Gale Warning 374, NWS Anchorage, AK

744 
FZAK52 PAFC 091157
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
357 AM AKDT Wed May 9 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-100115-
357 AM AKDT Wed May 9 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 979 mb low 165 nm west of St. Paul moves to 160 nm northeast of 
Adak at 983 mb by Thu morning and then to 275 nm southwest of Dutch 
Harbor at 997 mb by Fri morning. A 991 mb low 470 nm south of Dutch 
Harbor Wed morning moves to 165 nm southeast of Sand Point at 975 mb
by Thu morning and then to 25 nm south of Cape Newenham by Fri 
morning.

$$

PKZ150-100115-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
357 AM AKDT Wed May 9 2018

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt becoming E 45 kt after midnight. Seas 9
ft building to 14 ft after midnight. Rain.
.THU...E wind 50 kt becoming SE 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 13 ft
early building to 19 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ155-100115-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
357 AM AKDT Wed May 9 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt becoming NE 40 kt after midnight. Seas
13 ft. Rain.
.THU...N wind 40 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ160-100115-
Bristol Bay-
357 AM AKDT Wed May 9 2018

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 10 kt. Gusts to 20 kt in the morning. Seas 3 ft
subsiding.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...E wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...S wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ165-100115-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
357 AM AKDT Wed May 9 2018

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. From Port Moller E, E wind 15 kt
increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt except NE 40 kt from Port Moller E. Seas 11
ft. Rain and snow.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ170-100115-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
357 AM AKDT Wed May 9 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt becoming N 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ171-100115-
Unalaska Bay-
357 AM AKDT Wed May 9 2018

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-100115-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
357 AM AKDT Wed May 9 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ173-100115-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
357 AM AKDT Wed May 9 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ174-100115-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
357 AM AKDT Wed May 9 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ175-100115-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
357 AM AKDT Wed May 9 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ176-100115-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
357 AM AKDT Wed May 9 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ177-100115-
Adak to Kiska-
357 AM AKDT Wed May 9 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ178-100115-
Kiska to Attu-
357 AM AKDT Wed May 9 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ179-100115-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
357 AM AKDT Wed May 9 2018

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ180-100115-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
357 AM AKDT Wed May 9 2018

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.  Rain and snow.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ181-100115-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
357 AM AKDT Wed May 9 2018

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt becoming N 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ185-100115-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
357 AM AKDT Wed May 9 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

382 
FZAK52 PAFC 092331
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
331 PM AKDT Wed May 9 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-101300-
331 PM AKDT Wed May 9 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 981 mb low 215 nm North of Adak moves to 435 nm South of Dutch
Harbor at 1009 mb dissipating Fri afternoon. Its front decays 
over the Aleutians and Bering through Fri afternoon. A 977 mb low
435 nm South of Cold Bay hooks over Toksook Bay at 989 mb by Fri 
afternoon. Its front extends across the Alaska Peninsula into the 
North Pacific Fri afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-101300-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
331 PM AKDT Wed May 9 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt becoming E 45 kt after midnight. Seas 9
ft building to 16 ft after midnight. Rain.
.THU...E wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight.
Seas 20 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ155-101300-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
331 PM AKDT Wed May 9 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft building to 14 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.THU...NW wind 35 kt. From the Shumagin Islands E, N wind 40 kt
becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. From the Shumagin Islands E, SW wind
35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ160-101300-
Bristol Bay-
331 PM AKDT Wed May 9 2018

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ165-101300-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
331 PM AKDT Wed May 9 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt except NE 20 kt from Port Moller E. 
Seas 4 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt except NE 30 kt from Port Moller E. 
Seas 10 ft. Rain with snow.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ170-101300-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
331 PM AKDT Wed May 9 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ171-101300-
Unalaska Bay-
331 PM AKDT Wed May 9 2018

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft. Snow showers.
.THU...E wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-101300-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
331 PM AKDT Wed May 9 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ173-101300-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
331 PM AKDT Wed May 9 2018

