Gale Warning 401, NWS Anchorage, AK

017 
FZAK52 PAFC 022314
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
314 PM AKDT Sat Jun 2 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-031230-
314 PM AKDT Sat Jun 2 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 970 mb low 355 nm Southwest of St Matthew Island moves to 350 nm
North of Attu at 998 mb for Mon afternoon. Its front wraps over 
the Northern Bering into Western Alaska through Mon afternoon. A 
983 mb low 370 nm West of Attu on Sun morning moves to 75 nm North
of Dutch Harbor at 997 mb by Mon afternoon. Its front sweeps the 
Aleutians to the Alaska Peninsula by Mon afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-031230-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
314 PM AKDT Sat Jun 2 2018

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ155-031230-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
314 PM AKDT Sat Jun 2 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt except E 15 kt from the Shumagin
Islands E. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ160-031230-
Bristol Bay-
314 PM AKDT Sat Jun 2 2018

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ165-031230-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
314 PM AKDT Sat Jun 2 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt out of bays and passes in the
evening. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ170-031230-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
314 PM AKDT Sat Jun 2 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ171-031230-
Unalaska Bay-
314 PM AKDT Sat Jun 2 2018

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-031230-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
314 PM AKDT Sat Jun 2 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ173-031230-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
314 PM AKDT Sat Jun 2 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ174-031230-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
314 PM AKDT Sat Jun 2 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ175-031230-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
314 PM AKDT Sat Jun 2 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ176-031230-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
314 PM AKDT Sat Jun 2 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ177-031230-
Adak to Kiska-
314 PM AKDT Sat Jun 2 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ178-031230-
Kiska to Attu-
314 PM AKDT Sat Jun 2 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ179-031230-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
314 PM AKDT Sat Jun 2 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ180-031230-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
314 PM AKDT Sat Jun 2 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ181-031230-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
314 PM AKDT Sat Jun 2 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ185-031230-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
314 PM AKDT Sat Jun 2 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

610 
FZAK52 PAFC 031151
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
351 AM AKDT Sun Jun 3 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-040100-
351 AM AKDT Sun Jun 3 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 985 mb low over Shemya will move to 65 nm southeast of Cold Bay 
at 1002 mb Tue morning. A weak front over the Alaska Peninsula 
will remain nearly stationary through Tue morning.

$$

PKZ150-040100-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
351 AM AKDT Sun Jun 3 2018

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ155-040100-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
351 AM AKDT Sun Jun 3 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt except SE 15 kt from the Shumagin
Islands E. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ160-040100-
Bristol Bay-
351 AM AKDT Sun Jun 3 2018

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ165-040100-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
351 AM AKDT Sun Jun 3 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ170-040100-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
351 AM AKDT Sun Jun 3 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ171-040100-
Unalaska Bay-
351 AM AKDT Sun Jun 3 2018

.TODAY...S wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than 10 
kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-040100-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
351 AM AKDT Sun Jun 3 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ173-040100-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
351 AM AKDT Sun Jun 3 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ174-040100-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
351 AM AKDT Sun Jun 3 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ175-040100-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
351 AM AKDT Sun Jun 3 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ176-040100-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
351 AM AKDT Sun Jun 3 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ177-040100-
Adak to Kiska-
351 AM AKDT Sun Jun 3 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ178-040100-
Kiska to Attu-
351 AM AKDT Sun Jun 3 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ179-040100-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
351 AM AKDT Sun Jun 3 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ180-040100-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
351 AM AKDT Sun Jun 3 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ181-040100-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
351 AM AKDT Sun Jun 3 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ185-040100-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
351 AM AKDT Sun Jun 3 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...E of Saint Matthew Island, S wind 30 kt diminishing to
20 kt in the afternoon. W of Saint Matthew Island, S wind 30 kt.
Seas 19 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
14 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
454 PM AKDT Fri Jun 1 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The synoptic pattern remains with a large upper and surface low
moving into the western Aleutians and western Bering Sea with a
potent gale force to low storm force front. A strong jet
supporting this low is rounding the base of the trough. Weak
ridging in advance of this storm is over the eastern Aleutians and
eastern Bering Sea pushing east toward the mainland. Weak low
pressure remains over the Gulf of Alaska and a weak low is over
the southern Yukon Territory advecting moisture and clouds into
the Copper River Basin. Higher CAPE values are driving the
instability across the Copper River Basin into the Talkeetna
Mountains, although the lack of moisture in the Susitna Valley is
preventing the convective growth anticipated. The northeast
steering flow is pushing the convective development along the
Talkeetna Mountains to the southwest.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The models are in excellent agreement with respect to the strong
low and front now impacting the western Aleutians and western
Bering Sea and its expected progression through the weekend. The
models have a good handle on the magnitude of the wind associated
with this storm with storm force wind south of it and a large
area of gales in advance of the front.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light diurnal winds are expected to
persist through early Saturday afternoon. Southerly winds are
expected to increase later Saturday afternoon and continue into
the evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2: Saturday
and Sunday)...
A few isolated showers and storms have developed this afternoon
along the Talkeetna Mountains. A light northeasterly steering
level wind is moving the showers off the mountains and into the
Matanuska Valley. This will continue for that area into the
evening hours. It appears unlikely at this time that any of that
activity will survive the trip down to Anchorage, but it cannot be
ruled out. Either way, the slow moving nature of the storms
should give those outside plenty of time to seek shelter until the
showers and storms pass. The showers are more plentiful further
east into the Copper River Basin, along the western Susitna
Valley, and across Kodiak Island as well. This activity will
diminish later this evening, once the sun gets low enough in the
sky to no longer be an effective energy source for the convection.

