Gale Warning 115, NWS Anchorage, AK

761 
FZAK62 PAFC 140030
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
330 PM AKST Tue Feb 13 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-141400-
330 PM AKST Tue Feb 13 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A front associated with a low near the Kamchatka Peninsula will 
stretch across the Bering Sea from 53N 170W to 65N 170W. It will move
onshore Wednesday morning. Wednesday afternoon a 991 mb low will 
enter the Bering near 51N 178W. This low will strengthen to 988 mb 
and move to 59N 175W by Thursday afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-141400-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
330 PM AKST Tue Feb 13 2018

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 17 to 22 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 to 30 kt becoming S up to 20 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 13 to 20 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind up to 20 kt becoming NW 15 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Snow.
.THU...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 14 to 21 ft.
.SUN...SE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ412-141400-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
330 PM AKST Tue Feb 13 2018

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 17 to 21 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft. Rain with snow.
.THU...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.

$$

PKZ413-141400-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
330 PM AKST Tue Feb 13 2018

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 15 to 20 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt except NW 20 to 35 kt W of 178W after
midnight. Seas 9 to 16 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.

$$

PKZ414-141400-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
330 PM AKST Tue Feb 13 2018

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Snow and rain.
.WED...SW wind 10 to 25 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 8 to 
16 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Rain.
.THU...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

599 
FZAK62 PAFC 141209
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
309 AM AKST Wed Feb 14 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-150230-
309 AM AKST Wed Feb 14 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
An Eastern Bering front moves to the Gulf of Alaska Thu morning. 
A 992 mb North Pacific low moves to 58N 179E at 980 mb for midday 
Thu continuing to the Gulf of Anadyr at 989 mb with its front moving 
into Western Alaska Fri morning. A 964 mb North Pacific low pushes a 
front over the Western Aleutians Fri morning.

$$

PKZ411-150230-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
309 AM AKST Wed Feb 14 2018

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 to 30 kt becoming S up to 20 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 12 to 18 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind up to 20 kt becoming NW 15 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Snow.
.THU...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ412-150230-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
309 AM AKST Wed Feb 14 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 13 to 18 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 16 ft. Snow and rain.
.THU...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ413-150230-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
309 AM AKST Wed Feb 14 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft. Rain with snow.
.THU...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 21 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 13 to 20 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

PKZ414-150230-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
309 AM AKST Wed Feb 14 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Rain.
.THU...S wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.

$$

231 
FZAK62 PAFC 150003
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
303 PM AKST Wed Feb 14 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-151400-
303 PM AKST Wed Feb 14 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 984 mb low near 49N 180 moves to 59N 178W Thu afternoon, then 
moves into Russia late Thu night. A front moves into the western 
Aleutians Thu afternoon...then moves into the central Aleutians 
and Bering by Fri afternoon. A 986 mb low develops along the front
near 51N 178E early Fri morning...then moves to 57N 179E Fri 
afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-151400-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
303 PM AKST Wed Feb 14 2018

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind up to 20 kt becoming NW 15 to 30 kt 
after midnight. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Snow.
.THU...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 18 to 24 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.MON...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.

$$

PKZ412-151400-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
303 PM AKST Wed Feb 14 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 16 ft. Snow and rain.
.THU...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 18 to 23 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.

$$

PKZ413-151400-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
303 PM AKST Wed Feb 14 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft. Rain with snow.
.THU...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 21 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 30 kt becoming S 30 to 45 kt after
midnight. Seas 13 to 20 ft. Snow.
.FRI...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

PKZ414-151400-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
303 PM AKST Wed Feb 14 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Rain.
.THU...S wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.

$$

834 
FZAK62 PAFC 151254
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
354 AM AKST Thu Feb 15 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-160245-
354 AM AKST Thu Feb 15 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 979 mb low at 55N 179E moves over the Gulf of Anadyr at 987 mb
tonight and then moves inland. A front in the central Bering
remains nearly stationary through Fri night.