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt becoming NE in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ174-101300-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
331 PM AKDT Wed May 9 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ175-101300-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
331 PM AKDT Wed May 9 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ176-101300-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
331 PM AKDT Wed May 9 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ177-101300-
Adak to Kiska-
331 PM AKDT Wed May 9 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ178-101300-
Kiska to Attu-
331 PM AKDT Wed May 9 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt becoming W 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ179-101300-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
331 PM AKDT Wed May 9 2018

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ180-101300-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
331 PM AKDT Wed May 9 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Snow.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ181-101300-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
331 PM AKDT Wed May 9 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt becoming N 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ185-101300-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
331 PM AKDT Wed May 9 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...NW 15 kt W
of Saint Matthew Island. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

789 
FZAK52 PAFC 101200
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
400 AM AKDT Thu May 10 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-110045-
400 AM AKDT Thu May 10 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 984 mb low located 230 nm northeast of Adak moves to 280 nm 
southwest of Dutch Harbor while weakening to 996 mb Friday morning, 
before dissipating later in the afternoon. A 972 mb low 165 nm 
southeast of Sand Point moves to 95 nm southwest of Cape Newenham at 
976 mb Friday morning, then to 20 nm northeast of Mekoryuk Sat 
morning. An associated front will extend south into the North Pacific
through Sat morning.

$$

PKZ150-110045-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
400 AM AKDT Thu May 10 2018

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind increasing to 50 kt. Seas building to 19 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ155-110045-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
400 AM AKDT Thu May 10 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 35 kt...except E wind 40 kt from the Shumagin 
Islands E in the early morning. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ160-110045-
Bristol Bay-
400 AM AKDT Thu May 10 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt early becoming NE wind 35 kt. Seas 3 ft early
building to 7 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ165-110045-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
400 AM AKDT Thu May 10 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt except NE 35 kt from Port Moller E. Seas 5 ft
early building to 10 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt except SW 35 kt from Port Moller E. Seas 10
ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ170-110045-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
400 AM AKDT Thu May 10 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ171-110045-
Unalaska Bay-
400 AM AKDT Thu May 10 2018

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt becoming W after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-110045-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
400 AM AKDT Thu May 10 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ173-110045-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
400 AM AKDT Thu May 10 2018

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt becoming NE in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ174-110045-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
400 AM AKDT Thu May 10 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ175-110045-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
400 AM AKDT Thu May 10 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ176-110045-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
400 AM AKDT Thu May 10 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ177-110045-
Adak to Kiska-
400 AM AKDT Thu May 10 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ178-110045-
Kiska to Attu-
400 AM AKDT Thu May 10 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ179-110045-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
400 AM AKDT Thu May 10 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt becoming N in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ180-110045-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
400 AM AKDT Thu May 10 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt early increasing to 30 kt. Seas building to 8
ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. Seas 10 ft.
Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ181-110045-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
400 AM AKDT Thu May 10 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt becoming N 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ185-110045-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
400 AM AKDT Thu May 10 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...NW 15 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

711 
FZAK52 PAFC 102315
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
315 PM AKDT Thu May 10 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-111230-
315 PM AKDT Thu May 10 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 972 mb low 30 nm Southwest of Chignik moves to 65 nm Northeast
of Savoonga at 988 mb by Sat afternoon. Its front extends over 
the Eastern Bering through Sat afternoon. A 988 mb low 45 nm
Southeast of Seguam Island moves into the North Pacific and 
dissipates Fri afternoon. A 990 mb North Pacific low stretches a 
front over the Western Aleutians for Sat afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-111230-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
315 PM AKDT Thu May 10 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ155-111230-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
315 PM AKDT Thu May 10 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ160-111230-
Bristol Bay-
315 PM AKDT Thu May 10 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ165-111230-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
315 PM AKDT Thu May 10 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt except SW 40 kt from Port Moller E. Seas
11 ft. Rain with snow.
.FRI...SW wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
11 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ170-111230-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
315 PM AKDT Thu May 10 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ171-111230-
Unalaska Bay-
315 PM AKDT Thu May 10 2018

