Gale Warning 206, NWS Anchorage, AK

494 
FZAK62 PAFC 030006
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
306 PM AKST Fri Mar 2 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-031400-
306 PM AKST Fri Mar 2 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 996 mb North Pacific low at 51N 160W will move to 49N 151W at 
1000 mb by Sat afternoon. A front moves over the Central Aleutians
through Sun afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-031400-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
306 PM AKST Fri Mar 2 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft. Snow and rain.
.SAT...S wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 16 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 18 to 25 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 22 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 17 to 26 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ412-031400-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
306 PM AKST Fri Mar 2 2018

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt becoming S 15 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 14 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 20 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.

$$

PKZ413-031400-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
306 PM AKST Fri Mar 2 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Snow and rain.
.SAT...S wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.

$$

PKZ414-031400-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
306 PM AKST Fri Mar 2 2018

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.

$$

961 
FZAK62 PAFC 031214
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
314 AM AKST Sat Mar 3 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-040400-
314 AM AKST Sat Mar 3 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 993 mb low at 51N 154W will move into the southern Gulf this
afternoon. A front over the western Aleutians will dissipate over
the central Aleutians tonight. A second front will move over the 
western Aleutians Sun night then it will move over the central 
Aleutians Tue morning. 

$$

PKZ411-040400-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
314 AM AKST Sat Mar 3 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 to 25 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 21 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 28 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 16 ft.

$$

PKZ412-040400-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
314 AM AKST Sat Mar 3 2018

.TODAY...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 14 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 20 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ413-040400-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
314 AM AKST Sat Mar 3 2018

.TODAY...S wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain with snow.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.

$$

PKZ414-040400-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
314 AM AKST Sat Mar 3 2018

.TODAY...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
450 PM AKST Thu Mar 1 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A warm high amplitude upper level ridge is over Southcentral
Alaska northward to the Arctic coast today, with the deep upper
level trough in the western Bering Sea. The jet stream at 250 mb
runs south to north in the eastern Bering between these features,
cuts across the northern side of the ridge and then goes north to
south along the AlCan border. The front associated with the low is
moving on shore along the Kuskokwim Delta and will move over
Bristol Bay tonight. Showers are occurring in the western Bering
sea in cold advection behind the front.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are remaining in surprisingly good agreement considering
the persistent progressive pattern. No significant synoptic
differences through the weekend. The only item to really discuss
are the smaller features such as the trough moving though the
area over the weekend. Timing looks good on all models with
heavier precipitation the farther north one goes. Anchorage looks
to be on the southern edge of the precipitation and the NAM model
has even shut off all snow in Anchorage. GFS continues to show a
light snowfall.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2...Fri and
Sat)...
High pressure will keep weather relatively calm the next 36 hours
before the next weak system starts to move through Saturday. For
tonight, offshore winds, especially at Seward, Valdez, and
Thompson Pass, will start to dramatically drop off later this
evening as upper level support/mixing starts to shift east. The
ridge axis will move directly over top of Cook Inlet early Friday
morning. This could lead to some patchy fog around open water
(Kenai up through Anchorage). However, mid-high clouds will also
be on the increase tonight and this could be just enough to
disrupt any fog formation. A fairly compact low pressure system
will approach Kodiak Island from the southwest by Friday
afternoon. As this system runs into the ridge, it will struggle to
move north. In fact, there is only a chance for precipitation at
this time for Kodiak City. If any does make it in there, it will
be the only location around the area to have a chance to see rain
mix with the snow.

It will take a trailing upper-level trough to bring the next
chance for precipitation to the majority of southern AK on
Saturday. This trough will clip just north of the afore mentioned
low pressure center. It will have limited moisture to work with
and it will be weakening as it moves through. However, it still
does have enough dynamics and some cold air to bring light snow to
Anchorage. The best chance for a few inches will be north of the
Cook Inlet, over the Susitna Valley and the Talkeetna Mountains.
Temperatures will remain at or below normal for just about all of
the area, so any precipitation that does fall, will be safely all
snow.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
A frontal system will continue to track from the west coast
across the Kuskokwim River Valley and Bristol Bay area tonight
through Friday morning. Snow will move through the Kuskokwim
Delta and Lower Kuskokwim Valley before tapering off in the
morning as the front weakens after becoming detached from the
parent low and elongates. Friday morning, a low will skirt south
the of Eastern Aleutians and AKPEN bringing moisture north into
the Bristol Bay area. This moisture will combine with the remnants
of the previous decaying front over the area and a weak
deformation zone to produce steady snowfall over the Northern
Bristol Bay area and Lower Kuskokwim River Valley Friday through
Saturday morning. Total snowfall looks to range from 3-6" with the
heaviest amounts seen between New Stuyahok and Togiak, including
Dillingham. High pressure builds in over the SW mainland by
Saturday afternoon before the next system quickly approaches
Sunday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
An upper level trough will dig south across the central Bering
tonight and Friday with cold westerly flow and embedded snow
showers developing over most of the area. Weak ridging will build
in out ahead of the next low Friday afternoon through Saturday
bringing a short period of rather tranquil weather to the area.
The next system moving in across the Western Aleutians will make
it to the central Aleutians Saturday morning and the eastern
Bering Saturday evening, bringing a swath of gale force winds as
the front sweeps across the region. It is also pulling up enough
warm air to bring rain or a mix of rain and snow to the Islands
as it passes.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
At the onset of the forecast period, the GFS ensemble members are
relatively grouped with the main synoptic features. There is a
low near Kamchatka, a dome of high pressure south of the Central
Aleutians and well-defined troughing north of the Alaska Range. As
the forecast period unfolds the ensemble members remain clustered
with the high in the North Pacific, but the ensemble members
diverge over the Bering pretty significantly. This does not bode
well for pinging into the precise timing of the fronts as they
cross the Bering, but at least two disturbances will push across
the Bering this forecast period and then move into Western Alaska.
Very confident in the progressive nature of the pattern. Monday a
new batch of wintry weather is anticipated to impact Kodiak with
moisture working its way up Cook Inlet later Monday impacting the
Anchorage Metro Area Tuesday and Wednesday. Late in the period,
the GFS and Canadian GEM bring additional moisture and dynamics
towards Southcentral from the north but the timing of the waves
has not phased yet. The bottom line is, the Anchorage Bowl and
the Mat-Su Valleys can expect more snow.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning 155 172 177 178.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MSO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KVP
LONG TERM...PJS