Gale Warning 313, NWS Anchorage, AK

856 
FZAK52 PAFC 101159
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
359 AM AKDT Tue Apr 10 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-110115-
359 AM AKDT Tue Apr 10 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 980 mb low 260 nm northeast of Shemya will dissipate by Wed 
morning. A second 978 mb low 280 nm southeast of Shemya Wed 
morning will move to 380 nm south of Dutch Harbor at 996 mb by Thu
morning. A third 969 mb low 135 nm southeast of Akhiok moves to 
185 nm southwest of Akhiok at 983 mb by Wed morning. A fourth 982
mb low 140 nm southeast of Middleton Island Wed morning moves to 
45 nm northwest of Port Heiden at 988 mb by Thu morning.


$$

PKZ150-110115-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
359 AM AKDT Tue Apr 10 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt except NE 45 kt out of Shelikof Strait. 
Seas 15 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas 15 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ155-110115-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
359 AM AKDT Tue Apr 10 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 40 kt except N 30 kt from the Shumagin Islands E.
Seas 18 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt except NW 30 kt from the Shumagin Islands
E. Seas 19 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. From
the Shumagin Islands E, NW wind 20 kt in the morning becoming 
variable 10 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ160-110115-
Bristol Bay-
359 AM AKDT Tue Apr 10 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 7 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ165-110115-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
359 AM AKDT Tue Apr 10 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 35 kt except N 25 kt from Port Moller E. Seas
15 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. From Port Moller E, N wind 25 kt
diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 15 ft. Rain and snow 
showers.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt becoming variable 10 kt in the afternoon, 
From Port Moller E, variable wind 10 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ170-110115-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
359 AM AKDT Tue Apr 10 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 16
ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ171-110115-
Unalaska Bay-
359 AM AKDT Tue Apr 10 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt late. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt becoming variable 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 
5 ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-110115-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
359 AM AKDT Tue Apr 10 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt late. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt. Seas
11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ173-110115-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
359 AM AKDT Tue Apr 10 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt becoming variable 10 kt after midnight. Seas
17 ft.
.WED...E wind increasing to 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ174-110115-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
359 AM AKDT Tue Apr 10 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt becoming S 10 kt after midnight. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt becoming E 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain showers and 
snow showers.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ175-110115-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
359 AM AKDT Tue Apr 10 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt becoming SE after midnight. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ176-110115-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
359 AM AKDT Tue Apr 10 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 35 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt becoming SE 30 kt after midnight. Seas
15 ft subsiding to 10 ft after midnight. Rain and snow.
.WED...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain and snow.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ177-110115-
Adak to Kiska-
359 AM AKDT Tue Apr 10 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 40 kt becoming SW 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 24
ft subsiding to 18 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...NE wind 35 kt. Bering side, seas 10 ft. Pacific side, seas
13 ft building to 18 ft in the afternoon.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ178-110115-
Kiska to Attu-
359 AM AKDT Tue Apr 10 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 35 kt becoming SW 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 21
ft subsiding to 14 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...S wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ179-110115-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
359 AM AKDT Tue Apr 10 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt becoming W 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ180-110115-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
359 AM AKDT Tue Apr 10 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft. Patchy
freezing fog.
.WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.

$$

PKZ181-110115-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
359 AM AKDT Tue Apr 10 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.

$$

PKZ185-110115-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
359 AM AKDT Tue Apr 10 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

