Gale Warning 10, NWS Anchorage, AK

181 
FZAK62 PAFC 101219
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
319 AM AKST Wed Jan 10 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-110145-
319 AM AKST Wed Jan 10 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 968 mb low at 51N 166E will move to 51N 174W at 966 mb tonight
then it will dissipate near 48N 170W at 967 mb Fri morning. A 964
mb low develops near 48N 160W Fri morning.

$$

PKZ411-110145-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
319 AM AKST Wed Jan 10 2018

.TODAY...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 18 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.

$$

PKZ412-110145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
319 AM AKST Wed Jan 10 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 15 ft.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.
.SUN...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ413-110145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
319 AM AKST Wed Jan 10 2018

.TODAY...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 15 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 17 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ414-110145-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
319 AM AKST Wed Jan 10 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SUN...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.

$$

421 
FZAK62 PAFC 102355
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
255 PM AKST Wed Jan 10 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-111345-
255 PM AKST Wed Jan 10 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 963 mb low at 49N 173W moves to 51N 168W at 958 mb for Thu 
afternoon then shifts to 49N 166W at 964 mb by Fri afternoon. The 
associated front will sweep across the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska 
Peninsula through Fri afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-111345-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
255 PM AKST Wed Jan 10 2018

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 14 to 18 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 to 16 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ412-111345-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
255 PM AKST Wed Jan 10 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 16 ft.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 to 15 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 to 17 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 12 to 16 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.
.SUN...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.MON...SW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ413-111345-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
255 PM AKST Wed Jan 10 2018

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 17 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SAT...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ414-111345-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
255 PM AKST Wed Jan 10 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 to 14 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft.
.FRI...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.

$$

069 
FZAK62 PAFC 111236
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
336 AM AKST Thu Jan 11 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-120315-
336 AM AKST Thu Jan 11 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 960 mb low at 50N 168W will move to 50N 167W at 962 mb Fri
morning. A second low will move to 50N 155W at 960 mb Fri afternoon 
then it will move to 51N 161W at 957 mb Sat morning. A third low 
develops in the southwestern Gulf Sat morning. 

$$

PKZ411-120315-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
336 AM AKST Thu Jan 11 2018

.TODAY...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 18 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ412-120315-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
336 AM AKST Thu Jan 11 2018

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 to 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 to 17 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 13 to 16 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.MON...NW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ413-120315-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
336 AM AKST Thu Jan 11 2018

.TODAY...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 17 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SAT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ414-120315-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
336 AM AKST Thu Jan 11 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.FRI...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

325 
FZAK62 PAFC 120014
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
314 PM AKST Thu Jan 11 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-121330-
314 PM AKST Thu Jan 11 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 960 mb low near 51N 168W will drop southward into the North
Pacific and weaken through Fri. A front along the Alaska Peninsula
and Eastern Aleutians will weaken as it slowly tracks north and 
west across the Bering Sea through Sat.

$$

PKZ411-121330-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
314 PM AKST Thu Jan 11 2018

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 to 18 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ412-121330-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
314 PM AKST Thu Jan 11 2018

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 to 17 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 14 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.SUN...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ413-121330-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
314 PM AKST Thu Jan 11 2018

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 to 16 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 14 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SAT...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ414-121330-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
314 PM AKST Thu Jan 11 2018

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt becoming 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 to 12 
ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.TUE...NW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
521 AM AKST Tue Jan 9 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

An upper level col is located over the western Gulf this morning.
A col is the meeting point between two ridges to the north and
south, and two troughs to the east and west. It is characterized
by very light winds, and as such there remains very little
movement in the upper level flow this morning. Across mainland
Alaska, we continue to have clockwise, dry northeasterly flow
across the area, keeping things quiet, though there are still some
fog issues remaining near Anchorage and over Southwest.
Increasingly colder air continues to make its way southwest out of
the Yukon into the Copper River Basin.

