Brisk Wind Advisory 8, NWS Anchorage, AK

227 
FZAK52 PAFC 121224
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
324 AM AKST Mon Feb 12 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-130130-
324 AM AKST Mon Feb 12 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A front over the Alaska Peninsula enters the Gulf of Alaska Mon
afternoon. A 956 mb Kamchatka low extends a front that pushes into 
the Eastern Aleutians by Wed morning. A 987 mb North Pacific low 
moves to 435 nm South of Shemya for Wed morning.


$$

PKZ150-130130-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
324 AM AKST Mon Feb 12 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ155-130130-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
324 AM AKST Mon Feb 12 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ160-130130-
Bristol Bay-
324 AM AKST Mon Feb 12 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas
in ice free waters 9 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.

$$

PKZ165-130130-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
324 AM AKST Mon Feb 12 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt becoming S 35 kt after midnight. 
From Port Moller E, W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...S wind 40 kt except S 30 kt from Port Moller E. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ170-130130-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
324 AM AKST Mon Feb 12 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt increasing to 45 kt after midnight.
Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...S wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ171-130130-
Unalaska Bay-
324 AM AKST Mon Feb 12 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft building to 4 ft after midnight.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow and rain.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-130130-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
324 AM AKST Mon Feb 12 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft subsiding to 10 ft in the
afternoon.
.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...S wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ173-130130-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
324 AM AKST Mon Feb 12 2018

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt becoming S 35 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 50 kt. Seas 16 ft building to 22 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 45 kt. Seas 22 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.FRI...S wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ174-130130-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
324 AM AKST Mon Feb 12 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt becoming S 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
11 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft building to 23 ft after
midnight.
.TUE...S wind 45 kt. Seas 27 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft.

$$

PKZ175-130130-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
324 AM AKST Mon Feb 12 2018

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 45 kt. Seas 10 ft building to 16 ft in the
afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 50 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI...S wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ176-130130-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
324 AM AKST Mon Feb 12 2018

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 35 kt increasing to 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas
13 ft building to 19 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...S wind 50 kt. Seas 30 ft. Rain.
.TUE...W wind 45 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
28 ft subsiding to 21 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.THU...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 30 ft.
.FRI...S wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.

$$

PKZ177-130130-
Adak to Kiska-
324 AM AKST Mon Feb 12 2018

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 50 kt. Seas 26 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 55 kt diminishing to 35 kt after midnight.
Bering side, seas 27 ft subsiding to 21 ft after midnight. Pacific 
side, seas 32 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.WED...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.THU...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.FRI...S wind 35 kt. Seas 26 ft.

$$

PKZ178-130130-
Kiska to Attu-
324 AM AKST Mon Feb 12 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 45 kt becoming SW 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 23 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 27 ft. Snow showers.
.TUE...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 26 ft. Snow showers.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.WED...N wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU...S wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 28 ft.

$$

PKZ179-130130-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
324 AM AKST Mon Feb 12 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 13 ft building to 22 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 45 kt becoming SW 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 26 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ180-130130-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
324 AM AKST Mon Feb 12 2018

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft.
.TUE...S wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 12 ft. Snow and rain.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 13 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.

$$

PKZ181-130130-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
324 AM AKST Mon Feb 12 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight.
.TUE...S wind 35 kt. Snow.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt.
.WED...S wind 20 kt.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE wind 20 kt.

$$

PKZ185-130130-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
324 AM AKST Mon Feb 12 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E of Saint Matthew Island, W wind 20 kt. W of Saint
Matthew Island, SW wind 25 kt becoming S 35 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft building to 22 ft after
midnight. Snow and rain.
.TUE...S wind 40 kt becoming SW 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 23
ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
500 AM AKST Sun Feb 11 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

There is a shortwave ridge axis moving east across the ALCAN as a
shortwave trough lifts northeast across Southern Alaska. This
trough is supporting a mixed bag of precipitation with mainly snow
over interior locations of Southcentral and mixed rain/snow along
the coasts. Current Kenai radar imagery clearly depicts the back
edge of this trough axis quickly moving up Cook Inlet, and The
parent low is over the Bering Sea, with the strongest pressure
gradient along the Southwest coast of Alaska. Over the North
Pacific, a low is forming south of the Eastern Aleutians along the
periphery of a sharp baroclinic zone with the associated surge of
warm air advection forming an impressive baroclinic leaf on
satellite imagery. This low is going to be a major factor in
weather across Southern Alaska through Monday, bringing a wide
range of impactful weather to the region.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

The numerical models are in excellent agreement with the large
scale pattern through the middle of next week. They are also
in very good agreement with the track of the aforementioned North
Pacific low moving into Southern Alaska today through Monday as
well as a near storm force front moving into the western Bering
Sea Sunday night and Monday. Although they are in good agreement,
there are still significant challenges with the storm moving into
Southern Alaska in relation to the models and the small details.
The biggest challenges will be precipitation type across parts of
the region as warm air pushes north and erodes the cold air which
has been in place for the past couple weeks. This forecast favors
the hi-res models for winds and precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Snow showers have moved away from the terminal this
morning, but steady snow is expected to return this evening and
early tonight. However, southeast winds will increase overnight
and will eventually allow for enough warm air to change
precipitation to periods of rain mixed with snow heading into
Monday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

The weak baroclinic boundary moving across Southcentral this
morning is the beginning of a significant pattern shift which
will bring windy and wet continues across Southcentral through
early week.

