Gale Warning 158, NWS Anchorage, AK

597 
FZAK51 PAFC 110055
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
355 PM AKST Sat Feb 10 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-111345-
355 PM AKST Sat Feb 10 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A front in the northeastern Gulf moves inland tonight. A second
front enters the western Gulf Sun afternoon and moves to the
northeastern Gulf Mon afternoon. A trough forms over Sitkinak Mon
afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-111345-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
355 PM AKST Sat Feb 10 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming S 25 kt after midnight. Seas
9 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ120-111345-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
355 PM AKST Sat Feb 10 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ121-111345-
Resurrection Bay-
355 PM AKST Sat Feb 10 2018

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.SUN...N wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-111345-
Prince William Sound-
355 PM AKST Sat Feb 10 2018

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-111345-
Port Valdez-
355 PM AKST Sat Feb 10 2018

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-111345-
Valdez Narrows-
355 PM AKST Sat Feb 10 2018

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Snow.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-111345-
Valdez Arm-
355 PM AKST Sat Feb 10 2018

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-111345-
Passage Canal-
355 PM AKST Sat Feb 10 2018

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow and rain.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 15 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-111345-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
355 PM AKST Sat Feb 10 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ131-111345-
Barren Islands East-
355 PM AKST Sat Feb 10 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ132-111345-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
355 PM AKST Sat Feb 10 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind increasing to 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt becoming S 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 13
ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ136-111345-
Chiniak Bay-
355 PM AKST Sat Feb 10 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt becoming SW 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3
ft.
.SUN...S wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3
ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft subsiding to 3 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-111345-
Marmot Bay-
355 PM AKST Sat Feb 10 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-111345-
Shelikof Strait-
355 PM AKST Sat Feb 10 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt becoming S wind 20 kt after midnight. Seas 5
ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ139-111345-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
355 PM AKST Sat Feb 10 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft. Snow.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft. Snow showers.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft building
to 5 ft after midnight. Rain and snow.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.

$$

PKZ140-111345-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
355 PM AKST Sat Feb 10 2018

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Snow showers.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt.  and rain.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt after
midnight. Snow and rain.
.MON...E wind 10 kt.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 10 kt.

$$

PKZ141-111345-
Kachemak Bay-
355 PM AKST Sat Feb 10 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt...except N wind 15 kt near Cook 
Inlet. Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt becoming SE 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
438 PM AKST Fri Feb 9 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
An active pattern continues across the Bering with a broad
long-wave trough spread over the Bering Sea and north Pacific.
The next closed low within the flow is on a northward track just
south of Dutch Harbor today. Moisture-rich southerly flow
streaming from the north Pacific spans across Kodiak Island and
into Southwest Alaska today, with rain and snow being observed
across the majority of the area. Otherwise, the synoptic pattern
remains highly amplified with a ridge centered across the eastern
portion of the mainland, with more dry and clear conditions being
observed over Southcentral.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models remain in good agreement with the synoptic pattern through
Sunday, then begin to struggle with the details regarding the next
system tracking across the AK Pen overnight Sunday into Monday.
There are some important differences between the models in the
evolution and track of this system as it progresses northeastward
through the Gulf Sunday night into Monday. During this time frame,
models are in agreement with a warmer airmass pushing over the
Southern Mainland and briefly moderating the temperatures over the
area. However, confidence remains low as the models continue to
struggle with the timing and precipitation type details as this
system tracks over the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
(Tonight through Sunday)

Upper-level ridging which has been the dominant feature in our
weather the past couple of nights, aiding in fog development,
will continue to slide of to the east overnight before refocusing
its center across the Northeast Pacific on Sunday. With increasing
winds/mixing extending from the Kenai Peninsula northward through
the Anchorage Bowl into the Matanuska valley, fog concerns here
will be minimal with perhaps some localized development in the
tighter valleys where winds may be more sheltered. Still, temporal
and spatial coverage was low enough to preclude it being in the
zone forecasts.

Further east across the Copper River Valley, the ridge will be
directly overhead tonight and area web cams suggest some stratus
off in the distance from Gulkana to McCarthy. Given this has been
prevalent the past couple of days and the ridge overhead, we opted
to keep the previously mentioned patchy fog in the forecast
through Saturday morning, while removing it for the afternoon
hours as southerly winds develop behind the departing ridge.

The next item of interest will be a weakening will be a fairly
potent front currently affecting the AKpen through southwest
Alaska. This front has brought near hurricane force gusts to some
parts of that region. However, the front will be bumping up
against the departing ridge with 500 mb plots showing the
vorticity associated with it elongating while as frontolysis
commences. Still, it'll have enough forcing with it for high end
gales/low end storm force winds to persist through tonight from
the Barren Islands through the Kodiak/Western Gulf area.

Although the actual surface front will approach the Kenai
Peninsula in a weakening state, disturbances crossing the front
aloft will be instrumental in allowing precipitation chances to
spread through the region into the Anchorage Bowl/Matanuska
Valley and along the Gulf coast, decreasing in coverage towards
the Copper River Valley. As for precipitation type, most
locations will likely see snowfall across the interior with some
light accumulations a good bet. The exception to this will be the
lower Cook Inlet, and near the coastal locations where enough
maritime warming should allow for more of a mix to occur. Another
storm system also looks to impact the region just beyond the short
term period.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

The weather front currently bringing strong winds and widespread
precip to most of the region will slowly lift northward tonight
through Saturday. Hazardous blowing snow conditions are occurring
along the Bering coast north of Toksook Bay, and will continue
through the evening. Temperatures have warmed into the 30s across
the Bristol Bay zone and parts of the Kuskokwim Delta, and as
winds slowly shift to more southerly over the weekend these mild
temperatures will continue and will actually spread even further
inland. Meanwhile, the steady precipitation will taper off from
south to north, but shower conditions in the onshore flow will
continue through Sunday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

With the weather front now pushing away from the area and into the
Southwest Mainland, the next storm to impact the region is already
beginning to move northward out of the Pacific toward the central
Aleutians. This storm will struggle to produce more than gale-
force winds, and even these will not be terribly widespread. In
general, temperatures will be warm enough that even on the
west/cold side of the storm (near the Central ALeutians)
temperatures should stay near or above freezing, so even where
snow will be the dominant precipitation type no significant
accumulations are expected. There will be a break between storms
Saturday Night and Sunday, another storm will follow the same
track and impact the Aleutians by Monday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
A change to a warmer pattern remains in store for the beginning
of next week. On Monday, a low pressure system approaches the AK
Pen from the North Pacific and then moves into the eastern Bering
Sea. This system is accompanied by a lot of warm air, which makes
precipitation type a challenge for Monday's forecast. Models have
been somewhat inconsistent with the track of this low as well,
finally coming into some agreement with this morning's 18Z run.
Current forecast brings keeps a more southerly flow aloft, which
indicates a greater chance for precip reaching the lee side of the
mountains. This will also prevent a true snow-eater Chinook in
Southcentral, but some liquid precipitation is expected with
temperatures rising into the 30s at the surface.

On Tuesday and Wednesday, a short wave ridge will move through the
region, temporarily clearing skies first in the eastern Bering,
then over the mainland. This ridge is followed by a series of low
pressure systems that move into the central and western Bering.
Models forecasts have been very inconsistent on these next
systems, so there is little confidence in the forecast past
Wednesday. Still, the pattern looks to remain active through the
end of the week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory 155.
MARINE...Storm 130.
         Gale 120 131 132 136 137 138 139 150 155 160 180.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...TP
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...PD
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...AMD
LONG TERM...LF