Gale Warning 203, NWS Anchorage, AK

578 
FZAK51 PAFC 010006
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
306 PM AKST Wed Feb 28 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-011315-
306 PM AKST Wed Feb 28 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
Northwesterly flow continues in the Gulf through 
Thursday afternoon. High pressure moves over the Gulf by Fri 
afternoon. A 994 mb low at 51N 158W extends a front into the Western 
Gulf for Fri afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-011315-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
306 PM AKST Wed Feb 28 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 40 kt. Gusts to 55 kt out of the Copper River 
Delta. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...N wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt out of the Copper River Delta. 
Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ120-011315-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
306 PM AKST Wed Feb 28 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...N wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ121-011315-
Resurrection Bay-
306 PM AKST Wed Feb 28 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ125-011315-
Prince William Sound-
306 PM AKST Wed Feb 28 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon.
Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt becoming NW 10 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-011315-
Port Valdez-
306 PM AKST Wed Feb 28 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Gusts to 50 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-011315-
Valdez Narrows-
306 PM AKST Wed Feb 28 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...N wind 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-011315-
Valdez Arm-
306 PM AKST Wed Feb 28 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-011315-
Passage Canal-
306 PM AKST Wed Feb 28 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt near Whittier. Seas 5 ft. 
Freezing spray.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Gusts to 30 kt near Whittier. Seas 3 ft. 
Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-011315-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
306 PM AKST Wed Feb 28 2018

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ131-011315-
Barren Islands East-
306 PM AKST Wed Feb 28 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt becoming N 30 kt after midnight. Seas
11 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...N wind 30 kt becoming NE 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft.
Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming W 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ132-011315-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
306 PM AKST Wed Feb 28 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt except N 40 kt N of Dangerous Cape
diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...N wind 25 kt becoming NW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft.
Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ136-011315-
Chiniak Bay-
306 PM AKST Wed Feb 28 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NW 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-011315-
Marmot Bay-
306 PM AKST Wed Feb 28 2018

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft subsiding to 1 ft in the afternoon. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-011315-
Shelikof Strait-
306 PM AKST Wed Feb 28 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ139-011315-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
306 PM AKST Wed Feb 28 2018

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft. Heavy freezing
spray.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. Freezing
spray.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-011315-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
306 PM AKST Wed Feb 28 2018

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt.
.THU...N wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N wind 10 kt.

$$

PKZ141-011315-
Kachemak Bay-
306 PM AKST Wed Feb 28 2018

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

022 
FZAK51 PAFC 011211
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
311 AM AKST Thu Mar 1 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-020130-
311 AM AKST Thu Mar 1 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
Northerly flow will diminish as high pressure builds in from the
west through Thu night. A front will enter the southwestern Gulf 
Fri afternoon and remain nearly stationary through Sat morning. 

$$

PKZ119-020130-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
311 AM AKST Thu Mar 1 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Gusts to 55 kt out of the Copper River Delta diminishing to 
45 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Gusts to 45 kt out of the Copper River 
Delta diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ120-020130-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
311 AM AKST Thu Mar 1 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ121-020130-
Resurrection Bay-
311 AM AKST Thu Mar 1 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the late afternoon. 
Seas 7 ft subsiding to 4 ft late. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray in the morning.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ125-020130-
Prince William Sound-
311 AM AKST Thu Mar 1 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Gusts to 40 kt out of bays and passes in the morning. Seas 6 ft 
subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt becoming NW 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-020130-
Port Valdez-
311 AM AKST Thu Mar 1 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt 
in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Gusts to 25 kt in the evening. 
Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...E wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less 
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-020130-
Valdez Narrows-
311 AM AKST Thu Mar 1 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray in the morning.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-020130-
Valdez Arm-
311 AM AKST Thu Mar 1 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable 
less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray in the morning.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-020130-
Passage Canal-
311 AM AKST Thu Mar 1 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Gusts to 40 kt near Whittier diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Gusts to 20 kt near Whittier. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.

$$

PKZ130-020130-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
311 AM AKST Thu Mar 1 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ131-020130-
Barren Islands East-
311 AM AKST Thu Mar 1 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt becoming Variable 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray in the morning.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ132-020130-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
311 AM AKST Thu Mar 1 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 9 ft subsiding to 5 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ136-020130-
Chiniak Bay-
311 AM AKST Thu Mar 1 2018

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt becoming NW less than 10 kt in the 
afternoon. Seas 3 ft subsiding. Freezing spray in the morning.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-020130-
Marmot Bay-
311 AM AKST Thu Mar 1 2018

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon. Freezing spray 
in the morning.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable 
less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt 
in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-020130-
Shelikof Strait-
311 AM AKST Thu Mar 1 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt becoming Variable 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 4 ft subsiding.
.FRI...NE wind increasing to 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-020130-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
311 AM AKST Thu Mar 1 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft. 
Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. 
Freezing spray.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.

$$

PKZ140-020130-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
311 AM AKST Thu Mar 1 2018

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt in the morning becoming Variable 
less than 10 kt.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 10 kt.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 10 kt.