$$

PKZ411-160245-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
354 AM AKST Thu Feb 15 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.  and rain
showers.
.FRI...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 17 to 23 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.MON...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ412-160245-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
354 AM AKST Thu Feb 15 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 26 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 to 45 kt becoming S 25 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 16 to 28 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 14 to 26 ft. Snow and widespread
rain showers.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 19 to 27 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ413-160245-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
354 AM AKST Thu Feb 15 2018

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 18 to 25 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft. Snow showers and
widespread rain showers.
.FRI...S wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 17 to 27 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 26 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

PKZ414-160245-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
354 AM AKST Thu Feb 15 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 to 40 kt becoming S 20 to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
405 PM AKST Mon Feb 12 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The warm upper level ridge has drifted over Southeast Alaska which
brought the jet stream over Prince William Sound this morning and
it is slowly moving eastward. The upper level trough is over
Southwest mainland Alaska and tracking eastward in progressive
upper level flow as a low amplitude ridge is over the central
Bering Sea. This ridge is expected to amplify as it heads eastward
tomorrow.
At the surface there is a weak low in northern Cook Inlet which
has been the catalyst for downslope winds today over the Anchorage
area. This low should move eastward into Prince William Sound
this evening and move quickly eastward. This change in low
location will also start gusty outflow winds over the north Gulf
Coast.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
While models remain in good overall synoptic agreement until
late in the week, there are enough uncertainties to keep a degree
of uncertainty to the forecasts. The biggest questions arise in
the Bering Sea for middle to late in the week as there is
significant differences in the track of two different lows. Models
all recognize the lows but tracks remain hundreds of miles apart.
The short term challenges concentrate on winds in Turnagain Arm
and the upper Cook Inlet region this evening and the way the
pattern transitions to gusty northerly winds along the Gulf coast
tomorrow. Higher resolution models, especially the NAMnest, are
performing best with this effort.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Southeast winds and the warming they bring with the
downslope effect has been the story for PANC today. These winds
should diminish late this afternoon and become more southerly.
When this happens it should allow a period of snow to move into
the area and lower ceilings and visibilities. The issue is whether
there is any precipitation still moving through by the time this
occurs. There is also the chance of fog to develop early tomorrow
morning. While there may be enough residual cloud cover to keep it
from developing, the warmer and wet conditions certainly increase
the chance of fog.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
As has been the case since yesterday, the primary forecast
challenge this evening will be with Southcentral precip type as
the southeasterly winds diminish, which should allow for
temperatures aloft to begin to fall cold enough to support snow.
The challenge lies in determining how quickly this occurs, which
none of the models have been capturing this very well by
diminishing the winds and switching over to snow too quickly. At
this point we expect a rain/snow mix to continue over much of the
area until the early evening when the winds aloft should die off
enough to bring accumulating snow to the surface. Since this is
much slower than initially expected (snow was initially expected
to start by this afternoon), accumulation up to 2 inches expected.
With this being such a complex forecast challenge, confidence in
the exact timing of the snow transition and accumulations is low,
though there is reasonable confidence that at least some snow
should fall before the upper trough axis passes over late this
evening. Further north over the Susitna Valley the Winter Weather
Advisory continues until 9 pm this evening, though the remaining
snowfall will be noticeably higher than what fell last night and
this morning.

The general trend for the entire area will be for improving
conditions from west-east after midnight as the upper trough axis
passes overhead. This should allow for clearing skies and
temperatures falling back below freezing for the Anchorage Metro,
while further east into the Copper River Basin and Valdez/Thompson
Pass areas will see an additional few inches of snowfall until
Tuesday morning. Beginning Tuesday morning as the surface low
moves into the Eastern Gulf, gap winds will increase throughout
the North Gulf Coast, along with strong winds and blowing snow
through Thompson Pass. Since reports from Thompson Pass from this
storm so far have been relatively light (around 6"), the blowing
snow is not expected to cause a significant reduction to
visibilities, and should quickly diminish as the pressure gradient
diminishes Tuesday evening. Wednesday then looks like a generally
quiet day for much of the area as a brief ridge of high pressure
moves in, with no precipitation expected until shortwave brings a
chance of light snow back into the Susitna Valley for the evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2: Tuesday and
Wednesday)...

