Brisk Wind Advisory 7, NWS Anchorage, AK

625 
FZAK52 PAFC 100045
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
345 PM AKST Fri Feb 9 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-101300-
345 PM AKST Fri Feb 9 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A front in the eastern Bering moves inland Sat afternoon. A 972 mb
low 300 nm southeast of Adak moves 100 nm northwest of Cold Bay at
992 mb Sat afternoon and then moves over Gambell at 998 mb Sun 
afternoon. A front begins to lift from the south over the central 
Aleutians Sun afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-101300-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
345 PM AKST Fri Feb 9 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas
18 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.MON...W wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ155-101300-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
345 PM AKST Fri Feb 9 2018

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
12 ft.
.SAT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ160-101300-
Bristol Bay-
345 PM AKST Fri Feb 9 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 45 kt becoming SE 35 kt after midnight. Seas in
ice free waters 10 ft. Snow.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.

$$

PKZ165-101300-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
345 PM AKST Fri Feb 9 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt except 30 kt from Port Moller E. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ170-101300-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
345 PM AKST Fri Feb 9 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ171-101300-
Unalaska Bay-
345 PM AKST Fri Feb 9 2018

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. Gusts to 30 kt in
the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Gusts to 30 kt during the evening. Seas 
2 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-101300-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
345 PM AKST Fri Feb 9 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ173-101300-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
345 PM AKST Fri Feb 9 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ174-101300-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
345 PM AKST Fri Feb 9 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt becoming N 20 kt after midnight. Seas
14 ft. Rain.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ175-101300-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
345 PM AKST Fri Feb 9 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...S wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ176-101300-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
345 PM AKST Fri Feb 9 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...S wind 45 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ177-101300-
Adak to Kiska-
345 PM AKST Fri Feb 9 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ178-101300-
Kiska to Attu-
345 PM AKST Fri Feb 9 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.MON...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ179-101300-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
345 PM AKST Fri Feb 9 2018

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SW 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ180-101300-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
345 PM AKST Fri Feb 9 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 45 kt becoming SE 35 kt after midnight. Seas in
ice free waters 14 ft subsiding to 9 ft after midnight.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 12 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft.

$$

PKZ181-101300-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
345 PM AKST Fri Feb 9 2018

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Snow.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 25 kt.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 kt.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt.

$$

PKZ185-101300-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
345 PM AKST Fri Feb 9 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...NE 15 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

116 
FZAK52 PAFC 101240
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
340 AM AKST Sat Feb 10 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-110115-
340 AM AKST Sat Feb 10 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 981 mb low 170 nm South of Dutch Harbor moves to 50 nm South of
Kipnuk at 1002 mb Sun morning then shifts to 100 nm North of
Gambell by Mon morning. The associated front trails to a 993 mb 
low 300 nm South of Dutch Harbor Sun afternoon. This low moves 
onshore near Cape Newenham at 1002 mb Mon morning as its 
associated front extends across the Southern Alaska Peninsula 
through Mon morning.

$$

PKZ150-110115-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
340 AM AKST Sat Feb 10 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.MON...W wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ155-110115-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
340 AM AKST Sat Feb 10 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ160-110115-
Bristol Bay-
340 AM AKST Sat Feb 10 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.WED...SE wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.

$$

PKZ165-110115-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
340 AM AKST Sat Feb 10 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ170-110115-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
340 AM AKST Sat Feb 10 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt becoming NW in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...S wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ171-110115-
Unalaska Bay-
340 AM AKST Sat Feb 10 2018

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 10 kt becoming N in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft
building to 5 ft in the afternoon. Rain and snow.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-110115-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
340 AM AKST Sat Feb 10 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt becoming N 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...S wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ173-110115-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
340 AM AKST Sat Feb 10 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ174-110115-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
340 AM AKST Sat Feb 10 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ175-110115-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
340 AM AKST Sat Feb 10 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...S wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ176-110115-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
340 AM AKST Sat Feb 10 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...S wind 45 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ177-110115-
Adak to Kiska-
340 AM AKST Sat Feb 10 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ178-110115-
Kiska to Attu-
340 AM AKST Sat Feb 10 2018

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt becoming S 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.MON...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 28 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ179-110115-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
340 AM AKST Sat Feb 10 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SW 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ180-110115-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
340 AM AKST Sat Feb 10 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.

$$

PKZ181-110115-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
340 AM AKST Sat Feb 10 2018

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 kt.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt.

$$

PKZ185-110115-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
340 AM AKST Sat Feb 10 2018