On Saturday, we will have a repeat day as far as shower and
possible isolated thunderstorm activity goes for many areas from
the Matanuska Valley north. With the upper level ridge axis right
over Southcentral, the flow should be very light, and thus any
storms that form along the mountains should be nearly stationary,
or drift northeastward. Coastal ridging is expected to develop
across the north Gulf Coast during the day. That combined with
the thermal trough over interior Alaska will invigorate the
Turnagain Arm and Knik River Valley winds. The thermal trough
should allow the Turnagain wind to move into south and west
Anchorage. Gusts of 35-45 mph are possible along Turnagain Arm and
higher elevations, and gusts up to 35 mph possible through south
and west Anchorage, and through the Knik River Valley and into
Palmer Saturday afternoon. The Turnagain Arm wind is expected to
persist through the overnight/twilight hours and diminish Sunday
morning.

For Sunday, the upper level ridge will persist overhead and
continue to strengthen. This warming of the upper levels should
inhibit most shower and storm activity except right along the
Alaska Range, though the typical daily cumulus field may develop
in the areas where there is more moisture. Otherwise, winds will
remain nearly calm with lots of sunshine expected. An easterly
wave moves into Southcentral Monday, which may touch off more
organized thunderstorms along the Talkeetnas and Alaska Range Monday
afternoon. However, this will depend on the timing, which is
still questionable at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
An upper level ridge building into SW Alaska will yield warmer
and drier weather over the region through Saturday. Showers with
some isolated thunderstorms will continue to develop over the
Middle Kuskokwim River Valley this evening and slowly drift south
towards the Greater Bristol Bay area before dying out later
tonight. As the ridge axis moves over SW Alaska tonight, a
persistent marine layer currently lingering over the Eastern
Bering Sea will advect south and east towards the Kuskokwim Delta
and Bristol Bay Coasts, bringing periods of low stratus and fog
in the morning, especially along the Northern AKPEN coastline.

Diurnal convection will redevelop Saturday afternoon, but looks
to be confined primarily to areas along the Western Alaska Range
as subsidence associated with the ridge shifts a little farther
east. A rapidly weakening Bering Sea front will reach the coast by
Sunday, providing a chance for stratiform rain over the Delta and
coastal Bristol Bay. The front looks to stall out and shear apart as
it runs into the ridge to the east, keeping the eastern half of
SW Alaska mostly dry.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
An unseasonably strong 965 mb low pressure system will continue
to track NE across the Western Bering tonight before steadily
weakening through the day tomorrow. A warm front out ahead of the
system will sweep east across the Aleutian Chain bringing a quick
shot of southerly storm force winds to the Western Aleutians this
evening accompanied by heavy rain from moisture laden air
advecting up from the sub-tropics. A cold front racing rapidly
behind the warm front will bring another shot of storm force winds
overnight to the Western Aleutians, aided by decent cold air
advection. The long fetch winds associated with this system will
lead to rapidly rising seas, with swells increasing to nearly 30
ft by tomorrow morning on the Pacific side of the Western
Aleutians.

The frontal system will rapidly weaken Saturday night as it runs
into a stubborn area of high pressure to the east, with the front
shearing out by the time it reaches the eastern Aleutians Sunday
morning. A more showery regime will then develop from west to east
in the wake of the front as the low weakens and drifts towards
northern Kamchatka.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
A broad mid level trough of low pressure across the southern
Bering spans across the Gulf for most of next week. A nearly zonal
jet stream remains just south of the Aleutian Chain to the Dixon
entrance. The jet will act as a conveyor belt to move waves of
energy from the Kamchatka Peninsula to the Gulf. A few easterly
waves will be sent across the southern mainland on the north side
of the low. This energy will be the focus for showers to develop
inland. With a thermal low over the interior sagging toward the
coast, a few thunderstorms will be possible during the late
afternoon and evening. Only minor changes were made overall using
a blend of the GFS/ECMWF operational models and the ensemble
solutions.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Storm Warning 177 178.
 Gale Warning 170 172>176 179 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SA
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JW
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KVP
LONG TERM...KH