Gale Warning 109, NWS Anchorage, AK

885 
FZAK62 PAFC 090002
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
302 PM AKST Thu Feb 8 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-091430-
302 PM AKST Thu Feb 8 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 993 mb low at 53N 171W will move into the western Bering Fri
morning. A 976 mb North Pacific low will move to 49N 168W Fri
afternoon then it will move to 53N 166W at 980 mb Sat morning.

$$

PKZ411-091430-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
302 PM AKST Thu Feb 8 2018

.TODAY...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind up to 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 15 to 20 ft.

$$

PKZ412-091430-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
302 PM AKST Thu Feb 8 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt becoming E up to 15 kt after
midnight. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.MON...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ413-091430-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
302 PM AKST Thu Feb 8 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 to 35 kt except NW 10 to 20 kt W of 176W. Seas 8 
to 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.MON...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ414-091430-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
302 PM AKST Thu Feb 8 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 to 40 kt diminishing to 20 to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 9 to 16 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.MON...SE wind up to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

547 
FZAK62 PAFC 091214
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
314 AM AKST Fri Feb 9 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-100215-
314 AM AKST Fri Feb 9 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A front over the eastern Bering edges into western Alaska through
Sun morning. A 977 mb low at 46N 169W moves to 57N 173W at 995 mb by
Sun morning. The associated front extends across Bristol Bay into 
the northern Gulf of Alaska for Sun morning.

$$

PKZ411-100215-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
314 AM AKST Fri Feb 9 2018

.TODAY...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...W wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 17 to 22 ft.

$$

PKZ412-100215-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
314 AM AKST Fri Feb 9 2018

.TODAY...E wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.SUN...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.

$$

PKZ413-100215-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
314 AM AKST Fri Feb 9 2018

.TODAY...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.

$$

PKZ414-100215-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
314 AM AKST Fri Feb 9 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt diminishing to up to 20 kt after
midnight. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SAT...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
422 PM AKST Wed Feb 7 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A broad upper ridge was located over the mainland with a trough
stretching from the Canadian Yukon to over the north Gulf Coast.
Stratus and fog with subsidence under the ridge formed over Cook
Inlet/Turnagain Arm, Anchorage Bowl, Matanuska Valley, and across
the Copper River Basin. The upper trough helped support a surface
trough along the North Gulf Coast and continued gap flows over the
eastern Kenai Peninsula and North Gulf.

Out west, a fairly broad upper trough with several smaller waves
embedded in the long wave pattern was evident over the Aleutians
and Bering Sea. At the surface, a 977 mb low over the central
Bering Sea is heading north with its associated frontal boundary
extending south to just west of Unalaska. Gale force with some
storm gusts are observed along and to the east of the frontal
boundary over the eastern Aleutians and east Bering Sea.
Temperatures along the boundary were warm enough to keep the
precipitation predominately as rain. Further west, brisk westerly
winds were observed over the western and central Aleutians with
rain showers.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models overall across the Gulf and Southcentral Alaska are in
relatively good agreement. Models are still struggling some over
the Aleutians/Bering Sea through Friday with the placement of low
centers. The silver lining however is that the general position
of the baroclinic zone is fairly consistent across model
solutions.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Low clouds and fog may lift some this evening but should
bring back/continue IFR to LIFR visibilities across the airport
complex through VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Skies are mostly clear across the region...with the exception of
low clouds and fog that are stuck around Upper Cook Inlet and the
Mat-Su Valleys, and some in the Copper River basin. These low
clouds are trapped beneath a strengthening temperature inversion
as high pressure and warming temperatures aloft move into the area
from the west. Thus, while some breaks have developed late this
afternoon, the expectation is that fog and stratus will persist
through the night. Meanwhile, gusty outflow winds with fairly weak
cold-air advection are occurring around Prince William Sound and
along the north Gulf Coast (Copper River Delta). These winds will
peak tonight as a shortwave dropping southward across the area
begins to move away.

By Friday, a front moving up from the south will bring a rain/snow
mix to Kodiak with winds from the east and rising temperatures.
The rest of the area will see some high clouds moving in Friday
afternoon, but still experience a mostly sunny day with moderate
temperatures overall.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Overnight low temperatures continue to be the main forecast
dilemma. Visible satellite imagery continues to show low-level
stratus persists across much of southwest Alaska, with some
thinning noted. Meanwhile, upper-level cirrus continues to
overspread the region from the southwest, ahead of a Bering Sea
front. Subtle warm advection at 850mb will also continue to
strengthen the inversion as high pressure strengthens across the
region through Friday morning. All of this points to warmer
overnight lows, yet the majority of model guidance wants to cool
these temperatures several degrees. Given the synoptic pattern
this made little sense, with little changes made to the current
forecast, as it's a good compromise between the two.

Otherwise, look for offshore flow to continue through the next
couple of days, with the main item of interest being a surface
front that will affect the area by Friday morning. Winds will
increase as the front approaches, with coastal locations and
higher elevations seeing the strongest wind gusts. Precipitation
potential will also be on the rise as the front draws near.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
More of the same can be expected, as a stagnant pattern will
persists through the end of the work week. Overall, look for deep
troughing to remain in place across the western Bering into the
northwest Pacific. Several surface lows will eject northward
across the region in the deep southerly flow, with a surface front
gradually edging eastward through the region. The strongest winds
and best precipitation potential will be tied to this front, with
the eastern Bering/Aleutians/AKpen being in the cross hairs for
this. Temperatures will be warm enough for precipitation to remain
in the liquid variety for most areas. The exception to this will
be the western Bering and Aleutians, where enough cold advection
on the backside of the departing lows will keep snow as the
dominant type. Another area is for northern portions of the sea,
where cold air will remain more entrenched for periodic switches
in precipitation type to occur.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
Saturday will be a day the pattern is shifting to a warmer one
over Southcentral and Southwest Alaska due to an amplifying upper
level ridge along the West coast of North America. The low in the
Bering Sea will push into this ridge over the weekend and start a
somewhat progressive upper level pattern over the state for next
week. Models are struggling quite a bit with the progressive
pattern, but in spite of the noise, it looks like we can get a
reasonable idea as to where the longwaves will set up and those
will be the basis for everything else. In general, the highly
amplified ridge/trough pattern has been dampened a bit on the long
term guidance which is to keep the forecast from fluctuating too
far as some of the details become more clear. This will also keep
a lot of 'chance of' POPs to remain in the long term forecast.

Overall, next week will be much more mild with many locations
experiencing temperatures above freezing. Precipitation type will be
an issue with this situation, and the details will not come into
focus until we get closer to these systems moving through the
area.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning 127 132 138 150 155 160 165 170>172 179>181
                    185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...AD
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PD
LONG TERM...EZ