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...N 20 kt W
of Saint Matthew Island. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...S wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
423 PM AKST Thu Feb 8 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A ridge of high pressure over Southcentral and Gulf continues to
bring sunny skies, outflow winds to areas of the Gulf Coast, and
patchy fog inland. The most significant fog occurred earlier this
morning over much of the Anchorage Bowl and into the Matanuska
Valley where patchy dense fog persisted into early this
afternoon. This ridge is beginning to slowly shift off to the
east in advance of a frontal system that is bringing rain and
strong southeasterly winds into the AKpen. This front is
associated with a wrapped up low moving northward through the
Central Bering. You can see this system beginning to elongate as a
developing triple point well south of the AKpen begins tracking
to the northeast, which will force the gale force front into the
Gulf for Friday.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The models are in generally good synoptic agreement in the early
term with the developing of the triple point North Pacific low
that will move into the Gulf on Friday. Beginning Friday evening,
the NAM becomes a slight outlier in bringing the front faster to
the North Gulf Coast, which was left out in favor of the slower
GFS that was closer to the current forecast. Over the Bering there
are also some timing differences in how quickly to bring a gale
force low in behind the departing front, where the GFS is instead
the fastest solution. The forecast out west also favors the slower
solutions, which in this case was the NAM.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Fog and stratus filtering around the ANC bowl will continue
to be the primary forecast concern into Friday. With similar
conditions expected late tonight, fog/stratus (which could be LIFR
again) is expected to redevelop around midnight tonight. A front
approaching Cook Inlet early Friday morning will the bring
increased flow down-inlet starting around 15z Friday morning
which should help scour out any fog that develops a bit earlier
than occurred today.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Fog and low clouds, mainly around the Anchorage to Palmer
corridor, will be a challenge again tonight as steep inversions
remain in place and nothing is fundamentally different than last
night when areas of dense fog again developed. A light southeast
wind moving through Turnagain Arm may help to minimize the extent
of the fog across the southern parts of the Anchorage Bowl
tonight. As is often the case, though, overall confidence in the
details of fog in upper Cook Inlet tonight is low.
 Once the fog burns off Friday morning, another sunny day will
take hold across the region. Clouds will be slowly increasing from
south to north from Friday night into Saturday associated with a
front entering the southern Gulf. Kodiak will see a rain/snow mix
quickly turn to all rain Friday night. This front will move
northward along the Kenai Peninsula during the day Saturday,
though the vast majority of precipitation will fall as rain on the
Gulf-side of the mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
(Tonight through Saturday)

Increasing temperatures and wind gust potential will be the theme
for most locations over the next 36 hours. Currently, a long-wave
trough dominates much of the Bering, with several low pressure
systems ejecting north through central portions of the sea.
Meanwhile, an area of high pressure will continue to slide east
through Saturday, allowing a surface front to approach the coast.
This front has a good 850 mb jet with it, which looks to
strengthen to 75 knots. While all of this energy won't mix down,
some of it will. The highest surface wind gusts are expected
along the coast and higher elevations, where some gusts over 65
mph will probably occur.

Precipitation will be fairly widespread along the front and
coastal locations, with snow initially being the predominant
type. With continued warm advection temperatures at the surface
will eventually warm sufficiently for a change over to rain to
occur. When this occurs may be a little tricky to time for the
coastal Kuskokwim Delta, where at least a short period of blowing
snow may occur. The warmer air will also make it far enough inland
to allow for a changeover to occur for mush of the interior, but,
it may take until Saturday to do so.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
(Tonight through Saturday)

More of the same looks to continue through the end of the week, as
multiple low pressure systems move from northward through central
portions of the Bering. A surface front moving through eastern
portions of the Bering Sea and AKpen will bring warm air,
widespread precipitation (mostly rain), and some strong winds to
the region. Right now, the strongest winds look to encompass much
of Bristol Bay, stretching northwestward towards Nunivak Island.
Here, storm force winds are likely, with a few gusts almost
reaching hurricane force.

For the western half of the area, colder air on the backside of
the low will allow for cooler temperatures to dominate, with a
more showery precipitation coverage, most of which will be snow
showers. Winds will also be much lighter compared to locations
further east.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The early part of next week is beginning to comes into better
focus as models are becoming consistent enough to see a reasonable
track and timing for major features. There is still a lot of
uncertainty for the second half of next week however as the
pattern will become more progressive than it has been in a number
of weeks.

Sunday and Monday will see much warmer temperatures around
Southcentral Alaska with many areas reaching above freezing.
Precipitation is a bit more likely for Monday but downsloping may
keep the majority relegated to the coastal areas. The interesting
part of this forecast is that, while lower levels are showing
downsloping, there is enough south-to-southwest flow aloft over
Southcentral that it could end up bringing in some precipitation
to the Lee side of the mountains where it typically remains dry.
The precipitation-type will also be a challenge with the potential
for a mix of different precip types. Beyond Tuesday, temperatures
should remain mild, but not as warm as Sunday and Monday.

On Sunday, the low in the Bering Sea will have occluded and
washed out a bit of the warm air aloft over Southwest Alaska.
Monday will see another pulse of warm air in conjunction with the
next low which is projected to move through Bristol Bay and then
inland. There will be a sharp delineation between the warm and
cold sectors with this low with areas west of the low remaining
cold and east of the low warming up. This continues to cause
precipitation-type challenges for Monday.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Storms 150 160 180. Gales 120 130-132 136 137-139 155
165 180 185 351 352 412-414.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DEK
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...AD
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PD
LONG TERM...EZ