.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-111230-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
315 PM AKDT Thu May 10 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ173-111230-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
315 PM AKDT Thu May 10 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ174-111230-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
315 PM AKDT Thu May 10 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ175-111230-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
315 PM AKDT Thu May 10 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ176-111230-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
315 PM AKDT Thu May 10 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ177-111230-
Adak to Kiska-
315 PM AKDT Thu May 10 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ178-111230-
Kiska to Attu-
315 PM AKDT Thu May 10 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt becoming S 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ179-111230-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
315 PM AKDT Thu May 10 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft building to 9 ft after
midnight.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ180-111230-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
315 PM AKDT Thu May 10 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ181-111230-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
315 PM AKDT Thu May 10 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ185-111230-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
315 PM AKDT Thu May 10 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...N 20 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
456 AM AKDT Tue May 8 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
Water Vapor satellite imagery shows abundant subtropical moisture
streaming across the eastern Alaska Peninsula to Bristol Bay.
A mature closed low over the southern Bering and a ridge over the
eastern mainland is acting as a conveyor belt to pull this
moisture up from the North Pacific. The jet stream which helped to
amplify the ridge over the the eastern mainland, is blocking the
Bering low from moving east and it is now stationary just north of
the Central Aleutians.

At the surface, rain showers are developing along the central Gulf
and moving north as a disturbance aloft rides north ahead of the
storm system. Across the Bering...the occluded surface low pushed
an associated front to coastal Bristol Bay which extends west to
the Pribilof Islands. Showers are wrapping around the back side of
the system to the western half of the Aleutians. Winds are
currently strongest, with gale force strength across the eastern
and western Bering.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are generally in good agreement through 48 hours, then
begin to diverge on the track of a north Pacific low which races
north to the Alaska Peninsula Wednesday night. Only minor changes
were needed through early Wednesday and then edits were made to
incorporate slightly faster progression of front that brings
another surge of moisture from the North Pacific through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions are expected through Wednesday morning with
mid level clouds increasing this afternoon. Variable winds should
have a northerly direction by mid morning as the flow shifts down
inlet between low pressure advancing from the west and a ridge
holding along the gulf.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
An upper level short-wave trough extending from the large vertically
stacked low over the Bering Sea will approach from the south
today through tonight, then lift northward across the western
Gulf Wednesday with the tail end just catching Southcentral
Wednesday night. Similarly, a cold front at the surface will be
slow to lift northward. This will result in a prolonged period of
moderate to heavy rain for Kodiak Island and the western Gulf,
with 2 to 3 inches of rain expected along the east side of Kodiak
island over the next 36 hours.

Rain will also spread northward to the southern to eastern Kenai
Peninsula today and the west side of Cook Inlet, with strong low
level southeast flow serving to enhance rain along east facing
slopes. This flow will keep areas west of the Kenai and Chugach
Mountains mostly dry, with perhaps an occasional sprinkle. As the
tail end of the upper trough comes through Wednesday night, rain
will spread further inland across the Susitna Valley as well as
to the rest of Prince William Sound.

There won't be much of a break for Kodiak as a rapidly strengthening
storm moves up from the Pacific Wednesday night into Thursday,
bringing another round of heavy rain and strong winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3...Tue through
Thu)...Several pieces of energy will rotate around the massive
low and reinvigorate the front that is currently draped across the
area. Gusty southeast to southerly winds will continue across the
area due to the pressure gradient associated with the front.
Winds will slowly diminish on Wed as the low center drifts further
west. Precipitation will be showery this morning, except along
southeast facing terrain where upslope will keep things more
persistent. However, as the next shortwave rounds the base of the
trough and a some weak instability builds in this afternoon expect
precipitation to become more widespread. The overall pattern
though will still continue to favor terrain, leaving places in the
lee of the mountains (Iliamna, King Salmon, Bethel, etc) seeing
only spotty showers and very limited QPF. Another shortwave comes
around Wed afternoon, making for a repeat to the pattern.

