Gale Warning 242, NWS Anchorage, AK

136 
FZAK51 PAFC 090023
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
323 PM AKST Thu Mar 8 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-091315-
323 PM AKST Thu Mar 8 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 967 mb near Kodiak Island moves inland over the Kenai Peninsula
early Friday morning. A secondary low complex with multiple low
centers forms over the western Gulf Friday evening and continues
through Saturday afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-091315-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
323 PM AKST Thu Mar 8 2018

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind to 55 kt becoming S 45 kt after midnight. 
Seas building to 21 ft. Snow and rain.
.FRI...S wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 23 ft. Snow showers.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ120-091315-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
323 PM AKST Thu Mar 8 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas building to 21 ft. Snow and rain.
.FRI...SW wind 35 kt becoming S 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 21 ft
subsiding to 14 ft in the afternoon. Snow showers.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ121-091315-
Resurrection Bay-
323 PM AKST Thu Mar 8 2018

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming N by midnight. Seas 3 ft. 
Freezing spray. Snow.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt becoming S 15 kt late morning. Seas 4 ft. 
Freezing spray in the morning. Snow showers.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow showers.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-091315-
Prince William Sound-
323 PM AKST Thu Mar 8 2018

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt increasing to 50 kt by late evening. 
Seas building to 13 ft. Snow.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Snow showers.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow and rain showers.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-091315-
Port Valdez-
323 PM AKST Thu Mar 8 2018

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt by midnight. Seas
building to 4 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Snow showers.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-091315-
Valdez Narrows-
323 PM AKST Thu Mar 8 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. Snow
showers.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-091315-
Valdez Arm-
323 PM AKST Thu Mar 8 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Snow.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow showers.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming NE wind 15 kt 
after midnight. Seas 3 ft. Snow showers and rain showers.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ129-091315-
Passage Canal-
323 PM AKST Thu Mar 8 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Gusts to 50 kt near Whittier. Seas 4 ft. 
Snow.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts to
45 kt near Whittier in the morning. Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft in 
the afternoon. Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread snow showers.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ130-091315-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
323 PM AKST Thu Mar 8 2018

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 50 kt. Seas 16 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11 ft
subsiding to 5 ft in the afternoon. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ131-091315-
Barren Islands East-
323 PM AKST Thu Mar 8 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 45 kt. Seas 15 ft building to 20 ft after 
midnight. Freezing spray. Snow and rain.
.FRI...W wind 35 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 18 ft 
subsiding to 11 ft in the afternoon.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ132-091315-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
323 PM AKST Thu Mar 8 2018

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 55 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt becoming SW 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 15 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ136-091315-
Chiniak Bay-
323 PM AKST Thu Mar 8 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind increasing to 45 kt this evening. Seas 2 ft 
building to 6 ft after midnight. Snow.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 5 ft subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable 
less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-091315-
Marmot Bay-
323 PM AKST Thu Mar 8 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind increasing to 45 kt this evening. Seas 4 ft
building to 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 6 ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ138-091315-
Shelikof Strait-
323 PM AKST Thu Mar 8 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 45 kt. Gusts to 55 kt in the evening. Seas 13 ft. 
Freezing spray.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt becoming SW 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft
subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ139-091315-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
323 PM AKST Thu Mar 8 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft. Freezing
spray. Snow.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas in ice free
waters 5 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt after midnight.
Seas in ice free waters 3 ft building to 5 ft after midnight. 
Freezing spray.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-091315-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
323 PM AKST Thu Mar 8 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Snow.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt becoming S 20 kt in the afternoon. Snow.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 10 kt.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N wind 10 kt.

$$

PKZ141-091315-
Kachemak Bay-
323 PM AKST Thu Mar 8 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt becoming NW after midnight. Seas 6 ft
building to 10 ft after midnight. Freezing spray. Snow.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon. 
Freezing spray. Snow.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

875 
FZAK51 PAFC 091249
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
349 AM AKST Fri Mar 9 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-100130-
349 AM AKST Fri Mar 9 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 963 mb low 80 nm south of Seward moves inland 40 nm west of
Kenai Fri evening. A front pushes into Southeastern Alaska for 
Fri afternoon. A 989 mb low forms 60 nm south of Kodiak City Sat 
morning and moves to 75 nm west of Kodiak City at 1004 mb by Sun 
morning.

