Severe Thunderstorm Warning 80, NWS Aberdeen, SD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
708 PM CDT Sat Jun 16 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 708 PM CDT Sat Jun 16 2018

00z aviation discussion updated below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Sat Jun 16 2018

A warm front is draped over the region this afternoon, stretching
from just north of Ortonville southwestward to Pierre. Storms will
fire along and southeast of this boundary as it pushes north and
east this evening and a llj helps break the CAP. Best chances for
severe convection remain across northeast SD and west central MN
where shear and CAPE are ample. CAMs solutions have been less than
stellar today, but tend to agree with onset time of discrete cells
around 6 pm CDT.

As the low pushes northeast into South Dakota overnight, the main
concern will turn to the potential for heavy rain and flooding. The
tropical airmass is well-primed for 2 to 3 inch per hour rates in
thunderstorms, especially if they set up along the theta-e ridge and
begin training. Have a Flash Flood Watch out for the potential from
south central SD to west central MN.

Cooler air will move in behind the low on Sunday with highs
struggling to reach 70 from the James valley west. Thunderstorms
will still be around in the morning, and stratus is likely to linger
through the day. The threat for storms to produce stronger winds in
the caa environment in the early morning is possible, as well.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Sat Jun 16 2018

Southwest flow aloft will persist over the northern plains through
mid week as a closed low spins over the northwestern CONUS. By the
later half of the week and weekend, the upper low pressure system
makes a gradual, disorganized progression east/northeast across the
plains states. This overall pattern would suggest a trend toward an
active weather week with multiple chances for precipitation in the
long term period. Of course model consistency and consensus in any
details is lacking and therefore forecaster confidence in
timing/placement of POPS remains low as well. Models do hint at
Tuesday/Wednesday being the only dry/POP free period in the long
term as surface high pressure and slightly drier air working into
the area. Otherwise, moisture (well above normal PWATs) and CAPE
return Thursday and persist into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 708 PM CDT Sat Jun 16 2018

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to affect all airports
tonight into Sunday. The storms may be severe along with heavy rain.
Otherwise, expect MVFR conditions in thunderstorms with lower
ceilings MVFR/IFR moving into the region tonight and Sunday.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for SDZ006>008-010-011-
     016>021-033>037-045-048.

MN...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for MNZ039-046.

&&

UPDATE...Mohr
SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Serr
AVIATION...Mohr

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
546 AM CDT Sat Jun 16 2018

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-171100-
Traverse-Big Stone-Corson-Campbell-McPherson-Brown-Marshall-
Roberts-Walworth-Edmunds-Day-Dewey-Potter-Faulk-Spink-Clark-
Codington-Grant-Hamlin-Deuel-Stanley-Sully-Hughes-Hyde-Hand-Jones-
Lyman-Buffalo-
546 AM CDT Sat Jun 16 2018 /446 AM MDT Sat Jun 16 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Minnesota, central South Dakota, north central South Dakota, and
northeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Early morning storms will move across northeast South Dakota.
Widespread severe weather is not anticipated though we can not
rule out an isolated severe storm or two, with the risk being
mainly in the form of hail and gusty winds.

The main threat for severe weather appears to be highlighted
between 5 PM CDT this afternoon and 11 PM CDT tonight, in the form
of large hail, damaging winds and possibly a tornado or two. The
severe weather threat currently looks to reside east of a line
from roughly Leola to Redfield. By late evening into the late
night hours, the severe weather threat transitions to heavy rain
and a potential flooding risk.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

A severe weather threat of heavy rain exists on Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be requested. Weather spotters are
encouraged to submit reports to the National Weather Service in
Aberdeen. The public can submit reports on our web page, Facebook
page, or our Twitter feed.

Dorn

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
623 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2018

SDZ020-022-023-170015-
Hamlin SD-Deuel SD-Codington SD-
623 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN DEUEL...EASTERN
HAMLIN AND SOUTHEASTERN CODINGTON COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM CDT...

At 623 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Lake Albert, or 12 miles west of Estelline, moving northeast at 30
mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Estelline, Castlewood, Lake Norden, Hayti, Toronto, Brandt, Lake
Poinsett, Dempster, Stone Bridge, Poinsett Colony, Lake Albert and
Claremont Colony.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for northeastern
South Dakota.

LAT...LON 4454 9673 4454 9732 4455 9740 4487 9695
      4461 9653
TIME...MOT...LOC 2323Z 239DEG 24KT 4452 9714

Telken

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
624 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2018

SDZ034>036-170015-
Hughes SD-Sully SD-Hyde SD-
624 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN SULLY...WEST CENTRAL
HYDE AND NORTHEASTERN HUGHES COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM CDT...

At 624 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Harrold, or 15 miles southeast of Onida, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern
Sully...west central Hyde and northeastern Hughes Counties.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
central South Dakota.

LAT...LON 4448 9987 4454 9995 4478 9972 4465 9950
TIME...MOT...LOC 2324Z 223DEG 17KT 4457 9983

Serr

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
659 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2018

SDZ021-023-170030-
Deuel SD-Grant SD-
659 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN DEUEL AND SOUTHEASTERN
GRANT COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM CDT...

At 659 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Oakwood State Park, or near Clear Lake, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Clear Lake, Gary, Revillo, La Bolt, Altamont, Albee, Lake Cochrane
Rec Area, Tunerville, Moritz and Lake Alice.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for northeastern
South Dakota.

LAT...LON 4467 9652 4482 9688 4517 9662 4510 9645
      4473 9645
TIME...MOT...LOC 2359Z 215DEG 35KT 4485 9671

Telken