing low south of the Aleutians, although
they are coming into closer agreement. We will maintain the
current forecast trend in the longer range due to the the lack of
run to run consistency in the longer range model forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions are expected through the evening along with
showers in the vicinity of the airfield. Gusty southeast winds
will increase late this evening and continue into early Thursday
morning. There is then expected be a lull in the winds for most of
the morning on Thursday before increasing again for the afternoon
and evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2: Thursday
and Friday)...

Scattered thunderstorms developing along a westward moving line
over the Talkeetna Mountains will continue into the evening,
eventually making their way towards Talkeetna and Broad Pass.
Meanwhile additional thunderstorms are developing along the
Alaska Range in the Copper River Basin. These too are expected to
continue into the evening hours. Further south towards Anchorage
and the Matanuska Valley, morning cloud cover has largely
prevented enough instability to build up to allow for thunderstorm
development, but a stray shower or two cannot be ruled out.

On Thursday, the thermal trough supporting the development of
thunderstorms will move northward away from the area, leading to a
general reduction in the number of storms over the Copper River
Basin and Susitna Valley on Thursday. With that said, isolated
storms are still possible again Thursday and Friday along the
Alaska Range and Talkeetna Mountains. Meanwhile, temperatures
across Southcentral will gradually rise each day, with lower 70s
forecast over much of the Susitna Valley and Copper River Basin by
Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
With strong instability and the thermal trough in place over
Southwest Alaska, expect to see the already very active
convective pattern continue well into the evening. North to
northwesterly flow over the Kuskokwim Delta should keep
thunderstorms pushed further to the east as compared to yesterday
with vast majority of activity occurring from the Kilbuck
Mountains eastward. Portions of the Wood Tikchik Mountains that
have been sunny through the day, are the convergence line between
the northerly flow from the Kuskokwim Delta and the southerly flow
off of Bristol and additionally have the thermal trough located
overhead have elevated potential for strong to severe thunderstorm
development.

With easterly flow persisting into the weekend and the continued
presence of the thermal trough, isolated to scattered thunderstorm
activity will continue each afternoon and evening with the highest
lightning concentration continuing to follow the axis of the
thermal trough.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
Weather over the Bering remains generally quiet as upper level
ridging builds in from the north. A North Pacific low well south
of the Aleutians will track to the east through Thursday night to
be south of the central Aleutians by Friday morning. A rapidly
developing triple point low out ahead of it will swing northeast
on Friday to swings a front up to the eastern Aleutians and
western Alaska Peninsula late Friday night and Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...
Beginning Saturday evening, the southern half of the state will
be dominated by weak ridging while a low tracks slowly east along
the southern side of the Aleutian chain. This should lead to
pleasant weather, especially out across SW Alaska over the
weekend, with some diurnally driven convection likely in the
afternoon.

A bit more uncertainty has creeped into the long term forecast as
models are struggling to handle a large upper level low dropping
south from the Arctic Ocean and across the northern half of the
state. Models are not in agreement with how far south energy
associated with this system makes it. The EC is the most
aggressive in bringing a potent short wave trough south across
the Alaska Range out ahead out the low Saturday evening through
Sunday morning. This would bring cloudier and wetter weather to
Southcentral with widespread thunderstorm activity likely over the
Susitna and Copper River Valleys. The GFS solution keeps energy
associated with the low over the eastern half of the state and
mostly north of the Alaska Range, keeping the majority of
Southcentral drier and warmer. For now, the long term forecast
will trend towards the ensemble solution which more closely
follows the GFS' solution.

There is overall good agreement regarding a large area of high
pressure over NE Russia building southeast across the Bering and
over the western half of the state, even nudging into
southcentral, by the beginning of next week. This will lead to
drier and much warmer conditions for the southern mainland through
the middle of the week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Severe Thunderstorm Warning 161.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SA
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JW
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JR
LONG TERM...KVP