$$

PKZ141-020130-
Kachemak Bay-
311 AM AKST Thu Mar 1 2018

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt becoming Variable 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Gusts to 30 kt in the morning. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray in the 
morning.
.TONIGHT...NE wind to 15 kt. Seas to 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
359 PM AKST Tue Feb 27 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A broad upper level trough continues over Mainland Alaska with an
amplifying ridge over the Bering Sea. Short waves embedded in the
long wave trough are supporting a few snow showers over Southwest
Alaska and along the Alaska range. Otherwise, there are numerous
breaks in cloud cover, especially across Southcentral. An
inverted surface trough over the North Gulf Coast has increased
pressure gradients and generating gusty outflow winds over the
western Gulf, eastern Kenai Peninsula, Prince William Sound, and
North Gulf Coast. Gusty northwest flow on the forward side of the
ridge is producing rain and snow showers across the eastern Bering
Sea and Alaska Peninsula. A northward moving storm center is bring
strong easterly winds with a mix of rain and snow to the western
and central Aleutians.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models overall are in relatively good agreement. Generally will be
leaning toward a GFS solution with the storm out over the western
Bering Sea and high res models with outflow conditions across
Southcentral.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions continue. Gusty north winds developing
tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The focus for this forecast will switch from snow to strong
offshore winds as the upper flow becomes more north-northwesterly.
A shortwave trough is currently digging south over Southcentral
this evening, and this will track into the Gulf of Alaska and
amplify tonight and Wednesday. Cold air advection behind this
shortwave trough will strengthen tonight with 850 hpa temperatures
dropping from -16C to -25C along the North Gulf Coast. Strong
subsidence will be aided by a rather impressive 145 kt upper level
jet streak which will shift east from the Bering Sea by
Wednesday. North to Northwest winds will be strong from Kodiak
Island to Prince William Sound, but they be strongest through
Thompson Pass where gusts to 80 MPH are possible. Because of this,
a high wind watch has been issued which will run from Wednesday
morning through the evening. This event looks to have some
potential erratic mountain wave dynamics, but wind gusts in Valdez
are expected to generally be below high wind criteria (73 MPH),
but a few stray peak gusts are not out of the question. Ridging
aloft will begin to move east over Southcentral Wednesday night
and Thursday with weakening offshore gap winds. Colder air and
arctic high pressure will settle in as winter maintains it's grip
on Southern Alaska.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2: Wednesday and
Thursday)...
A two-day break in the weather as far as precipitation is
concerned has begun across Southwest Alaska as skies clear area-
wide. A few lingering mountain snow showers cannot be ruled out
this evening. Otherwise, high pressure building in will return the
area to clear, calm, and cold conditions. This should allow low
temperatures inland to dip below zero tonight, with temperatures
around coastal Bristol Bay and the Kuskokwim Delta near zero.
Warm advection begins in earnest by Wednesday night, so
temperatures area wide should be a good 5-10 degrees warmer,
though some areas of the Lower Kuskokwim Valley should still get
into negative numbers again.

On Thursday, a weakening front gradually pushes eastward across
the area, with precipitation ongoing at the coast of the Kuskokwim
Delta around sunrise. Strong winds associated with the front may
lead to blowing snow concerns along the coast of the Kuskokwim
Delta late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. As the front
pushes inland it will quickly fall apart while interacting with
the mountains. Thus, Bristol Bay and the Lower Kuskokwim Valley
should not see much if anything in the way of snowfall activity as
the remnant front crosses the area late in the day Thursday into
Thursday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2: Wednesday
and Thursday)...
A strong storm system passing well west of Attu continues to
generate storm force winds across the western Aleutians this
evening, with occasional hurricane force gusts expected from Attu
west. Its associated front currently over the western Bering will
be the primary weather maker over the area for the next couple
days. The front slowly moves into the central Bering on Wednesday
and doesn't get to the eastern Bering until Thursday. Gale force
winds with snow and rain can be expected with the front, with more
rain the further south you go. Behind the front, cold advection
returns, resulting in widespread snow shower activity, which will
impact the western half of the Bering right through into Thursday
night. Late Thursday night, the next low tracking northeastward
along the dying front will begin spreading more rain and snow into
the eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
At the onset of the forecast period, there is a closed low south
of the AKPEN with a ridge axis upstream bisecting the the Chain
and spanning into NE Russia. As time elapses, the ridge axis will
shift eastward and an Arctic vortex will descend from Siberia and
into the Bering. By Day 6 (Monday March 5th) a new ridge will
build in from the North Pacific bringing warmer temperatures to
the Western and Central Aleutians. The GFS has maintained decent
run to run continuity with the major synoptic features. Very
confident in the progressive nature of the pattern. West Domain
(Bering Sea, Aleutians and SW AK) sensible weather highlights
include gale force winds across portions of the Bering in
association with the frontal boundary Saturday and Sunday. East
Domain sensible weather highlights include a batch of wintry
precipitation for Kodiak and the southern Kenai Saturday March 3rd
that will move across the Gulf Of Alaska later Saturday and Sunday
but will remain south of Anchorage. Monday a new batch of wintry
weather is anticipated to impact Kodiak with moisture working its
way up Cook Inlet later Monday.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High Wind Watch 131.
MARINE...Storm Warning 178.
 Gale Warning 119>121 127 128 130>132 150 165 170 172>177 179>181
185.
 Heavy Freezing Spray 130 160.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JA
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JW
LONG TERM...PJS