Gale Warning 288, NWS Anchorage, AK

430 
FZAK62 PAFC 132321
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
321 PM AKDT Fri Apr 13 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-141345-
321 PM AKDT Fri Apr 13 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 980 mb low near 51N 172E will move to 56N 172E at 967 mb Sat
afternoon and then move to 57N 179E at 982 mb Sun afternoon. 
A developing 997 mb low near 51N 175W Sat afternoon will rapidly
move to 61N 177W and strengthen to 980 mb Sun afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-141345-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
321 PM AKDT Fri Apr 13 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 to 45 kt becoming S south of 56N after midnight.
Seas 10 to 18 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ412-141345-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
321 PM AKDT Fri Apr 13 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt becoming SE 25 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Snow and rain.
.SAT...S wind 25 to 40 kt diminishing to 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 10 to 16 ft. Snow.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 14 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.TUE...SE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 11 to 14 ft.
.WED...NW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ413-141345-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
321 PM AKDT Fri Apr 13 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft building to 9 to
17 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SAT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 17 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 17 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.

$$

PKZ414-141345-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
321 PM AKDT Fri Apr 13 2018

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind up to 15 kt becoming SE 15 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 7 to
12 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

563 
FZAK62 PAFC 141145
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
345 AM AKDT Sat Apr 14 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-150130-
345 AM AKDT Sat Apr 14 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 969 mb low at 55N 173E will move to 57N 175E at 971 mb by Sun
morning and then to 60N 176W at 987 mb by Mon morning.

$$

PKZ411-150130-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
345 AM AKDT Sat Apr 14 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S to E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.TONIGHT...S to W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 21 ft. Snow showers.
.SUN...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.

$$

PKZ412-150130-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
345 AM AKDT Sat Apr 14 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 to 35 kt diminishing to 15 to 25 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 9 to 15 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 to 25 kt becoming S 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
12 to 17 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 20 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.
.WED...NE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ413-150130-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
345 AM AKDT Sat Apr 14 2018

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft. Snow showers.
.SUN...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. Snow showers.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft.

$$

PKZ414-150130-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
345 AM AKDT Sat Apr 14 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 20 to 35 kt diminishing to 15 to 25 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.WED...SE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.

$$

257 
FZAK62 PAFC 142327
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
327 PM AKDT Sat Apr 14 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-151245-
327 PM AKDT Sat Apr 14 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 965 mb low at 57N 174E moves to 63N 178W for Mon afternoon. Its
front pushes over Western Alaska Sun afternoon. A 993 mb low 
forms near 53N 172W Sat evening and moves into the Gulf of Anadyr Sun
evening. A 973 mb low moves to 55N 176E with its front over the 
Central Aleutians Mon afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-151245-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
327 PM AKDT Sat Apr 14 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt becoming W south of 56N after midnight.
Seas 14 to 22 ft. Snow showers and rain showers.
.SUN...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft. Snow and rain.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 to 40 kt becoming SW 15 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.

$$

PKZ412-151245-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
327 PM AKDT Sat Apr 14 2018

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 12 to 17 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 16 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 20 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 15 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind up to 15 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ413-151245-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
327 PM AKDT Sat Apr 14 2018

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft. Rain showers and
snow showers.
.SUN...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft. Snow and rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 18 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 19 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.THU...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ414-151245-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
327 PM AKDT Sat Apr 14 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 25 to 40 kt diminishing to 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 12 to 17 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.WED...SE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.

$$

530 
FZAK62 PAFC 151204
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
404 AM AKDT Sun Apr 15 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-160045-
404 AM AKDT Sun Apr 15 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 981 mb low at 57N 174W and a 972 mb low at 57N 174E merge into a
976 mb low and moves into the Gulf of Anadyr by Mon afternoon. A 974
mb low at 51N 165E Mon morning moves to 56N 178W at 970 mb by Tue 
morning. An associated front moves from the western to central 
Aleutians through Tue morning.