972 
FZAK52 PAFC 102356
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
356 PM AKDT Tue Apr 10 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-111315-
356 PM AKDT Tue Apr 10 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 989 mb low 340 nm West of St Matthew Island dissipates Wed 
afternoon. Its front extends across the Bering and Alaska 
Peninsula through Thu afternoon. A 981 mb low 370 nm South of Attu 
moves to 500 nm South of Dutch Harbor at 995 mb Thu morning. A 
996 mb Kamchatka low pushes its front toward the Western Aleutians
by Thu afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-111315-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
356 PM AKDT Tue Apr 10 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts
to 40 kt out of Shelikof Strait in the evening. Seas 14 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming S after midnight. Seas 9 ft.
Rain.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ155-111315-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
356 PM AKDT Tue Apr 10 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. From
the Shumagin Islands E, NW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. From
the Shumagin Islands E, NW wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ160-111315-
Bristol Bay-
356 PM AKDT Tue Apr 10 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt becoming N 15 kt after midnight. Seas 6
ft.
.WED...N wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4
ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ165-111315-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
356 PM AKDT Tue Apr 10 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt except N 20 kt from Port Moller E. Seas
14 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt except variable 10 kt from Port Moller E.
Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ170-111315-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
356 PM AKDT Tue Apr 10 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas
15 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ171-111315-
Unalaska Bay-
356 PM AKDT Tue Apr 10 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 4 
ft subsiding to 2 ft.
.WED...NW wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Snow showers and rain
showers.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-111315-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
356 PM AKDT Tue Apr 10 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 17
ft subsiding to 12 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt. Seas
11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 kt becoming NW 25 kt after midnight. Seas
9 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ173-111315-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
356 PM AKDT Tue Apr 10 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt after midnight. Seas
16 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ174-111315-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
356 PM AKDT Tue Apr 10 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt becoming S 15 kt after midnight. Seas 18
ft subsiding to 13 ft after midnight.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft building to 17 ft after
midnight.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ175-111315-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
356 PM AKDT Tue Apr 10 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt becoming SE after midnight. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ176-111315-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
356 PM AKDT Tue Apr 10 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt becoming SE 30 kt after midnight. Seas
15 ft.
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ177-111315-
Adak to Kiska-
356 PM AKDT Tue Apr 10 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming E 30 kt after midnight. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...NE wind 30 kt. Bering side, seas 9 ft. Pacific side, seas
13 ft building to 18 ft in the afternoon.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft Bering side...17 ft Pacific
side.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...S wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ178-111315-
Kiska to Attu-
356 PM AKDT Tue Apr 10 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ179-111315-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
356 PM AKDT Tue Apr 10 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ180-111315-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
356 PM AKDT Tue Apr 10 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
in ice free waters 8 ft. Patchy freezing fog.
.WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.

$$

PKZ181-111315-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
356 PM AKDT Tue Apr 10 2018

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.

$$

PKZ185-111315-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
356 PM AKDT Tue Apr 10 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
450 AM AKDT Mon Apr 9 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
Looking at the latest satellite image, there is an area of high
pressure over the interior with a frontal boundary moving across
the Aleutians and a second area of low pressure over the Gulf Of
Alaska. There is a shortwave that has been ejected from the Gulf
low and is impacting Prince William Sound and portions of
Southcentral. The radar at Middleton Island (PAIH) has detected
multiple bands of rain from Chenega to Cordova and and area of
showers south of Middleton Island. Meanwhile the radar at Kenai
(PAHG) has pinged into some light showers over the Cook Inlet also
associated with the shortwave. Over the Bering Sea, the latest
scatterometer winds has detected a broad area of gale and storm
force winds near the Western Aleutians.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The models are in sync with the synoptic features through
Thursday which is reflected at both the surface and at 500 MB.
QPF-wise...the precip shields on the GFS, NAM and ECMWF are in
excellent agreement pushing the cold front through the Aleutians
with some minor differences in the post frontal QPF over the
Bering. The same 3 models depict wrap around moisture getting
pulled into portions of Prince William Sound and the portions of
the Kenai. There is an inverted surface trough extending from the
Gulf Of Alaska low towards Kodiak that the models ping into but
the timing of the QPF is varied. But overall, there is good
confidence with Days One and Two of this forecast package. That
optimism will continue into Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light northerly winds are expected to
prevail through Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A weak upper level short-wave along the Gulf coast early this
morning will track inland today. Expect all of the precip to
remain along the coast with just some clouds and perhaps a few
sprinkles over inland areas. Temperatures remain above freezing
across most of Prince William Sound and the Kenai Peninsula, so
precipitation will be mainly in the form of rain.

Meanwhile, cyclogenesis is ongoing at the head of a strong upper
level jet streak rounding a large upper level low over the
northeast Pacific. This new low is headed west- northwest toward
the southern Gulf, with a leading warm front tracking west across
the Gulf toward Kodiak Island. This low will continue to deepen
today and tonight, bottoming out somewhere around 965 mb. Have
strengthened winds in the latest forecast, with widespread gales
across the Gulf and Kodiak Island waters. Kodiak Island will also
see the bulk of rain out of this system with 2 inches or more
likely along the east side of the island.

One of the big questions the last couple days is how far north the
occluded front will make it since the low center will remain south
of Kodiak Island, blocked from moving north by strong ridging out
ahead of it. It now looks like this front will make it to the
northern Gulf on Tuesday, with most of the rain over western
Prince William Sound/eastern Kenai Peninsula. Low level flow will
be easterly, so expect the heaviest rainfall to hang up in the
mountains right along the coast, with lighter precip over inland
areas of the Kenai Peninsula - including the Seward Highway
corridor. The easterly flow means precip will be less likely over
eastern Prince William Sound. The remnants of the front will drop
back southward on Tuesday night as the low drops back into the
northeast Pacific.

