Gale Warning 119, NWS Anchorage, AK

963 
FZAK62 PAFC 181256
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
356 AM AKST Sun Feb 18 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-190230-
356 AM AKST Sun Feb 18 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 960 mb low at 46N 171E moves to 57N 173E at 964 mb tonight. The
low then moves over the Gulf of Anadyr Mon night at 970 mb. A 995
mb low forms near 46N 173E Mon night.

$$

PKZ411-190230-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
356 AM AKST Sun Feb 18 2018

...STORM WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...E wind increasing to 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft building 
to 11 to 19 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 16 to 22 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 18 to 27 ft building to 24 to 33
ft in the afternoon. Rain showers and snow showers.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 18 to 33 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.THU...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ412-190230-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
356 AM AKST Sun Feb 18 2018

...STORM WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 to 25 kt becoming SE 30 to 45 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 10 to 16 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 25 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 40 to 50 kt. Seas 24 to 31 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 22 to 34 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.

$$

PKZ413-190230-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
356 AM AKST Sun Feb 18 2018

...STORM WARNING TODAY AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 to 40 kt increasing to 35 to 50 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 35 to 45 kt. Seas 20 to 26 ft.
.MON...SW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 19 to 30 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 27 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.

$$

PKZ414-190230-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
356 AM AKST Sun Feb 18 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.

$$

563 
FZAK62 PAFC 190015
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
315 PM AKST Sun Feb 18 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-191345-
315 PM AKST Sun Feb 18 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 962 mb low at 50N 174E propels its front across the Bering
through Tue morning. The low moves to 66N 179E at 978 mb Tue
morning. A 992 mb low near 48N 176E on Tue morning moves to 
50N 178E with its front pushed into the Bering for Tue afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-191345-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
315 PM AKST Sun Feb 18 2018

...STORM WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 20 to 32 ft. Snow showers and
rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 21 to 33 ft subsiding to
15 to 28 ft after midnight.
.TUE...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.THU...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.FRI...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ412-191345-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
315 PM AKST Sun Feb 18 2018

...STORM WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 to 45 kt. Seas 16 to 25 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 24 to 32 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 21 to 33 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.

$$

PKZ413-191345-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
315 PM AKST Sun Feb 18 2018

...STORM WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 35 to 45 kt. Seas 20 to 27 ft.
.MON...SW wind 35 to 50 kt diminishing to 30 to 40 kt 
in the afternoon. Seas 20 to 31 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 15 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 14 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 19 ft.

$$

PKZ414-191345-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
315 PM AKST Sun Feb 18 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 30 to 40 kt becoming SW 20 to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.

$$

570 
FZAK62 PAFC 191305
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
405 AM AKST Mon Feb 19 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-200230-
405 AM AKST Mon Feb 19 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 959 mb low at 57N 173E moves over the Gulf of Anadyr this
evening at 968 mb. The associated front lifts over the central 
Bering Tue afternoon. A 993 mb low at 48N 176E tonight moves to 
54N 179E Tue night at 997 mb while the associated front moves over
the eastern Bering.

$$

PKZ411-200230-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
405 AM AKST Mon Feb 19 2018

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 23 to 34 ft. Rain showers and 
snow showers.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 20 to 32 ft subsiding to 14
to 27 ft after midnight.
.TUE...S wind 15 to 30 kt becoming NE in the afternoon. Seas 12 to
20 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.FRI...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ412-200230-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
405 AM AKST Mon Feb 19 2018

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 45 TO 55 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. Seas 22 to
32 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 20 to 33 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft.
.WED...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.THU...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ413-200230-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
405 AM AKST Mon Feb 19 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 35 to 45 kt diminishing to 25 to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 17 to 27 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt becoming S 15 to 25 kt after
midnight. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 14 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.THU...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ414-200230-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
405 AM AKST Mon Feb 19 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 to 40 kt becoming SW 20 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.TUE...S wind 10 to 25 kt becoming SE 20 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 9 to 16 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

305 
FZAK62 PAFC 200008
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
308 PM AKST Mon Feb 19 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-201530-
308 PM AKST Mon Feb 19 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 965 mb Southern Chukotsk low moves to the Chukchi Sea at 981 mb 
with its front pushing into Western Alaska for Tue morning. A 1003
mb North Pacific low drives to 52N 176E at 992 mb Tue morning then
shifts to 64N 172W at 1004 mb Wed afternoon. The associated front
splits the Bering by Wed afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-201530-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
308 PM AKST Mon Feb 19 2018

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 to 50 kt diminishing to 25 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 16 to 31 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 to 30 kt becoming NE in the afternoon. Seas 11 to
19 ft. Snow.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft. Snow showers and
rain showers.
.WED...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.FRI...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ412-201530-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
308 PM AKST Mon Feb 19 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 20 to 34 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft. Snow.
.WED...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.THU...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

PKZ413-201530-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
308 PM AKST Mon Feb 19 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt becoming S 15 to 25 kt after
midnight. Seas 16 to 24 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 15 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.THU...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ414-201530-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
308 PM AKST Mon Feb 19 2018

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.TUE...SE wind up to 20 kt increasing to 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 9 to 16 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
954 AM AKST Sat Feb 17 2018

.UPDATE...