As the upper ridge retreats east today the long wave trough over
the eastern Bering Sea digs and sets up broad southerly flow
across Southcentral tonight which continues through Monday. At
the surface, a moderately strong low moves north across the Ak Pen
late this afternoon and into Southwest Alaska tonight. While its
associated frontal trough moves into the western Gulf this
afternoon and into Southcentral tonight before exiting to the east
late Monday. The moisture will surge north across Southcentral
with the onset of strong southerly flow aloft and advancing
surface front. Significant snowfall is expected across the
Susitna Valley and Talkeetna mountains tonight and Monday along
with Valdez area and the coastal mountains. Significant warming
will accompany the front and will give rise to widespread mixed
precipitation types across the Kenai Peninsula and Cook Inlet
regions this evening. Snow should mix or become predominately rain
across the Anchorage Bowl and portions of the Matanuska Valley
Monday. Weak cold advection on the backside of front brings a
parting shot of snow across Cook Inlet/Anchorage Bowl Monday
evening.

Pressure gradients will be intensifying through this afternoon and
tonight with the approach of front and will generate generally
windy conditions along with brisk/strong gap flows (Turnagain
Arm, Portage Valley, Knik River Wind, Copper River, etc.) which
will hold into Monday afternoon. Cold advection Monday
night brings westerly gales to the western Gulf and strong
outflow winds to the eastern Kenai Peninsula and Western Prince
William Sound.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

A progressive pattern is on tap this forecast period. The longwave
pattern features a trough axis over the Aleutians along with a
shortwave north of Toksook Bay and a separate cluster of energy
approaching the AKPEN. As of 13z or 4 AM AKST there is a line of
showers on the Bethel radar (PABC) from Eek to Russian Mission.
The orientation of the showers on PABC doesn't match any of the
projected QPF fields for that time. Right off the bat, we know
there are some level of uncertainty. But as the shortwave lifts,
expect the showers to follow. There will be a brief lull before
the next wave of precipitation. A second shot of moisture will
continue to push towards Southwest today as a warm front moves
into the region. Temperatures in some locations may reach the
upper 30s and possibly even 40F. This system will track up
Kuskokwim Bay and the west side of the Kuskokwim Mountains late
tonight into Monday morning. There is high confidence that this
will be a stratiform event but there is some uncertainty about the
transition time between rain and snow. At this time, did not issue
any winter weather headlines.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

The forecast period commences with a decaying low near the
Pribilof Islands. This system will slowly push northward. A new
surface low will cross 50N this morning and is head directly for
the AKPEN. The models have a good fetch of sub-tropical moisture
associated with this system. The other attribute that jumps out
about this storm is all of the warm air advection associated with
it. For the Eastern Aleutians expecting all rain. West down the
Chain, a ridge axis will move over Adak and will be over Unalaska
Monday morning. Thirdly, a strong front moves into the western
Bering and Aleutians late Sunday night, traversing much of the
Bering by Tuesday morning. This system is expected to bring gale
force winds and rough seas to the region.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
A change to a warmer pattern remains in store for the beginning
of next week. On Monday, a low pressure system approaches the AK
Pen from the North Pacific and then moves into the eastern Bering
Sea. This system is accompanied by a lot of warm air, which makes
precipitation type a challenge for Monday's forecast. Models have
been somewhat inconsistent with the track of this low as well,
finally coming into some agreement with this morning's 18Z run.
Current forecast keeps a more southerly flow aloft, which
indicates a greater chance for precip reaching the lee side of the
mountains. This will also prevent a true snow-eater Chinook in
Southcentral, but some liquid precipitation is expected with
temperatures rising into the 30s at the surface.

On Tuesday and Wednesday, a short wave ridge will move through the
region, temporarily clearing skies first in the eastern Bering,
then over the mainland. This ridge is followed by a series of low
pressure systems that move into the central and western Bering.
Models forecasts have been very inconsistent on these next
systems, so there is little confidence in specific storm tracks
and timing past Wednesday. Overall though, an active pattern
looks to persist over the Bering and Western AK while high
pressure builds over Southcentral leading to quieter weather by
the middle of next week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory 145.
MARINE...Storm 177. Gale 150 173 175 176 178 185 411 412 413 119
130 131 132 351 352.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JA
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PJS
LONG TERM...KVP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
146 PM AKST SUN FEB 11 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0755 AM     SNOW             GIRDWOOD                60.94N 149.18W
02/11/2018  M2.0 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

0900 AM     SNOW             5 SW ANCHORAGE          61.16N 149.98W
02/11/2018  M1.5 INCH                           AK   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

0950 AM     SNOW             2 SE EAGLE RIVER        61.30N 149.52W
02/11/2018  M2.8 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

1023 AM     SNOW             1 E RABBIT CREEK        61.08N 149.78W
02/11/2018  M0.5 INCH                           AK   PUBLIC

1109 AM     SNOW             5 ESE WASILLA           61.56N 149.32W
02/11/2018  M3.0 INCH                           AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

0100 PM     SNOW             NW POTTER MARSH         61.05N 149.79W
02/11/2018  M0.8 INCH                           AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KOBRIEN