Gale Warning 267, NWS Anchorage, AK

292 
FZAK52 PAFC 232346
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
346 PM AKDT Fri Mar 23 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-241230-
346 PM AKDT Fri Mar 23 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 992 mb low 200 nm South of Attu moves to 40 nm Northeast of St
Paul Island at 976 mb by Sun afternoon. The associated weather front
moves over the Aleutians and extends across the Alaska Peninsula 
then splits into the Southern Gulf of Alaska and North Pacific by Sun
afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-241230-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
346 PM AKDT Fri Mar 23 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Widespread rain and snow
showers.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ155-241230-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
346 PM AKDT Fri Mar 23 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. From the Shumagin Islands E, S wind 15 kt
becoming SE 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft. Widespread rain
showers.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ160-241230-
Bristol Bay-
346 PM AKDT Fri Mar 23 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
in ice free waters 5 ft. Patchy freezing fog.
.SAT...SE wind 10 kt becoming E in the afternoon. Seas in ice free
waters 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. Freezing
spray. Snow.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.

$$

PKZ165-241230-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
346 PM AKDT Fri Mar 23 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt except variable 10 kt from Port Moller E.
Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ170-241230-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
346 PM AKDT Fri Mar 23 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Snow and rain.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Snow and rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ171-241230-
Unalaska Bay-
346 PM AKDT Fri Mar 23 2018

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Widespread rain and snow showers.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-241230-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
346 PM AKDT Fri Mar 23 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
8 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ173-241230-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
346 PM AKDT Fri Mar 23 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Snow and rain.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...W wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ174-241230-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
346 PM AKDT Fri Mar 23 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ175-241230-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
346 PM AKDT Fri Mar 23 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Snow and rain showers.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ176-241230-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
346 PM AKDT Fri Mar 23 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Snow and rain showers.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ177-241230-
Adak to Kiska-
346 PM AKDT Fri Mar 23 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. Widespread rain and snow
showers.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ178-241230-
Kiska to Attu-
346 PM AKDT Fri Mar 23 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ179-241230-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
346 PM AKDT Fri Mar 23 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Snow and rain.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. Snow and rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ180-241230-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
346 PM AKDT Fri Mar 23 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft. Snow.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft. Freezing
spray. Snow.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.

$$

PKZ181-241230-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
346 PM AKDT Fri Mar 23 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft. Freezing
spray.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft. Snow.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft. Freezing
spray. Snow.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.

$$

PKZ185-241230-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
346 PM AKDT Fri Mar 23 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Snow.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
436 PM AKDT Thu Mar 22 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
There is an upper level high over southern Alaska this afternoon.
There is a surface high centered over east central Alaska nudging
into the Copper River basin, with fairly strong offshore flow
over Southcentral. There is a large upper low centered over the
western Bering Sea. An associated surface front stretches from the
Alaska Peninsula north through the coastal portions of the
Kuskokwim Delta. Snow and blowing snow are occurring along the
Kuskokwim Delta coast, with rain further south over the eastern
Bering and Alaska Peninsula. Plenty of showers behind this front
are evident over most of the Bering Sea and Aleutians.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The numerical models are in good agreement for the short term
portion of the forecast (Saturday afternoon). Some differences
begin Friday night with a surface low crossing the central and
western Aleutians that moves into the Bering on Saturday, but
these are fairly minor. Forecast confidence is therefore above
normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2...Fri and
Sat)...
Winds will slowly decrease this evening as the ridge axis continues
to bull its way over southern AK. The upper level energy will
continue to drift east out of the Gulf overnight while the thermal
gradient relaxes simultaneously. Winds appear to have peaked
through Thompson Pass and Valdez earlier this morning and should
continue to slowly diminish now. As is often the case, they are
"exceeded expectations" in Whittier and Seward where gusts
continue to reach near 45 mph. These too should slowly fall off
through the evening.

Then attention shifts to a weak front approaching the area from
the west on Fri. This front is "washing out"/falling apart as it
crosses the AK Range. However, it does still look like a rapidly
moving shortwave will bring enough energy to keep a chance
rain/snow for Kodiak Island in the forecast. This front will
produce a surface low over the Northern Gulf of AK late Fri into
Sat. This will result in another round of offshore flow across
southern AK with some more cold air advection wrapping around the
backside of the low. However, this event will be much weaker than
the ongoing one through many of the usual gaps (Valdez, Thompson
Pass, Matanuska Valley, etc). It appears the best support will be
for strong northwest flow near the Barren Islands and Shelikof
Strait. Gale warnings have been hoisted for the Barren Islands.
These winds will be quite short-lived coming down already by late
Sat morning. After that, weather will remain relatively quiet with
just slowly increasing clouds as the next front approaches from
the southwest Sun.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

The front moving onshore the Kuskokwim Delta coast this afternoon
will slowly progress inland over the next 24 hours or so. The
front is weakening, so there is not a lot of warm air still being
transported into the area. As a result, even most of the
population centers around the Bristol Bay zone should stay cold
enough for snow. Most places will see a quick 1 or 2 inches with
not much potential for higher amounts except over the Lower
Kuskokwim Valley where continued slowing of the front may allow
for slightly higher snow amounts. The north Delta Coast is seeing
significant blowing snow at the moment, but this should be
diminishing rapidly as the front starts to fall apart this
evening. Weak high pressure/ridging moves into the area for the
end of the week and first half of the weekend, which should allow
for some breaks of sunshine and fairly typical springtime
temperatures across the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

The large storm over the northern Bering is generating significant
storm-force winds north and west of Saint Matthew Island today,
but the good news is this storm is quickly moving northward and
away from the area. Moderate cold advection, gusty winds, and snow
showers are evident on satellite imagery across much of the rest
of the Bering. These conditions will continue through the day
Friday, but by Saturday morning the next storm will cross into the
region from the western Aleutians. This next storm looks to be
strong enough to produce some gale-force winds, but overall should
be a fairly typical storm strength as it continues tracking toward
the Pribilofs by the end of the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
A brief pattern change will begin on Sunday, as the ridge in the
North Pacific weakens slightly and moves southward. This will
allow the low pressure systems that have been remaining in the
western portion of the area to move eastward, affecting more of the
mainland. On Sunday, a triple point low will develop along the
front south of the Aleutians, then strengthen as it moves into the
Gulf of Alaska. This will bring weather onshore for the Gulf Coast
region. However, the system will weaken rapidly as it heads
northward over the mainland and precipitation will diminish for
interior regions on Monday. By Tuesday, forecast continuity
between the model solutions begins to struggle. Earlier runs
indicated that the ridging would build back in to the North
Pacific, which would bring a very spring-like pattern to the
forecast area. However, this afternoon's runs have diverged,
instead bringing a strong low into the Gulf of Alaska. This brings
low confidence to the extended forecast for today

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Storm 185. Gales 127 128 130 131 177 411 412 None.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...AD
LONG TERM...LF