Gale Warning 304, NWS Anchorage, AK

189 
FZAK51 PAFC 041501 AAA
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast...UPDATED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
701 AM AKDT Wed Apr 4 2018

Updated 125 127 and 128

Coastal waters forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-050330-
701 AM AKDT Wed Apr 4 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A weak trough over Kodiak Island moves inland this morning. A
front enters the southern Gulf and moves to the northern Gulf Thu
night. The associated 980 mb low 580 nm southwest of Hydaburg
tonight moves 340 nm southwest of Hydaburg at 981 mb Thu night.

$$

PKZ119-050330-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
701 AM AKDT Wed Apr 4 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Near the coast...E wind 35 kt becoming SE
25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ120-050330-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
701 AM AKDT Wed Apr 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft. 
Freezing spray. Snow showers. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Snow showers. 
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ121-050330-
Resurrection Bay-
701 AM AKDT Wed Apr 4 2018

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt becoming S 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Freezing spray in the morning. Widespread snow showers. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread snow showers. 
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread snow
showers. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ125-050330-
Prince William Sound-
701 AM AKDT Wed Apr 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Gusts to 40 kt near Hinchinbrook Entrance
in the morning. Seas 7 ft. Widespread snow showers.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Widespread snow showers. 
.THU...NE wind 20 kt becoming N 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-050330-
Port Valdez-
701 AM AKDT Wed Apr 4 2018

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. Widespread snow
showers. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow showers. 
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-050330-
Valdez Narrows-
701 AM AKDT Wed Apr 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Widespread snow showers.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Widespread snow showers. 
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-050330-
Valdez Arm-
701 AM AKDT Wed Apr 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 4 ft. Widespread snow showers. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft. Widespread snow showers. 
.THU...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-050330-
Passage Canal-
701 AM AKDT Wed Apr 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Widespread snow showers. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Widespread snow showers. 
.THU...E wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft. Snow showers. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-050330-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
701 AM AKDT Wed Apr 4 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray. Snow
showers. 
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ131-050330-
Barren Islands East-
701 AM AKDT Wed Apr 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ132-050330-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
701 AM AKDT Wed Apr 4 2018

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ136-050330-
Chiniak Bay-
701 AM AKDT Wed Apr 4 2018

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SE 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow showers and rain
showers. 
.THU...SE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-050330-
Marmot Bay-
701 AM AKDT Wed Apr 4 2018

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-050330-
Shelikof Strait-
701 AM AKDT Wed Apr 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ139-050330-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
701 AM AKDT Wed Apr 4 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. Widespread
snow showers. 
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-050330-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
701 AM AKDT Wed Apr 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray. Widespread snow
showers. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft after
midnight. Widespread snow showers. 
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-050330-
Kachemak Bay-
701 AM AKDT Wed Apr 4 2018

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread snow showers. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt becoming SE 15 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft. Snow showers. 
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

268 
FZAK51 PAFC 042327
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
327 PM AKDT Wed Apr 4 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-051245-
327 PM AKDT Wed Apr 4 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A weak trough over the western Gulf and Cook Inlet moves inland 
tonight. A front enters the southern Gulf Thu afternoon and moves 
to the central Gulf by Fri afternoon. The associated Pacific low 
moves to 480 nm south of Yakutat at 981 mb Fri afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-051245-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
327 PM AKDT Wed Apr 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ120-051245-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
327 PM AKDT Wed Apr 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Snow showers.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ121-051245-
Resurrection Bay-
327 PM AKDT Wed Apr 4 2018

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt in the evening becoming S. Seas 2 ft.
Widespread snow showers.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow showers.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ125-051245-
Prince William Sound-
327 PM AKDT Wed Apr 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Widespread snow showers.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt becoming N 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-051245-
Port Valdez-
327 PM AKDT Wed Apr 4 2018

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow showers.
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-051245-
Valdez Narrows-
327 PM AKDT Wed Apr 4 2018

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Widespread snow showers.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-051245-
Valdez Arm-
327 PM AKDT Wed Apr 4 2018

