Gale Warning 315, NWS Anchorage, AK

329 
FZAK51 PAFC 112356
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
356 PM AKDT Wed Apr 11 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-121300-
356 PM AKDT Wed Apr 11 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 987 mb low 40 nm southeast of Kodiak City will move near 56N 
155W at 988 mb Thu afternoon then it will move to 120 nm southeast
of Chignik at 994 mb Fri afternoon. A Pacific low will move into 
the southeastern Gulf Fri morning. 

$$

PKZ119-121300-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
356 PM AKDT Wed Apr 11 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ120-121300-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
356 PM AKDT Wed Apr 11 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ121-121300-
Resurrection Bay-
356 PM AKDT Wed Apr 11 2018

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-121300-
Prince William Sound-
356 PM AKDT Wed Apr 11 2018

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NW wind 10 kt becoming E 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft
building to 4 ft in the afternoon.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-121300-
Port Valdez-
356 PM AKDT Wed Apr 11 2018

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-121300-
Valdez Narrows-
356 PM AKDT Wed Apr 11 2018

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-121300-
Valdez Arm-
356 PM AKDT Wed Apr 11 2018

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 15 kt after 
midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-121300-
Passage Canal-
356 PM AKDT Wed Apr 11 2018

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 15 kt becoming Variable wind 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-121300-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
356 PM AKDT Wed Apr 11 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ131-121300-
Barren Islands East-
356 PM AKDT Wed Apr 11 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft subsiding to 14 ft after
midnight.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ132-121300-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
356 PM AKDT Wed Apr 11 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SE 20 kt after midnight. N
of Dangerous Cape, SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. N of Dangerous Cape, 
Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ136-121300-
Chiniak Bay-
356 PM AKDT Wed Apr 11 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind increasing to 25 kt in the evening then decreasing
to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-121300-
Marmot Bay-
356 PM AKDT Wed Apr 11 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind increasing to 25 kt in the evening then decreasing
to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-121300-
Shelikof Strait-
356 PM AKDT Wed Apr 11 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ139-121300-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
356 PM AKDT Wed Apr 11 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft subsiding to 6 ft after midnight.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-121300-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
356 PM AKDT Wed Apr 11 2018

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-121300-
Kachemak Bay-
356 PM AKDT Wed Apr 11 2018

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt with gusts to 30 kt in the evening becoming 
variable less than 10 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
522 PM AKDT Tue Apr 10 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The gale force low that moved through the Gulf is now located just
to the south of Kodiak Island and is slowly beginning to fill.
This low and its associated front brought gale force winds to
much of the Gulf this morning, as well as widespread rainfall
totals surpassing 1 inch. The front from this low has stalled out
over the North Gulf Coast, bringing widespread rain, which has
been heaviest in the Portage Valley where over 2 inches of rain
has already been measured in the past 24 hours. Well east of the
weakening Gulf low, another developing low is present just south
of the Panhandle, which is expected to quickly develop to gale
force as it slings westward into the Central Gulf late tonight. To
the north, the persist ridge of high pressure over the interior
continues to protect most of interior Southcentral from the
widespread rainfall. This ridge will slide back southward into the
area later this week once low development in the Gulf begins to
end.