Aside from some periods of clouds, inland portions of Southcentral
will remain dry with above normal temperatures for the next couple
days.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2: Monday and
Tuesday)...

An area of fog that briefly moved into the Bethel area earlier
tonight is now pushing off to the north, encompassing much of the
area west of Bethel this morning. Elsewhere in Southwest Alaska,
higher stratus have moved in and have prevented any fog formation
east of the Kuskokwim Mountains. As winds turn more easterly
today, gap winds will become more of an issue in those localized
areas. Warmer air being transported northwestward should allow
high temperatures to warm a good 5 degrees if not more than
yesterday, bringing many parts of Southwest Alaska into the 40s,
despite the mostly cloudy skies. A wave of moisture will cross the
Aleutian Range during the afternoon, causing valley rain and
mountain snows across coastal Bristol Bay, spreading up the coast
into the Kuskokwim Delta tonight. Most inland valley locations
will not see much, if any precipitation out of this as most of the
forcing stays offshore. The stalled out front will weaken as it
slowly drifts away from the coast on Tuesday. Thus, interior
locations, particularly in the Kuskokwim Valley, should see a good
amount of sun on Tuesday, which will help temperatures warm even
further.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2: Monday
and Tuesday)...

The primary weather maker across the Bering this morning is a
sprawling area of low pressure covering well over half the Bering.
It is centered a couple hundred miles north of Shemya and will not
be moving much over the next couple days. Thus, the western and
central Aleutians, including Shemya and to a lesser extent Adak
and Atka, will see a prolonged period of strong westerly winds,
reaching to storm force in some areas Monday. Its associated
occluded front is eastward moving through the Pribilofs and
eastern Aleutians this morning. It will stall later today off the
coast of mainland Alaska as a wave of moisture moves north along
the front. The front thus becomes a "railroad track" of sorts.
Some of the source for the moisture traveling up the front is
another low tracking south of Kodiak Island today that will bring
gale force winds along the Pacific side of the Alaska Peninsula.
The front weakens more substantially late Tuesday into Tuesday
night as upper level ridging builds in. Another low brushes just
south of the Aleutians Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
On Tuesday night, a strengthening low south of the western
Aleutians will track east centered along 48N. After becoming
vertically stacked south of the central Aleutians on Wednesday,
the low will turn more to the east-southeast Wednesday night and
Thursday before getting pulled into and merged with the broad
upper level low stretched over and to the south of the Gulf
Thursday night and Friday. A large upper level low/trough over
the Kamchatka Peninsula on Friday will track east over the western
Aleutians, Bering and North Pacific Friday night and Saturday,
while a rapidly strengthening North Pacific surface low out ahead
of it lifts north over the western Aleutians and then into the
western Bering.

In response to the deepening western low, upper level ridging
will build over the central Aleutians and Bering on Friday and
then continue amplify as it shifts east over the eastern Bering
and Alaska Peninsula Saturday to become centered over western
Alaska Saturday Night and Sunday. As compared with yesterday's
runs, models are trending towards keeping the axis of the upper
level ridge centered further to the west through the weekend
(centered over western Alaska as opposed to bringing it east to be
centered over all of Mainland Alaska), although significant
uncertainty remains. The challenges for the models include the
handling the cold upper low over the Arctic Ocean and far northern
Canada and the Aleutian/Bering low.

Model runs favoring digging an arctic trough south through
eastern Alaska and northwestern Canada would tend keep the upper
ridge of a higher amplitude and further west, putting Mainland
Alaska under northerly flow aloft and making very dry north to
northeasterly outflow winds a potential concern for southern
Alaska in the Sunday and Monday time period. If the westerly low
turns out to be more dominant and progressive, this would tend to
push the ridge further east bringing a couple of days of warmer
weather to mainland Alaska for the weekend, but opening the
Aleutians, Bering and eventually Southwestern Alaska to more
zonal westerly flow and a more active storm track for the first
half of next week. If both troughs remain equally influential and
end up phasing, the third potential synoptic outcome would be the
suppression of the upper level ridge with temperature holding
closer to or just above climatological normals and a gradual shift
to weaker zonal flow with the jet stream and storm track
remaining well south of the area and aimed at the Pacific
Northwest next week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale 352 351 119 120 130 131 132 136 137 138 139 411 413
 150 155 175 176 177. Storm 178.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PJS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SEB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JW
LONG TERM...JR