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft. Widespread snow showers.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-051245-
Passage Canal-
327 PM AKDT Wed Apr 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Widespread snow showers.
.THU...E wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 2 ft. Snow showers.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-051245-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
327 PM AKDT Wed Apr 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray W of Augustine
Island. Snow showers.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Freezing spray W of Augustine Island in the 
morning. Seas 8 ft. Snow showers.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ131-051245-
Barren Islands East-
327 PM AKDT Wed Apr 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ132-051245-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
327 PM AKDT Wed Apr 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ136-051245-
Chiniak Bay-
327 PM AKDT Wed Apr 4 2018

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow showers and rain showers.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ137-051245-
Marmot Bay-
327 PM AKDT Wed Apr 4 2018

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ138-051245-
Shelikof Strait-
327 PM AKDT Wed Apr 4 2018

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-051245-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
327 PM AKDT Wed Apr 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. Widespread
snow showers.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Freezing spray in the morning. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-051245-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
327 PM AKDT Wed Apr 4 2018

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Widespread snow showers.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-051245-
Kachemak Bay-
327 PM AKDT Wed Apr 4 2018

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt becoming SE 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas 2 ft. Snow showers.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
503 PM AKDT Tue Apr 3 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A low pressure system has begun to spin up in the Northern Gulf
which can be seen in satellite imagery. The coordinating upper
level trough that was once oriented over the panhandle has
retrograded over Southcentral Alaska. While clear skies and dry
conditions have dominated most of mainland Alaska, this system
will bring wetter conditions into the area. The tight pressure
gradient along the North Gulf Coast continues to bring gusty
conditions through Valdez and the Matanuska Valley while the winds
that were observed in Whittier have slowed. As the cooler air
moves in and winds decrease, areas around the Kenai Peninsula are
becoming increasingly more unstable.

The front over the Central Aleutians has begun to dissipate and
winds have started decreasing. The associated low located south
of the Aleutians, is weakening as it moves westward. A shortwave
trough on the backside of the low over Southcentral Alaska is
making its way down toward the Kuskokwim Delta Coast with cooler
air tagging along behind it.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The primary challenge in the short-term from the models continues
to be in determining chances of snowfall over the Anchorage Bowl
from the easterly wave on Wednesday. The NAM in particular has had
the worst recent run-to-run consistency in the last 3 runs,
fluctuating between 0 to more than 3 inches of snow from the event
and was treated as an outlier. Otherwise, the general trend in
the models has been to bring very light snowfall into the Anchorage
Bowl and possibly western Matanuska Valley with reasonable
consistency. Further east over Western Prince William Sound model
agreement is significantly better with widespread snow accumulations
of a foot or more, especially from Whittier to Turnagain Pass.
Another change has occurred over Bristol Bay due to the slightly
further west track of the upper level low as it skirts the
Southern Mainland. As a result confidence is increasing in the
chances for accumulating snow, especially for northern and
eastern portions of the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and north-northeast winds of 10 kt or less
will continue into Wednesday. The primary forecast challenge for
the terminal will be determining how low ceilings will fall as
snow showers develop over the area Wednesday afternoon-evening.
At this point it appears that the most significant showers should
develop along higher elevations and move northward towards the
terminal, likely producing MVFR or possibly even brief periods of
IFR snow showers, with breaks of VFR conditions expected between
showers.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
As the upper level low tracks west across the southern mainland
the outflow winds around Prince William Sound will diminish
through Wednesday. However, winds around Cook Inlet and areas
north will stay northerly through Wednesday before diminishing
Thursday morning.