Over the Eastern Bering, the remnants of the front that moved
through the area yesterday has merged with the Gulf low and
created a deformation band stretching from the AKpen into the
Eastern Bering. This is generally bringing rain to much of that
area, though wet snow is mixing in to the west of Cold Bay where
cold air advection is also creating gusty northwesterly winds.
Just to the west over the Western-Central Bering the weather is
generally quieter but still gusty from a weakening gale force low
that is beginning to exit the Northern Bering. This is being
quickly replaced by yet another gale force low from the North
Pacific that will skirt the Western Aleutians late tonight.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Model agreement has improved since last night with both the track
and intensity of the developing low currently near the Panhandle
that will track into the Gulf this evening. As a result forecast
confidence is beginning to improve for both the wind and precip
forecast from this system, especially along the Gulf Coast where a
majority of the impacts are expected. Afterwards good agreement
and forecast confidence continues into Thursday as the interior
ridge briefly moves back into the South Mainland, but this quickly
begins to break down by the end of the week. This breakdown
occurs as the models continue to struggle with how deep to dig (or
even in the existence of) a shortwave from an arctic trough that
will develop late this week into the upcoming weekend. In general
the models have trended slightly less aggressive with this trough,
so the forecast will continue to favor the EC and GEM which have
been the most consistent in the less aggressive solution.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions with light and variable winds will continue
into Wednesday morning. Beginning Wednesday morning there is a
chance that the incoming Gulf low will drop ceilings to around
5000 ft, however since this is a low probability for now on the
very edge of the low this layer was kept as a SCT deck for now.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Strong winds and heavy rain will taper off through the night over
the Western Gulf of Alaska and Kodiak Island as a fairly potent
surface low continues to track west then south of Kodiak Island,
before finally being ejected back east into the North Pacific.

For the rest of the forecast period, a broad upper level trough
over the Gulf and North Pacific will continue to dominate the
weather through the forecast period bringing widespread cloud
cover to most of the southern mainland and rain to the coastal
areas. An embedded shortwave trough will move north along the AK
Panhandle then north and west along the Northern Gulf Coast
tomorrow morning, quickly strengthening into a surface low. This
will bring another shot of gale force winds to the Northern Gulf
coast west towards Kodiak. Rain will again spread across most of
the coastal region tomorrow with heaviest amounts along the
Eastern Kenai Peninsula and Kodiak Island, with downsloping
keeping the Western Kenai, Anchorage, and Mat-Su Valleys dry and
warm. On Thursday, the flow over the Gulf becomes more zonal (East
to West) with overall lighter winds, though still onshore along
the coast leading to continued chances of rain through the end of
the week while more inland areas remain dry.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Broad southeast flow aloft will continue to be the dominant
weather regime for the next few days as a series of shortwaves
moves across the Alaska Range and into Southwest. Downsloping and
a weak moisture stream will generally keep precipitation light
and sporadic, and will generally favor the Kuskokwim Delta and
Bristol Bay Coast. Some patchy fog will be possible tonight along
the Kuskokwim Delta as the pressure gradient continues to weaken.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

A deformation zone will remain in place over the Eastern
Aleutians, bringing continued rain (possibly mixed with periodic
wet snow. A low over the North Pacific will skirt the Western and
Central Aleutians, bringing a switch to easterly then northerly
low end gale force winds, but this low will quickly move out by
Wed afternoon with broad cyclonic flow then developing over the
Bering Sea through Thursday before a gale force low forms over the
Western Bering Sea Thursday night and Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
After a brief break in the active weather for the Southern
Mainland as interior ridging moves back over the area on
Thursday, the focus in the long term forecast and questions
continue to surround and arctic trough centered over the Beaufort
Sea and how far south it will dig. Yesterday the GFS had been
very consistent in both the operational and ensemble mean in
digging a much deeper shortwave trough through the interior and
into Southcentral. Since then it has began to back off on this
much more aggressive solution, much more in line with the EC and
GEM which have been very consistent in keeping the bulk of the
energy and (more importantly) cold air well north of the area in
the Eastern Interior and the Yukon. As a result confidence is
beginning to improve that temperatures will stay generally near
normal with weak ridging in the area and little in the way of
significant precipitation chances for much of the South Mainland.

By late this weekend, model agreement is good that a broad trough
will setup over the Bering once again with ridging over the
mainland. There is reasonable agreement initially that this
ridging will keep much of the Mainland protected from activity
from the Bering through Monday, but possibility not much longer
into the week as the Bering trough continues to deepen. This will
be something that will need to continue to be monitored as the
models are typically too fast to break down Mainland riding, If
this trend continues active weather would begin to shift from the
Bering into the South Mainland for the remainder of next week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gales 119 120 131 150 172 351.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DEK
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...KVP
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JA
LONG TERM...JR