Gale Warning 228, NWS Anchorage, AK

691 
FZAK62 PAFC 311126
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
326 AM AKDT Sat Mar 31 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-010100-
326 AM AKDT Sat Mar 31 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

Eastern Bering high pressure moves to the Northern Bering by Mon
morning. A front slides over the Western Bering through Mon
morning. A second front South of the Aleutians moves across the 
Western Aleutians for Mon morning.

$$

PKZ411-010100-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
326 AM AKDT Sat Mar 31 2018

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...E wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ412-010100-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
326 AM AKDT Sat Mar 31 2018

.TODAY...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ413-010100-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
326 AM AKDT Sat Mar 31 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 to 15 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...NE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ414-010100-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
326 AM AKDT Sat Mar 31 2018

.TODAY...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

976 
FZAK62 PAFC 312326
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
326 PM AKDT Sat Mar 31 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-011315-
326 PM AKDT Sat Mar 31 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
High pressure will remain over the northern and eastern Bering Sea
through Monday afternoon. A weather front will remain nearly
stationary over the central and western Aleutians and southwest
Bering Sea through Monday.

$$

PKZ411-011315-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
326 PM AKDT Sat Mar 31 2018

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain showers.
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ412-011315-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
326 PM AKDT Sat Mar 31 2018

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ413-011315-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
326 PM AKDT Sat Mar 31 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ414-011315-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
326 PM AKDT Sat Mar 31 2018

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.

$$

280 
FZAK62 PAFC 011120
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
320 AM AKDT Sun Apr 1 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-020100-
320 AM AKDT Sun Apr 1 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

High pressure moves to the Bering Strait for Tue morning. A front
remains over the Aleutians through Tue morning. A 998 mb North 
Pacific low moves to 49N 180 by Tue morning.

$$

PKZ411-020100-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
320 AM AKDT Sun Apr 1 2018

.TODAY...E wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain showers.
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ412-020100-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
320 AM AKDT Sun Apr 1 2018

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.THU...NE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ413-020100-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
320 AM AKDT Sun Apr 1 2018

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 to 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ414-020100-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
320 AM AKDT Sun Apr 1 2018

.TODAY...E wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft.
.THU...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
400 AM AKDT Fri Mar 30 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The longwave pattern is dominated by a building upper level ridge
over the Bering and a weakening upper level trough over
Southcentral. At the surface, high pressure is spreading over the
western half of the state leading to clearing skies and light winds,
though fog has developed over the Bristol Bay area as a result. A
very weak surface trough extends across the Gulf Coast into the Cook
Inlet area bringing increased cloudiness with a few isolated snow
showers over the Chugach Mountains and even a stray shower over the
Anchorage Bowl this morning.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The numerical models are in good agreement for most of the
forecast period, all showing a large closed high building over
most of the state this weekend. The models have been struggling
with some of the finer details of the forecast including fog over
Bristol Bay and the spotty showers over southwest and
southcentral. Overall forecast confidence is high through the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Radar currently shows a few isolated snow showers moving
south across the Anchorage Bowl, with Ft. Richardson reporting
MVFR ceilings. Thus a short period of ceilings below 3000 ft and
some light snow can be expected over the terminal early this
morning before VFR conditions and light winds take over and
persist the rest of the TAF period.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The upper level low is over southcentral Alaska as of early this
morning as it cuts off and moves into the Gulf of Alaska today.
There are some isolated snow showers near the low center but these
will dissipate by mid morning. The low moving into the Gulf will
bring in some somewhat gusty winds to coastal areas and through
channeled terrain, but the lack of cold air to the north will
mitigate the strength of the gusts.
Other than that, there should be decreasing clouds by afternoon
over most of the region with the Copper River Basin likely the
last area to clear out.
A shortwave in the interior will move over the northern Susitna
Valley and Copper River Basin Saturday and Saturday night, but it
looks like it should just bring some mid-to-high level clouds
without any precipitation.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
High pressure over the eastern Bering will remain the dominant
feature through this weekend, bringing a stretch of dry weather
and sunny skies to much of the southwest mainland. The fog threat
will hang on for one more night, particularly across the Kuskokwim
Delta as warm advection works into the area with the eastward
advance of the ridge. Increasing offshore flow this weekend should
help to limit fog potential in subsequent nights.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
The Bering will stay largely quiet through the weekend as the
closed upper high remains overhead. This will keep one front
confined to the far western Bering and another front just south of
the Aleutian chain into Saturday. Rain will then begin to work
back into the chain Saturday night and Sunday as the ridge shifts
north towards Saint Lawrence Island, allowing the North Pacific
front to move over the Central Aleutians. This feature will also
be accompanied by gale force winds and higher seas on the Pacific
side of the chain.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The long term forecast begins Saturday night with dominant high
pressure over the eastern Bering. There is good consensus amongst
the models with this setup leading to an outflow pattern for the
southern mainland. This setup will remain into early next week
when the high pressure diminishes and moves west. There is also
good agreement of an upper level low developing over mainland
Alaska as the high diminishes. However, guidance varies greatly
on where this low will setup and its timing. This will play a big
factor in the type of weather that will develop over the southern
mainland. Due to the uncertainty by mid next week the ensembles
were preferred for that time.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gales 172 174 176.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KVP
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CB
LONG TERM...DK