Gale Warning 130, NWS Anchorage, AK

780 
FZAK61 PAFC 280018
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
318 PM AKST Tue Feb 27 2018

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-281445-
318 PM AKST Tue Feb 27 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A front pushes into Southeastern Alaska for Wed morning. A 994 mb
low forms along the front at 58N 141W Tue night then deepens to
991 mb near 59N 139W Wed morning before dissipating Wed afternoon.
High pressure enters the Western Gulf Thu morning.

$$

PKZ351-281445-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
318 PM AKST Tue Feb 27 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt increasing to 30 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.WED...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.THU...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft.

$$

PKZ352-281445-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
318 PM AKST Tue Feb 27 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 19 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 20 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

028 
FZAK61 PAFC 281218
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
318 AM AKST Wed Feb 28 2018

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-010230-
318 AM AKST Wed Feb 28 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

High pressure inland combined with a low over the eastern Gulf
will produce strong offshore flow through Wed night. A front 
approaches the southwestern Gulf Fri morning.

$$

PKZ351-010230-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
318 AM AKST Wed Feb 28 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 to 30 kt diminishing to 10 to 20 kt 
in the afternoon. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.FRI...S wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.

$$

PKZ352-010230-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
318 AM AKST Wed Feb 28 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 21 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 to 40 kt diminishing to 20 to 30 kt 
after midnight. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 to 30 kt diminishing to 10 to 20 kt 
in the afternoon. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.FRI...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

966 
FZAK61 PAFC 010006
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
306 PM AKST Wed Feb 28 2018

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-011415-
306 PM AKST Wed Feb 28 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
Northwesterly flow continues in the Gulf through Thursday
afternoon. High pressure moves over the Gulf by Fri afternoon. A 
994 mb low at 51N 158W extends a front into the Western Gulf for 
Fri afternoon.

$$

PKZ351-011415-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
306 PM AKST Wed Feb 28 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 to 30 kt diminishing to up to 20 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...W wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.

$$

PKZ352-011415-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
306 PM AKST Wed Feb 28 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 to 40 kt diminishing to 20 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 to 30 kt diminishing to up to 20 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.FRI...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

200 
FZAK61 PAFC 011211
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
311 AM AKST Thu Mar 1 2018

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-020230-
311 AM AKST Thu Mar 1 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
Northerly flow will diminish as high pressure builds in from the
west through Thu night. A front will enter the southwestern Gulf 
Fri afternoon and remain nearly stationary through Sat morning. 

$$

PKZ351-020230-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
311 AM AKST Thu Mar 1 2018

.TODAY...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...S wind up to 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft.

$$

PKZ352-020230-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
311 AM AKST Thu Mar 1 2018

.TODAY...N wind 15 to 30 kt diminishing to 10 to 20 kt 
in the afternoon. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind up to 15 kt becoming W after midnight. 
Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.SAT...NE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
418 PM AKST Mon Feb 26 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
An upper trough moving east across western Alaska is producing
broad southwesterly flow across Southcentral Alaska. As a result
snow is falling over much of the Cook Inlet to MAT-SU corridor.
Additionally, snow is mixing with freezing rain at times across
the Anchorage Bowl and Matanuska Valley. There is a mixture of
rain and snow over the Southern Kenai Peninsula. Strong westerly
flow aloft across the Alaska range/Aleutian range has set up a
lee side trough over Cook Inlet and the western Gulf. In response,
pressure gradients have intensified and are generating strong
westerly flow over the western Gulf.