The last of the snow showers across Southwest Alaska are ending
and becoming confined to the western slopes of the Kuskokwim and
Alaska Ranges this evening. A brief break in the precipitation is
expected overnight into Tuesday morning through Bristol Bay and
the Lower Kuskokwim Valley. Meanwhile for the Kuskokwim Delta
precipitation associated with the next front will already be
making its way into the area before sunrise Tuesday. Any warm air
associated with the front will have long occluded out, so the
dominant precipitation type with the front will be snow,
especially early in the morning.

On Tuesday, rising temperatures through the day may cause the
snow to mix with or occasionally change over to rain during the
afternoon. Regardless, above freezing surface temperatures for
much of the day will diminish the threat for much accumulation. At
times however, the snow may be heavy enough to produce light
accumulations in the morning. For the rest of Southwest Alaska,
the slowing eastward movement of the front means that
precipitation will take a long time spreading into Bristol Bay.
In fact, outside of the occasional rain or snow shower, points
from Dillingham eastward are not expected to get very much
precipitation at all on Tuesday.

The stalled front will continue precipitation throughout the
Kuskokwim Valley, Delta, and west of Dillingham overnight Tuesday
night. Gradually cooling air should turn most areas back over to
all snow Tuesday evening, with additional accumulations on the
order of 1-3 inches expected overnight in the aforementioned
areas. The front will steadily weaken overnight, so snowfall rates
should diminish with time. A few lingering snow showers will
continue into the day Wednesday, particularly along the Kuskokwim
Mountains and the lower Kuskokwim Valley. Some clearing is
possible by Wednesday evening, particularly the further south and
west you are.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2: Tuesday
and Wednesday)...

The primary hazardous weather across the Bering and Aleutians is
expected overnight tonight in association with a strong front
moving eastward across the Aleutians. As the front moves into the
central Aleutians overnight, additional upper level energy will
translate into developing storm force winds in addition to light
to moderate rain. Adak, Atka, and the surrounding areas will all
be impacted by the storm force winds with gusts of 60-70 mph. The
front will rapidly weaken as it moves into the eastern Bering and
Aleutians on Tuesday, though gusts exceeding 50 mph with 20-30
foot seas will still be common. Colder air moving in behind the
front through the western and northern Bering Tuesday will result
in scattered to numerous snow showers developing across that
region with small craft advisory winds and seas common. The
stalled front over the eastern Bering will persist through Tuesday
night, with ongoing widespread showers continuing over much of
the rest of the Bering.

On Wednesday, a new low will develop south of the western and
central Aleutians and move into that part of the chain during the
day, with a rain/snow mix expected in association with it. Winds
ahead of the low look to be only in the 25-35 kt range, though
stronger gales will move into the area behind the low Wednesday
night.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
A weak trough will cross Southcentral Alaska Wednesday night. A
ridge will build behind this trough, over southwest Alaska on
Wednesday night and then into Southcentral on Thursday. An upper
low over the central Aleutians Wednesday night will move quickly
into the central Bering by Thursday afternoon. This low will then
push into southwest Alaska on Friday, weakening and then racing
across the Gulf. A large ridge will then build over mainland
Alaska late Friday, keeping the area protected from any weather
systems through Saturday. Another Bering system will push into
southwest Alaska on Sunday, and then weaken and/or dissipate as it
moves across Southcentral Sunday night into the fairly strong
ridge. By this time the models differ on the timing and details of
this system and various systems over the Bering and Aleutians.
They do, however, agree fairly well on the over-all synoptic
situation for early next week with a ridge over the northeast
Pacific and most of the mainland, and a deep trough over the
Bering Sea and Aleutians.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory 145.
MARINE...Storm 130 131 173 175 176 177 178.
         Gale 120 121 125 132 138 165 170 172 174 179
              180 181 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DEK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JW
LONG TERM...BL