Alert archive / Minnesota / Special Weather Statements in 2018

Special Weather Statement, NWS Aberdeen, SD

August 6, 2018Traverse County, Minnesota

NWS Aberdeen, SD issued this special weather statement at Aug 6, 2018, 3:36 PM CDT for Traverse County, Minnesota. It was in force for 24 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Aug 6, 2018, 3:36 PM CDT (20:36 UTC)
Expired
Aug 6, 2018, 4:00 PM CDT
In force
24 min
Issued by
NWS Aberdeen, SD

County Traverse County, MN

The radar

The Aberdeen radar (KABR), 166 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:38 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Aberdeen, SD (KABR), launched 12:00Z, 8.6 hours before the alert went out and 188 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Aberdeen, SD at 12:00Z on 2018-08-06Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 115 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Aberdeen, SD at 12:00Z on 2018-08-06The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -51 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
115 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-176 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1491 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
27 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-51 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
-35 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
-0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Aberdeen, SD wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Aug 6, 2:04 PM CDT, 1 hour 32 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 6, 2:04 PM CDT, 1 hour 32 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
204 PM CDT Mon Aug 6 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 204 PM CDT Mon Aug 6 2018

Pcpn chances remain the biggest challenge through tonight. The
latest models, both CAM and non-CAM suggest a couple areas of
heightened shower/storm activity into the evening and overnight
hours. The first area is over the northeast CWA.  This is where the
models and latest SPC meso data suggest a moisture/instability axis
will continue to set up through early evening. 88D currently shows
activity over this region, and suspect isold/sct activity will
continue into the evening hours. Shear is pretty weak, but
instability per MLCAPEs approaching or exceeding 1k J/kg suggests at
least weak to moderate instability to work with.

The next area of concern is southwest and south central South
Dakota. It appears that convection forming over the Black Hills will
spread out into the plains, and then move across the southern third
of the state this evening and tonight, perhaps forming into a
relatively small MCS in the process. This activity could feed off of
better deep layer shear per strong H5 winds across Nebraska and far
southern South Dakota. The best chance for isolated svr weather this
evening would be along and south of I90.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 204 PM CDT Mon Aug 6 2018

Mostly dry with above normal temperatures will be the rule this
period. The overall 500mb pattern shows low pressure over north
central Canada, with a trough extending across the northeastern
third of the nation. An additional low would be set up off the
Pacific Coast. In between, high pressure dominates the southern half
of the nation, with a ridge extending into British Columbia.

The steady 500 mb high over the southwestern states will push its
ridge into the Northern and Central Plains Friday night into Sunday,
before the entire ridge becomes supressed as the Pacific low moves
across the Pacific Northwest.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Mon Aug 6 2018

VFR conditions expected overnight with some mid and high clouds.
Some scattered showers/storms expected to develop this afternoon
bringing some low clouds and may affect KPIR/KATY. Possibility
these storms could reach KABR however not enough confidence to
include in TAF.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...ALD
Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 6, 9:34 AM CDT, 6 hours 2 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
934 AM CDT Mon Aug 6 2018

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-071445-
Traverse-Big Stone-Corson-Campbell-McPherson-Brown-Marshall-Roberts-
Walworth-Edmunds-Day-Dewey-Potter-Faulk-Spink-Clark-Codington-Grant-
Hamlin-Deuel-Stanley-Sully-Hughes-Hyde-Hand-Jones-Lyman-Buffalo-
934 AM CDT Mon Aug 6 2018 /834 AM MDT Mon Aug 6 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for west central Minnesota,
central South Dakota, north central South Dakota and northeast
South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected across the region
this afternoon and tonight. The threat of severe weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

tdk

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Aug 6, 2:15 PM CDT, 1 hour 21 minutes before
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Special weather statement, Aug 6, 3:15 PM CDT, 21 minutes before
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Special weather statement, Aug 6, 3:36 PM CDT, 0 minutes before
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The office that day

Everything else NWS Aberdeen, SD issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 6, 2:15 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementABRRoberts60 min
Aug 6, 5:11 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementABRJones34 min
Aug 6, 5:18 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementABRCorson27 min
Aug 6, 5:24 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementABRJones36 min
Aug 6, 5:44 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementABRJones31 min
Aug 6, 5:59 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningABRJones31 min
Aug 6, 6:08 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementABRJones37 min
Aug 6, 6:21 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementABRLyman39 min
Aug 6, 6:35 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementABRLyman25 min
Aug 6, 6:38 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningABRLyman37 min
Aug 6, 6:51 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementABRLyman24 min
Aug 6, 3:15 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementABRTraverse45 min
Aug 6, 3:52 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementABRBig Stone38 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Minnesota, 2018Every special weather statement in 2018

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.