$$

PKZ411-160045-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
404 AM AKDT Sun Apr 15 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 20 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Widespread snow
showers and rain.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.
.THU...NW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ412-160045-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
404 AM AKDT Sun Apr 15 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 to 35 kt becoming 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
11 to 16 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt becoming 30 kt after midnight. Seas
13 to 19 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ413-160045-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
404 AM AKDT Sun Apr 15 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft. Rain and snow 
showers.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 to 30 kt becoming S 25 to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 13 to 17 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 17 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.THU...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ414-160045-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
404 AM AKDT Sun Apr 15 2018

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 35 to 50 kt diminishing to 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.THU...E wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
420 PM AKDT Thu Apr 12 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The upper level map shows a weak low over the Gulf of Alaska with
some ridging over the eastern Interior. The jet stream is running
over the western Aleutians and then diving southeastward and under
the Gulf low. This jet stream position is favorable for the
strengthening of the surface low near the Kamchatka Peninsula and
that is reflected on the computer models.
The surface pressure pattern is allowing the interior and
Southcentral Alaska to clear out nicely with weak high pressure
over the mainland part of the state. A vertically stacked surface
low in the Gulf will continue to bring some clouds to the Gulf and
extending into the Bering Sea and parts of southwest Alaska.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
In the eastern parts of the forecast area the models have been
very similar with no big concerns. The high-resolution NamNest was
consulted for wind details through channeled terrain.
The Bering Sea is a little different story as a significant spread
in model solutions emerges by Saturday in regards to the low
center in the western Bering Sea. The GFS was viewed as the best
solution, but the ECMWF is very close.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions will persist. The only real uncertainty
regarding the Anchorage TAF is whether some Turnagain Arm winds
clip the airport this evening or not. Most recent data looks like
the strongest winds should miss the airport to the south, but it
is not out of the question that a few gusts make it into the
airport this evening before ending by midnight.

&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Multiple weak lows circulating around the northeast Pacific and
Gulf of Alaska, and lingering low level instability will continue
to bring showers across the Gulf region through Friday night. Some
weak upper level waves passing over the Copper River Basin will
also keep a chance of showers over the area through Saturday. The
pattern will undergo a change over the next couple days as the
low circulation shifts southward into the Pacific, and steering
flow over Southcentral shifts to northerly as a high amplitude
ridge approaches from the Bering Sea on Saturday. This will
establish an offshore flow pattern over Southcentral Alaska,
bringing a drying trend through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

The same general upper air pattern is finally begin to shift away
from southeast flow. The last shortwave trough is moving across
the Kuskokwim Delta and westward into the Bering Sea. There are a
few lingering showers leftover, but expect rapid drying overnight
as shortwave ridging begins to build in. Some fog is expected
overnight given the slack winds, but it should not be widespread
dense fog. Dry conditions will then persist through most of
Saturday before a quickly moving warm front approaches the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

Broad cyclonic flow exists over most of the Bering Sea with an
approaching warm front over the western Bering. This system will
become the dominant system the next two days as it strengthens
rapidly into a powerful near storm force low over the western
Bering Sea Friday night through Sat. The associated gale force
front will reach the eastern Bering by Saturday afternoon as the
low undergoes rapid occlusion.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
A ridge pattern over the eastern mainland keeps most of
Southcentral dry for the end of the weekend. A strong storm system
centered over the western Bering slides a front through the
southern and eastern waters Saturday night. The boundary lines up along
the west coast and slowly pushes rain inland through Sunday
morning. A strong wave of energy riding up from the North Pacific
keeps higher rain chances across the eastern Bering and west coast
through Sunday night. This next wave is expected to kick the
surface front into eastward motion on Monday spreading rain to the
Alaska and Aleutian ranges. There is still a bit of uncertainty
with the eastward progression of this front through Wednesday as
models are struggling on how to resolve the eastern Bering low
with another Pacific front racing in from the west, while yet
another wave plunges south over the Alcan border.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gales 173-178 185 411-413.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...TP
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JA
LONG TERM...KH