Gale Warning 325, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

Apr 16, 2018, 2:53 PM AKDT (22:53 UTC)

Expired

Apr 17, 2018, 4:00 AM AKDT

In force

13 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

220 
FZAK51 PAFC 162253
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
253 PM AKDT Mon Apr 16 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-171200-
253 PM AKDT Mon Apr 16 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A front over the western Gulf will swing across the southern Gulf
and dissipate by Wed afternoon. A second front will enter the
western Gulf Tue afternoon and moves into the central Gulf by Wed
afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-171200-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
253 PM AKDT Mon Apr 16 2018

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas 9
ft. Rain.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ120-171200-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
253 PM AKDT Mon Apr 16 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ121-171200-
Resurrection Bay-
253 PM AKDT Mon Apr 16 2018

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt or less. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow.
.WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-171200-
Prince William Sound-
253 PM AKDT Mon Apr 16 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2
ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 6 ft after
midnight. Snow and rain.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-171200-
Port Valdez-
253 PM AKDT Mon Apr 16 2018

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt or less. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-171200-
Valdez Narrows-
253 PM AKDT Mon Apr 16 2018

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt. 
Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming N 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-171200-
Valdez Arm-
253 PM AKDT Mon Apr 16 2018

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming NE after midnight. Seas
2 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-171200-
Passage Canal-
253 PM AKDT Mon Apr 16 2018

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow and rain.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-171200-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
253 PM AKDT Mon Apr 16 2018

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft subsiding to 7 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ131-171200-
Barren Islands East-
253 PM AKDT Mon Apr 16 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ132-171200-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
253 PM AKDT Mon Apr 16 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ136-171200-
Chiniak Bay-
253 PM AKDT Mon Apr 16 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight.
Seas 4 ft building to 8 ft after midnight. Rain and snow.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ137-171200-
Marmot Bay-
253 PM AKDT Mon Apr 16 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight.
Seas 4 ft building to 9 ft after midnight. Rain with snow.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ138-171200-
Shelikof Strait-
253 PM AKDT Mon Apr 16 2018

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-171200-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
253 PM AKDT Mon Apr 16 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt becoming NE 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3
ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-171200-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
253 PM AKDT Mon Apr 16 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ141-171200-
Kachemak Bay-
253 PM AKDT Mon Apr 16 2018

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 20 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Apr 16, 5:37 AM AKDT, 9 hours 16 minutes earlier.

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
537 AM AKDT Mon Apr 16 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The pattern continues to evolve slowly. The front has finally made
its way across the Aleutians and is now stalling along the Alaskan
and Aleutian Ranges. This will serve as the focal point for much
of the weather to start the week. Light rain continues to fall
across much of SW AK, mixing with some snow over colder inland
areas (Koliganek, New Stuyahok, etc). Over the northern Gulf of
AK, fog and low stratus have developed once again and made their
way into Kodiak City. However, with the front approaching, this
should help dissipate that marine layer relatively soon. The other
key weather maker across the state is a strengthening 970 mb low
approaching the Western Aleutians. ASCAT passes overnight confirm
some storm-force winds associated with this feature. This low is
supported by a 160kt 300mb (20K ft) jet that will keep it tracking
quickly from west to east through the Aleutian Chain.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are in very good agreement which is lending to moderate to
high forecast confidence through the middle of the week. By the
end of the week, most of the models are showing the closed Arctic
High drifting to the west and allowing some upper level energy and
some much colder air to start to dive south along the ALCAN
border. While this is still a ways off, it bears watching because
of the abrupt change it could make in the sensible weather.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions will persist as some mid clouds work their
way in. A light southeast wind off the Turnagain Arm should move
in this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
A front stretching through the Western Gulf will continue to bring
rain to the Kodiak Island and extreme Southern Kenai regions
today, however with continued ridging over the South Mainland this
is not expected to reach much further to the north. Even the mid-
high level cloudcover is struggling to reach into the Anchorage
Bowl, which should provide most areas north of the Kenai as
another sunny day today with little further northward progression
expected. This pattern will generally hold into Tuesday morning
when an approaching low from the Bering Sea will help the shift
Mainland ridging to the north. This system will cause the remnants
of the Western Gulf front to move northward and strengthen, which
is now expected to bring widespread rain/snow and a gale force
barrier jet for the North Gulf Coast beginning late Tuesday night
into Wednesday morning. Snow accumulations should be fairly minor
from this system, with only a few inches of wet accumulations
expected over the high elevations of the Eastern Kenai including
Turnagain Pass. This front will bring cloudy skies back into
Southcentral but otherwise conditions will remain dry from strong
downsloping and gusty winds through Turnagain arm.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
(Today through Wednesday)

The much-advertised precipitation event is well underway for the
western half of the region, with the mosaic loop showing a gradual
eastward progression. Thus far, most locations showing rain as
the predominant form, with just a few snow observations showing up
from Cape Newenham north along the coast, as west northwesterly
flow has started to bring in some weak cold advection. This
precipitation is occurring along a surface trough (what's left of
yesterday's front), and this looks to continue through Wednesday
as both the trough gets reinforced in an inverted form from a
developing Kodiak low Tuesday morning, and additionally from a
front moving in from the Bering by Tuesday night. Thus, at least
scattered precipitation looks to continue for central sections,
becoming more isolated towards the Alaska Range, and briefly
towards the coast. Patchy fog was expanded westward towards the
coast for this morning as well, given the moist onshore flow and
light winds continuing with precipitation in the area.

Speaking of that next front, although a fairly widespread
precipitation event is anticipated, this low is tracking further
south than its predecessor. As a result, the front stretches out
in more of an southeast to northwest fashion, roughly along a
Goodnews Bay through Iliamna line. This allows the better surface
convergence to be focused further south than the current system,
where precipitation intensity and coverage will be higher.
However, most areas should see at least some light precipitation
at some point.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...
(Today through Wednesday)

The next in a series of storms is already moving into the western
Bering/Aleutians, with a low located west of the tip of the
chain. This low will move towards the southern Pribilof Islands by
Tuesday night, sending a surface front eastward as it does so.
Strong wind gusts and widespread precipitation will accompany the
front, with precipitation becoming more showery behind it and
closer to the low pressure center. Winds look to be high end gales
to low end storm force ahead of the front and along the south
side of the low behind it, where cold and dry advection will aid
in the downward momentum transfer process. This low will meander
across the region through Wednesday while slowly weakening,
providing more opportunities for continued shower development.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Wednesday through Sunday)...

There is good model agreement that the 2nd half of this coming
week will feature a continuation of a deep longwave trough over
the eastern Bering Sea, with a series of low pressure systems
moving to near the AKPEN and stalling. This will result in fairly
cloudy conditions across much of southern Alaska, with multiple
rounds of steady rain/snow affecting the Gulf Coastal areas. The
interior areas look safely downsloped throughout most or all of
these storms, however, so the forecast is cloudy but dry from
Kenai to Anchorage and the Mat-Su.

This weather pattern will also bring unsettled weather to
southwest Alaska and the Bering Sea. No specifically strong storms
are expected during this timeframe, but periods of onshore flow
across the mainland will keep conditions cloudy and fairly wet
(especially for this time of year).

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Storm 176 177
         Gale 130 155 160 165 170-176 178-181 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MSO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DEK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PD
LONG TERM...AD

Gale Warnings in Alaska, 2018Every gale warning in 2018

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.