Across Southwest Alaska and the Bering, the story continues to be
a sprawling vertically-stacked low centered near Adak, which has
been largely stationary for the past 24 hours or so. The low is
not a cold one by any means, and so temperatures everywhere west
of the Alaska Range continue to run at or above average. The
winds have been slowly diminishing with time as the associated
frontal systems fall apart. Precipitation associated with the low
for the most part has stayed over the Bering and from the Alaska
Peninsula west, though some light precipitation with the dying
front may impact coastal communities in Southwest Alaska today.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

The models are once again in very good agreement over the next
couple days, as the low over the Aleutians decays and merges with
additional impulses of energy moving towards it in the flow. Most
of the models are also picking up on a much weaker low developing
south of the Gulf, and moving northwest along a front to the south
of Kodiak. The NAM is quite a bit faster than the other models
moving that second low towards Chirikof Island, so it was
discarded after about 24 hours. Forecast confidence remains high.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist. Fog is present
along the mountains, and is expected to remain there until
dissipation later this morning. Dry, down-Inlet winds should
prevent fog development tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2...Tue and
Wed)...
The widespread fog/stratus that has plagued the Cook Inlet region
over the past few days is quickly diminishing this morning as cold
and dry air begins to work into the region. This surge of cold
air, along with the pressure gradient from a weak low in the
Northern Gulf will bring strong and gusty outflow winds,
especially to the Matanuska Valley, Valdez, and Copper River Delta
areas. This gradient will slowly weaken this afternoon, allowing
for winds throughout the area to diminish by this evening, but
these winds should provide enough mixing and dry air to prevent
the redevelopment of fog/stratus in Cook Inlet tonight. The most
noticeable impact of weaker winds and clear skies tonight will be
with overnight temperatures which are expected to fall to near-
below zero in many areas of Southcentral to near 40 below in the
Copper River Basin. This will however be a brief shot of cold air
as a westerly moving low in the Northern Gulf brings cloudcover
and warmer temperatures back into the region. This low will also
bring a chance of snow to the North Gulf Coast through Wednesday
night. For interior Southcentral, with easterly downsloping and
flow down Cook Inlet there is very good agreement that this will
system will bring increased clouds, slightly warmer temperatures,
but no snowfall expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
(Today through Thursday)

Much of the Kuskokwim Delta lies between a mid-level ridge
centered over Norton Sound, and a low over the Central Aleutians.
Closer to the surface, the pressure gradient is modestly tight,
which has allowed a continued transport of colder air from the
central portions of the state in an offshore flow pattern. This
has been fairly efficient draining down the valleys, as Sleetmute
is currently approaching -20, with Bethel and New Stuyahok is
just a few degrees above zero. This type of pattern looks to
remain in place through the next 36 to 48 hours, with perhaps just
a few snow showers affecting the Bristol Bay region, as
disturbances rotate northwestward around a central Aleutians low.

Things start to get a little more interesting by Thursday, as
another low moves into the southern Aleutian waters, sending a
surface front northward. Scattered precipitation will accompany
this front as it moves north through the area, while allowing the
winds to become more easterly north of Bristol Bay, and
southeasterly towards the AK Pen, allowing temperatures to
moderate some.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...
(Today through Thursday)

The persistent area of low pressure which has taken up residence
just south of the Central Aleutians will continue to meander in
place through tomorrow morning, with vort maxes rotating around it
providing showery type precipitation to much of the Bering and
Aleutians. A stray thunderstorm or two can't be ruled out either
for locations from False Pass to Sand Point southward where
sporadic lightning strikes have been detected, within 15 miles of
these locations, and further south across the southern coastal
waters into the North Pacific. This has been the result of one of
the afore-mentioned vort maxes, with model progs showing decent
instability for this time of year. Any thunderstorm concerns look
to end by early afternoon though, as the disturbance lifts north
of the region with weak subsidence likely in its wake.

Heading into Wednesday and Thursday, the resident low will get
absorbed into a stronger system moving in from the west. This
system too looks to trek south of the chain, with the net affect
being winds increasing to gale force for the waters, and
precipitation coverage and intensity increasing once again as the
associated surface front lifts northeast across the region.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

As we get into the long term period on Thursday, the upper level
pattern over the state will be in the midst of a change. Thursday
will start off with the upper level high just offshore the Arctic
coast with the main upper level low just south of Dutch Harbor.
This will start the mild south-to-southeast flow once again over
mainland Alaska with east-to-northeast flow over the Bering Sea.
The jet stream will remain running west-to-east well south of the
Aleutian Islands and Gulf of Alaska. As the weekend arrives the
low in the Aleutians will remain in the general area, but the
upper level ridge will shift over Canada and a jet streak will
move south of the low, through the Gulf of Alaska and then around
the northern periphery of the ridge in the Yukon. The result will
be for a noticeable warm up in temperatures with the potential
for Chinook winds in Southcentral and/or Southwest Alaska over the
weekend.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning 127 130 170 171 177.
         Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 139 140 160 180 181.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JPW
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DEK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PD
LONG TERM...KH