Broad and gusty westerly winds with some lingering snow showers
are present over the Southwest Mainland. A Weakening frontal
boundary over the southern Bering Sea is producing gusty Southwest
to westerly winds across the Aleutians with some light rain or
showers.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models in the short term across Southcentral are in relatively
good agreement with the cold advection tonight and pressure/thermal
gradients. Generally will lean toward the high resolution models
across Southcentral. Out west, all models initially have similar
handling of developing storm center tonight through Tuesday
evening. Divergence in solutions occurs after this and it looks
like the GFS/ECWMF become the preferred choice.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Generally will see MVFR-LIFR conditions in snow showers
this evening then becoming VFR overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The snow event for Southcentral has now largely reached the stage
of almost pure orographic driven lift as the main upper shortwave
trough has tracked into the Yukon. Additional snow accumulations
will be rather light and generally less than 2-4" with the
greatest totals in the Matanuska Valley. Snow tapers off after
midnight, and Tuesday will start out dry as strong offshore flow
continues. Cold air advection will also increase with temperatures
falling well below average. Strong gap winds along the coast and
mountain ridges will be the main story Tuesday and Wednesday as
Southcentral remains under the influence of northwest flow.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2: Tuesday and
Wednesday)...
Snow shower activity across Southwest Alaska continues this
afternoon as moisture from the northern Bering moves into the
area and is locally enhanced by the mountains. A weak wave of
moisture will move into Bristol Bay tonight from off the Bering,
which will bring additional steady snowfall to most points from
Dillingham southward, resulting in about 1-3 inches of
accumulation. Colder air will continue to funnel southward
across the area behind it, making for a very brisk and windy
Tuesday, with mountain snow showers likely to persist much of the
day. High pressure builds in Tuesday night, resulting in calming
winds and clearing skies. Essentially all areas from Dillingham
northward will drop below zero Tuesday night as a result.
Wednesday will be a mainly sunny, quiet day area-wide as winds
gradually flip around to the south ahead of the next system. Look
for plentiful high clouds, however.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2: Tuesday
and Wednesday)...
The usual rain and snow showers common across the Bering this
time of year will continue through the night as a weak wave of
steadier precipitation zips across the Pribilofs this evening and
into the Alaska Peninsula late tonight. As much of the Bering goes
under the influence of high pressure and it's associated stratus
on Tuesday, a developing storm over the North Pacific will set its
sights on the western Aleutians. Snow or a rain/snow mix will
begin in the western Aleutians Tuesday morning, transitioning to
all rain during the afternoon as much warmer air moves in behind
the front. Meanwhile, winds of 55-65 mph with higher gusts will
be ongoing at the same time, making for brief blizzard conditions
in the blowing snow. Late Tuesday afternoon and evening, the
center of the low will pass well west of Attu, but the associated
cold air advection will make for hurricane-force gusts from Attu
westward overnight. Sustained winds in that area will be in the
60-70 mph range, with seas exceeding 40 feet west of Attu. Snow
showers will also move into the western Aleutians by early
Wednesday morning as the winds slowly slacken through the day. The
associated warm-turned-occluded front will move eastward into the
central Bering and Aleutians, mainly bringing rain to those
areas. Its eastward progress will be slow, only reaching the
Pribilofs by Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
A trio of mature frontal boundaries will push across the Western/
Central Bering and then move into southwestern Alaska. In each
case, the occlusion and the cold front follow a similar track,
remain intact across the Bering bringing gales and storm force
winds. The GFS has maintained decent run to run continuity with
the major synoptic features. The 12z run of the ECMWF has come
into line with the GFS with regard to the major surface features
and at 500 mb as well as with the precipitation shields. Very
confident that this progressive pattern will yield unsettled
weather across the Bering and the Aleutians most of this forecast
period. However, for the East Domain (which includes Kodiak,
Anchorage and Valdez) the long term forecast is much more
complicated and the confidence level is lower. As each frontal
boundary moves into western AK and begins the process of decay or
frontolysis the models handle the remnant energy different as it
propagates eastward. This is echoed by the NCEP RMOP (Relative
Measure of Predictability) for the ensemble mean forecast over
the East Domain which remains in low confidence territory the
entire forecast period.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory 101 111.
MARINE...Storm Warning 120 130>132 178.
 Gale Warning 119 121 125 127 136>139 141 150 155 173 175>177
185.
 Heavy Freezing Spray 130 160 181.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JA
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JW
LONG TERM...PJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
118 AM AKST TUE FEB 27 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0727 PM     SNOW             3 S RIDGEWAY            60.49N 151.08W
02/26/2018  M8.0 INCH                           AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STORM TOTAL. STILL SNOWING.

0926 PM     SNOW             4 S ANCHORAGE           61.16N 149.89W
02/26/2018  E4.0 INCH                           AK   PUBLIC

0931 PM     SNOW             1 NW GLEN ALPS          61.12N 149.71W
02/26/2018  M2.0 INCH                           AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

1159 PM     SNOW             5 SW ANCHORAGE          61.16N 149.98W
02/26/2018  M4.3 INCH                           AK   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL OF 4.3 INCHES WITH SNOW STARTING ON
            2/25/2018 IN THE LATE EVENING. 4.0 INCHES OF SNOW FELL ON
            2/26/2018. SNOW STILL FALLING.

&&

RANDERSO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
126 AM AKST TUE FEB 27 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1202 AM     SNOW             19 NNW HOPE             61.16N 149.83W
02/27/2018  M4.0 INCH        ANCHORAGE          AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            HEAVIEST SNOW AROUND 11PM ON 2/26/2018. SNOW
            MIXED WITH RAIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

RA