Temperatures should continue to warm today, even under abundant
cloud cover. This is due to warmer 850 mb temperatures and a
generally warmer airmass moving into the region. The winds coming
off the terrain should also add another degree or two as the air
warms adiabatically.

Another compact low will approach the southern side of the Alaska
Peninsula from the North Pacific Thu. This will bring another
round of warm air, gusty winds, and rain to Bristol Bay by Thu
afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3...Tue through
Thu)...The parent low will continue to dominate the area with
showers and gusty winds. The sustained gale-force winds will hang
on both east and west of the low this morning. But by this
afternoon, winds should diminish to only small-craft level.
Instability associated with the low still looks promising. So we
have opted to continue the isolated thunderstorms over a fair
amount of the marine areas through today.

Tonight into Wed, it will just be a matter of watching the low
slide back to the west as it fills. As the low weakens, showers
and winds should continue to diminish. By late Wed, another
deepening low will move into the picture from the North Pacific.
This system will slide from south to north towards the Eastern
Aleutians. It will push a gale-force warm front across the Alaska
Peninsula and into the Eastern Bering by Thu. Expect another
round of moderate rain and warm air with this system.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7: Thursday through Monday)...

Starting off the long-term forecast on Thursday, a dying front
along the north Gulf Coast will continue spreading heavy rains and
mountain snows to areas of western Prince William Sound and the
southern Kenai Peninsula coast, including Seward. While the
timing of an upper level wave is variable between the models,
there is a possibility that for a brief time that additional lift
may cause some precipitation activity to reach the lee of the
mountains into Anchorage and the Matanuska Valley. Meanwhile, an
area of low pressure will be approaching the southern Alaska
Peninsula Thursday morning, which in turn will make for windy,
rainy conditions from about Dutch Harbor eastward. The
precipitation will spread northward through the morning into
Bristol Bay, and reach the Kuskokwim Delta late in the day, as
the parent low turns westward. Interior Southwest Alaska shouldn't
see too much precipitation activity from this particular low
outside of some upslope showers along the Kuskokwim Mountains. On
Thursday night, a northward moving jet streak pushing into the
Gulf will cause a front and associated triple-point low to develop
over the western Gulf. This feature will ramp up the rainfall
rates across much of the north Gulf Coast as the night goes on.
The warm air mass over much of Southcentral Thursday will be
replaced by a somewhat cooler one, though the warmer air will
stick around longer in the Susitna Valley and Copper River Basin,
as the front should die out before reaching those areas.

On Friday, the front moves into the coast during the day, making
for continuous rain all along the north Gulf Coast for much of the
day, especially the morning. The front will reinvigorate the gap
winds through Turnagain Arm and the Knik River Valley once again.
There will be some potential once again Friday afternoon of
additional shower activity breaching over the mountains into
Anchorage and the Matanuska Valley. Meanwhile, the low over the
Bering largely stalls there, which will keep Southwest Alaska on
the wet side of things as well with persistent onshore flow,
though it should not be nearly as heavy or continuous as points
further east. A renewed push of cooler air with the front on
Friday will displace all of the warmer air eastward into Canada by
Friday night. Lingering shower activity will persist along the
north Gulf coast Friday night, but will not be nearly as heavy as
earlier in the day. Lowering freezing levels may allow some
accumulations through the passes as well. With the low lingering
just off the Bering coast, Southwest Alaska will also see
scattered to numerous showers continue through the overnight.

The instability brought on by the cooler air mass over the area
Saturday will keep showers going locally throughout southern
Alaska. The area should be between large-scale systems by then so
nothing organized is expected. A piece of upper level energy will
move over Kodiak Island Saturday evening, but a lack of any
temperature gradients in the area should preclude that feature
from generating much of its own precipitation. Sunday should be
the drier of the two weekend days with less lift due to building
upper ridging expected.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Flood Warning 155.
MARINE...Gale 130 131 139 174 175 176 177.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KH
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SEB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MO
LONG TERM...JW