$$

PKZ119-100130-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
349 AM AKST Fri Mar 9 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 40 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 22
ft. Widespread snow showers.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. Snow showers.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Snow and rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ120-100130-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
349 AM AKST Fri Mar 9 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 40 kt becoming S 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 20
ft subsiding to 15 ft in the afternoon. Snow.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. Snow showers and rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ121-100130-
Resurrection Bay-
349 AM AKST Fri Mar 9 2018

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt becoming S 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 2 ft building to 4 ft in the afternoon. Snow.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Freezing spray in the evening. Snow.
.SAT...S wind 10 kt becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
Widespread snow showers.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-100130-
Prince William Sound-
349 AM AKST Fri Mar 9 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft subsiding to 6 ft in the
afternoon. Snow.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow showers.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow showers.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-100130-
Port Valdez-
349 AM AKST Fri Mar 9 2018

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Widespread snow showers.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow showers.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-100130-
Valdez Narrows-
349 AM AKST Fri Mar 9 2018

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. Widespread
snow showers.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray in the morning. Snow 
showers.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-100130-
Valdez Arm-
349 AM AKST Fri Mar 9 2018

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Widespread snow
showers.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Snow showers.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-100130-
Passage Canal-
349 AM AKST Fri Mar 9 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts to
50 kt in the morning diminishing to 30 kt by early afternoon. Seas 5
ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon. Snow.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray after midnight. 
Widespread snow showers.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing spray in the morning. 
Widespread snow showers.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-100130-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
349 AM AKST Fri Mar 9 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
11 ft subsiding to 5 ft in the afternoon. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt becoming E 15 kt after midnight. Seas 4
ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ131-100130-
Barren Islands East-
349 AM AKST Fri Mar 9 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 40 kt becoming SW 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 17
ft subsiding to 12 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ132-100130-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
349 AM AKST Fri Mar 9 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 15
ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ136-100130-
Chiniak Bay-
349 AM AKST Fri Mar 9 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4
ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-100130-
Marmot Bay-
349 AM AKST Fri Mar 9 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7
ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SE 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ138-100130-
Shelikof Strait-
349 AM AKST Fri Mar 9 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
6 ft subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ139-100130-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
349 AM AKST Fri Mar 9 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt becoming NW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas in
ice free waters 5 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming NE after midnight. Seas in ice
free waters 3 ft building to 5 ft after midnight. Freezing spray.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.MON...SE wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2
ft.

$$

PKZ140-100130-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
349 AM AKST Fri Mar 9 2018

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming N 10 kt after midnight.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt.
.SUN...N wind 10 kt.
.MON THROUGH TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt.

$$

PKZ141-100130-
Kachemak Bay-
349 AM AKST Fri Mar 9 2018

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt in the early morning becoming SW. Seas 2 ft 
building to 6 ft in the afternoon. Widespread snow showers.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming NE 10 kt after midnight. Seas 4
ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
417 PM AKST Wed Mar 7 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A weakening upper trough is moving slowly east across Southcentral
this morning. This feature is wringing the remaining bite of
moisture out of the clouds in the form of flurries and local
freezing drizzle across the Kenai Peninsula to MAT-SU Valley
corridor. While light snow as falling across the Copper River and
snow showers along the North Gulf Coast.

Out West, an eastward marching front is spreading snow across the
Southwest Mainland and Bristol Bay and rain along the Alaska
Peninsula. Cold advection on the backside of the front shows up
well on satellite imagery with the presence of open cell cumulus
across much of the Bering Sea and western Aleutian Islands.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models still struggle some with the handling of the triple point
which moves to near Kodiak Thursday. All models except for the NAM
keep the low center south of the Kenai Peninsula through Midnight
Thursday night. By Friday morning, the NAM and GFS have the low
center over northern Cook Inlet while the ECMWF keeps the center
near Seward. While overall confidence is low, confidence is
increasing on significant snowfall is likely over the eastern
Kenai Peninsula and along Kachemak Bay.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...There will likely be a break in MVFR conditions this
evening. Otherwise, expect MVFR ceiling through tonight with local
IFR conditions possible during the morning and afternoon hours
Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The latest radar from Middleton Island (PAIH) has an elongated
band of showers bisecting the northern Gulf of Alaska spanning
from Chenega to southeast of the Copper River Delta. This band
will bring showers into Cordova but the dynamics supporting this
disturbance will continue to decay overnight.