Upper level flow will also turn more southerly as the upper level
low moves through pumping moisture back over Southcentral Alaska.
Additionally, an upper level disturbance that dropped into the
western Gulf has spun up a low that will aid in bringing moisture
to the area. With an unstable atmosphere this will result in a
showery pattern that will bring snow showers to the Kenai
Peninsula Wednesday into early Thursday. Heaviest amounts will be
over western Prince William Sound due to the combination of
instability and upslope flow. Amounts may vary greatly across
small distances due to the potential banding of showers. Wednesday
afternoon there is a chance some of these showers will make it
over to the Anchorage area, but with an abundance of dry air in
place it will be difficult see widespread snow amounts over a
inch. That being said, there is high uncertainty over Anchorage as
localized showers could produce a couple inches, but this should
not be widespread.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A pattern change is imminent across Southwest AK as the dominant
Bering ridge is displaced by the cold upper low approaching from
the east. This will bring a cooling trend along with increasing
clouds to the region over the next 24 hours as the low center
moves over the Kuskokwim Delta. Cold advection aloft associated
with the low will help to steepen mid level lapse rates and
destabilize the atmosphere, touching off snow shower development
from east to west on Wednesday. Shower activity looks to increase
Wednesday night into Thursday night and should be most prevalent
from eastern portions of Greater Bristol Bay into the Lower
Kuskokwim Valley as the low moves offshore and these areas get
back into southwest flow aloft, allowing more moisture to advect
into the area. Guidance is hinting at a narrow snow band setting
up along a corridor from roughly King Salmon to Sleetmute on
Thursday as the dynamic setup becomes more favorable. This raises
the possibility for more significant accumulation somewhere
within this region by mid to late week, however confidence in
specific details remains on the low side at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
Scattered rain showers will linger over the Central and Western
Aleutians through Wednesday as a decaying frontal boundary
continues to weaken overhead. Meanwhile, the eastern half of the
Bering will see increasing cloud cover and eventual snow shower
activity through Thursday in cold northeast flow as the mainland
low retrogrades offshore of the Kuskokwim Delta. This will also
bring heavy freezing spray to the coastal waters north of Cape
Newenham as colder air temperatures return to the region. Another
front will then move over the Western Aleutians by Thursday
afternoon, bringing a round of steadier mixed precipitation to
the western part of the chain.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...
A progressive pattern is on tap. The forecast period commences
with an upper level low in the Gulf Of Alaska and a second low
near the Central Aleutians. Even early in this period, there is
some significant divergence in solutions. For the low near SE AK,
the GFS and the Canadian GEM have the mid-level low near 52N and
140W while the ECMWF and the NAM are further west. The NCEP RMOP
(Relative Measure Of Predicatility) for the ensemble mean is in
low confidence territory by 96 HRS for the Gulf of Alaska. But
when the western low was evaluated the divergence at 500 MB was
more significant but the RMOP was substantially more confident
with this new closed low. All the while there is another disturbance
influencing Southwest AK and all of the major models depicting
the negatively-tilted shortwave in roughly the same place with a
robust impulse of energy. However, that feature will rapidly push
north of the Alaska Range and out of the AOR. Even with the
confidence issues due to the lack of consensus, the tangible
sensible weather highlights include gale force winds with both
the low in the Gulf Of Alaska and the Central Aleutians. Expect
moisture to wrap around the Gulf low and across portions of
Prince William Sound Saturday. The frontal boundary that is
bisecting the Bering will bring another round of precipitation to
the Pribilof Islands and the Chain this weekend. By Sunday, both
the GFS and the ECMWF have another surface low south of Kamchatka
which will continue to push towards Attu Island and then take a
more easterly track pushing across the Aleutians. This system too
will yield another round of blustery weather.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 139 180 181 185.
         Gale Warning 119 125 127 130.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DEK/RA
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CB
LONG TERM...PS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTED
National Weather Service ANCHORAGE AK
317 AM AKDT Wed Apr 4 2018

AKZ101-121-125-052015-
Anchorage-Western Kenai Peninsula-Western Prince William Sound-
Including the cities of Anchorage, Eagle River, Indian, Eklutna,
Kenai, Soldotna, Homer, Cooper Landing, Whittier, Seward,
Girdwood, and Moose Pass
317 AM AKDT Wed Apr 4 2018

...Snow returning to the Southern Mainland through Thursday...

After a long period of sunny and dry conditions throughout much
of the Southern Mainland, snow is expected to return to the area
today. The highest confidence and most significant snowfall is
expected over Western Prince William Sound, including areas near
sea level such as Whittier, Portage, and Seward that will remain
as snow throughout the event. Snowfall accumulations will be
highest from Whittier to Turnagain Pass where up to a foot of snow
is expected, with over 20 inches possible in the Portage Valley.
This event is expected to persist into Thursday morning.

Confidence in accumulating snowfall over the Western Kenai
Peninsula and Anchorage Bowl is however much less from this event
due to the recent very dry weather pattern. At this point it
doesn't appear that these areas will see significant
accumulations, however the best chance for snow is expected late
this afternoon and evening, potentially impacting the afternoon
commute.

Snowfall is then expected to begin to diminish throughout the area
Thursday morning into the afternoon.

For the latest forecast for your location, please visit
weather.gov/anchorage.