We updated the forecast for the SW Alaska zones for Sunday to
include slight chance for freezing rain wording in the forecast
package. Strong warm advection aloft will contribute to an above
freezing layer between 2000 and 5500 feet seen in area point
soundings, while surface progs show a below freezing profile with
enough of a dewpoit depression to allow for further cooling due to
web-bulb cooling as the precipitation begins to saturate the low
levels. Any freezing rain should be short-lived, perhaps a few
hours, with accumulations minimal enough to preclude an advisory.

&&

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A high amplitude long wave ridge is currently over the western
third of the mainland and moving east over southcentral bringing
rather tranquil weather to the southern half of the state.
Clearing skies and rather weak offshore winds have lead to the
development of low stratus and fog over the Knik Arm and Anchorage
Bowl early this morning. Further west, satellite imagery shows a
broad cirrus shield advecting north and east over the top of the
ridge out ahead of a longwave trough which is located over the
western Bering Sea. A strong southerly jet is currently moving
over the central and eastern Aleutians supporting a surface low in
the Bering. A front out ahead of the low is sweeping east across
the island chain bringing storm force winds and heavy rain to
places like Dutch Harbor and Akutan.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models remain in good agreement through the mid-term as a front
moves across SW Alaska Sunday morning then falls apart as it
reaches southcentral by Sunday night. All models have now come
into agreement that as the front reaches southcentral the main
lobe of energy will split off from the trough and form a weak
surface low in the Gulf, keeping most of the precipitation well
south of southcentral.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Clear skies and weak flow have led to the re-development
of low stratus over the Knik Arm early this morning, which has
advected into the Anchorage Bowl, staying mostly over south and
west Anchorage so far. Webcams show the stratus to be patchy in
nature so only expect intermittent LIFR conditions over the
terminal this morning before clearing up by noon.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
An upper level ridge will slowly move eastward across southern
Alaska through tonight. The low level flow is fairly weak inland,
and some fog is expected, especially near Cook Inlet. On Sunday
an upper level trough will move through the ridge. This will bring
rain to Kodiak Island beginning around noon and ending some time
in the evening. Precipitation chances are less further north, but
there is at least a slight chance Sunday evening for the Cook
inlet area through the Susitna Valley. This system will rapidly
move east, exiting into Canada Monday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

A high amplitude upper level pattern is in the midst of developing
this morning as ridging aloft builds over Southwest Alaska. Dry
offshore flow will be dominant today and this evening before the
warm front over the Bering Sea moves inland tonight and moves
eastward through Sunday. Enough cold air will be in place for at
least some snow across most of Southwest Alaska although rain will
likely mix in, especially along the immediate coast line and in
the lee of the large mountain ranges. The heaviest snow
accumulations will be from Dillingham north and west where 2 to 5
inches of snowfall is possible. The front clears the Alaska Range
Sunday evening with dry conditions remaining through the daytime
Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

The storm track will remain over the Bering Sea for the
foreseeable future as a strong gale force front this morning moves
east toward the Southwest Alaska coast. Gusts along the Eastern
Aleutians will reach into the low 60 MPH range, especially in
favored gaps with southerly winds.

A large gale force low (with some storm force winds mixed in)
over the Western Aleutians will move into the Bering Sunday and
will remain over the Bering Sea through Monday as it slowly tracks
northward toward the Bering Strait. Long fetch southwest winds
behind the low will support sea states as high as 30-35 feet on
Monday and Monday evening over the Bering Sea outer waters.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

Long term period starts off with increased uncertainty due to
models suddenly diverging with the movement of the low across
Southcentral Alaska and the Gulf of Alaska. Most reasonable
approach to Sunday night through Monday is to nudge precipitation
chances down over most of Southcentral Alaska and increase them
some in the Gulf. The Bering Sea storm at that same time frame
seems to still be on track with a deep low in the western Bering
Sea and general south to southwest flow over most of the Bering
Sea into Southwest mainland Alaska. After Monday, there is still a
high likelihood that there will be a general progressive pattern
over that region with a high amplitude upper level ridge building
over the mainland part of the state which will usher in warmer
temperatures. This ridge looks to get displaced later in the week
by a trough and hence the progressive pattern. The big
uncertainty remains the timing of these features as models have
not been consistent with one another or even with themselves on a
run-to-run basis. So what does all this mean for the sensible
weather next week? A warm up for the middle of the week with a
chance of precipitation. Precipitation type may be mixed for
inland areas in both Southwest and Southcentral Alaska mid-week so
that will be something to keep an eye on.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Storms: 173 175
Gales: 150 155 160 165 170 171 172 174 176-181 185 411-414 .

&&

UPDATE...PD
SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KVP
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JA
LONG TERM...EZ