A new storm is on the horizon. The latest satellite image has a
mature low pressure system moving into southwest AK. It's
virtually a perfect "T-bone structure" with the occlusion
extending towards Nome and the Bering Straight with the warm front
moving towards the AK PEN and Kodiak. The jet core is moving over
the Barren Islands and towards Kenai. As the forecast period
unfolds, the jet core will push south and a new triple point low
will develop south of the AK PEN. Expect an inverted trough to jut
northwards out of the surface low towards Kenai. The GFS rapidly
deepens this low having it drop more than 24 mb in 24 hrs from 15z
Thursday to 15z Friday, effectively bombing it out. The GFS hugs
the surface low close to the southern coast of the Kenai Peninsula
and then the GFS brings jumps the low west, which gets echoed by
the ECMWF. All the while, moisture is getting wrapped into the
Kenai Peninsula. Sensible weather highlights for Kenai include a
hefty amount of snow in the southern portion of Kenai, gusty
winds, blowing snow and avalanche potential. A Winter Weather
Advisory has been issued for portions of the Kenai Peninsula.

Kodiak will see strong west to northwest winds develop with the
strongest winds over Afognak and Shuyak Islands. Temperatures
will be close to or just above freezing.

The Anchorage Metro Area and the Mat-Su valleys will see the
only light snowfall from this storm as the latest runs of the
models indicating downsloping developing over the area.

Whittier and the Eastern Kenai Peninsula will see widespread
accumulations of a foot or more from this system with strong
onshore flow and temperatures generally remaining cold enough for
snow, however at this point warning level amounts are not expected.
Cordova and Valdez can also anticipate a fresh blanket of snow
with this new storm. Currently, model data suggests that the
temperatures will remain cold enough for precipitation to remain
all snow.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

A dynamic weather pattern is moving into Southwest Alaska this
evening as a leading edge warm front moves into the coast. This is
bringing snow with some mixed precipitation and rain to the
immediate Bristol Bay coast. This front moves inland toward the
Alaska Range then stalls tonight. This first shot with the front
will bring moderate snow from King Salmon eastward. But the bigger
story will then become a developing powerful triple point low
which will move over Kodiak Island and towards the southern Kenai
Peninsula. Strong warm air advection aloft will develop an
expansive deformation zone which will spread heavy snow over
eastern Bristol Bay into the lower Kuskokwim Valley. Strong
northwest winds with gusts as high as 35 MPH will accompany the
snow, with the heaviest accumulations around 6-12" with some
local 15" amounts near the Alaska Range. For this reason, a winter
storm warning will be active from 5 PM this evening to 9 PM
Thursday evening. The heaviest snow will occur through Friday
morning before shifting west and becoming more showery.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

A strong and fast moving warm front is crossing the Bering Sea and
will reach the Southwest coast by Thursday morning. Broad cyclonic
flow and strong cold air advection will ensue behind the front,
with storms over the northern Bering Sea and strong gale force
winds elsewhere. High seas of 25-33 feet will move toward the
Aleutian chain by Friday given the long fetch. Expect periodic
heavy snow showers given the very cold air mass aloft and the
strong cyclonic flow.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
An upper level low near Kodiak Island Friday evening will drop
southward through Sunday morning as the pattern further
amplifies. Another low will form just to the west of this low and
move northward, becoming the dominant low in the central Gulf by
Sunday afternoon. Further west, a large ridge over the Bering Sea
will slowly flatten through Sunday as a front pushes eastward
across the Bering and Aleutians. As this front reaches the
southwest Alaska coast on Sunday afternoon, the pattern will again
attempt to become more zonal. Exactly how this happens into early
next week is giving the models a bit of a struggle. This includes
how the models handle the Gulf low, which looks to weaken and then
possibly join the westerly flow as the it strengthens over the
state. Due to the model differences, the forecast issued by WPC
begins to tilt more strongly towards the ensemble means as the
week progresses.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Storm Warning 161.
         Winter Weather Advisory 121.
MARINE...Storm 119 125 130 132 185.
         Gale 120 131 136 137 138 139 150 155 165 170-179.
         Heavy Freezing Spray 181 185

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RMC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...PS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JA
LONG TERM...BL