Alert archive / South Dakota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2018

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 47, NWS Aberdeen, SD

June 1, 20184 counties in South Dakota

NWS Aberdeen, SD issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jun 1, 2018, 6:23 PM MDT for 4 counties in South Dakota. It was in force for 67 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Jun 1, 2018, 6:23 PM MDT (00:23 UTC)
Expired: Jun 1, 2018, 7:30 PM MDT
In force: 67 min
Issued by: NWS Aberdeen, SD
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.25 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

Counties Dewey County, SD, Potter County, SD, Sully County, SD, Walworth County, SD

The radar

The Aberdeen radar (KABR), 149 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:23 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Jun 1, 1:53 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	7 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Aberdeen, SD (KABR), launched 00:00Z, 0.4 hours before the alert went out and 147 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 881 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -7 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 2593 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 35 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 101 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 192 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 3.4

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Aberdeen, SD wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jun 1, 5:46 PM MDT, 37 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 1, 5:46 PM MDT, 37 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
646 PM CDT Fri Jun 1 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 642 PM CDT Fri Jun 1 2018

Forecast is on track this evening with a swath of storm occurring
in north central SD and spreading south and east. Still some
question as to coverage as the system treks east, but will leave
pops as they are for now.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 134 PM CDT Fri Jun 1 2018

Forecast challenges this afternoon through Saturday afternoon
mainly revolve around severe thunderstorm chances from late this
afternoon through late tonight.

Currently, skies are partly to mostly sunny and temperatures are
warming through the 80s, and in some areas into the 90s. Winds are
strong from the southeast at 15 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

Per "right now" upper air analysis, there remains a mid-level warm
air capping inversion (EML) of +11C to +13C at 700hpa over western
SoDak, although a ribbon of 3500+ J/kg of ML CAPE has already
developed up into western/swrn SoDak. A discernible short-wave is
now showing up on water vapor imagery (far nern corner of CO) moving
north-northeastward toward the northern plains region. Attached to
it, the Rap Refresh model has a 70knot speed max aloft also lifting
into Nebraska and South Dakota, with the left exit region aligning
over a lee-side trof positioned across south central South Dakota.
Some agitated cu/initial updrafts appear to be developing over that
area as well. Effective deep-layer bulk shear values of 40+ knots
still reside across eastern Wyoming and Montana. The surface cold
frontal boundary of interest is currently situated from near the
Montana/North Dakota border down into northern/northeastern Wyoming,
with a lee-side trof/pseudo warm front extending down from near
Buffalo, SD to between Chadron and Valentine, NE.

Later this afternoon and evening all these features are progged to
translate over into western and central South Dakota. There is that
area of agitated CU in south central South Dakota, but still
thinking convection should begin initiating, in earnest, between 4
PM CDT and 7 PM CDT along or perhaps just west of the Missouri River
valley. Discrete supercells are expected, initially, with a range of
severe weather types ranging from large hail and damaging winds, to
perhaps an isolated tornado or two. Although, LCL heights may end up
being just a tosh too high to support tornadoes this afternoon.
After 7 PM CDT, the threat area begins to move over toward northeast
South Dakota/west central Minnesota. The potential storm mode begins
to change-over to something more like one or more line(s)/broken
line(s) of storms with the severe threat becoming more of a damaging
wind concern. 0-3km shear vectors (25 to 35 knots) off the Rap13
model do support some potential for qlcs meso-vorticity generation
this evening, should a situation where sufficient cold-pool/shear
interaction can be had. Convection should be exiting the far eastern
zones by early Saturday morning. At that point, the cold front is
well gone, too, leaving the whole forecast area in breezy to windy
northwest winds and temperatures a solid 10 to 20 degrees cooler for
the first half of the weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 134 PM CDT Fri Jun 1 2018

The period begins with the upper level pattern transitioning from
northwest flow on Sunday to ridging by Monday. The building ridge
will bring above normal temperatures into the region, with highs
reaching the mid to upper 80s Monday and Tuesday. Dry conditions are
expected from the second half of the weekend through at least
Tuesday. Shortwaves crossing the region Wednesday through Friday
will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms into the area. Even
with the threat for thunderstorms, temperatures Wednesday through
Friday should remain above average.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 642 PM CDT Fri Jun 1 2018

VFR conditions are expected except in the vicinity of
thunderstorms. Showers and thunderstorms will move east this
evening and will affect all taf sites. Gusty southeast winds will
persist before shifting to the northwest on Saturday. Winds will
be strong and erratic near thunderstorms and outflow boundaries
this evening.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

UPDATE...Wise
SHORT TERM...Dorn
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...Wise

Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 1, 3:27 AM MDT, 14 hours 56 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
427 AM CDT Fri Jun 1 2018

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-020930-
Traverse-Big Stone-Corson-Campbell-McPherson-Brown-Marshall-
Roberts-Walworth-Edmunds-Day-Dewey-Potter-Faulk-Spink-Clark-
Codington-Grant-Hamlin-Deuel-Stanley-Sully-Hughes-Hyde-Hand-Jones-
Lyman-Buffalo-
427 AM CDT Fri Jun 1 2018 /327 AM MDT Fri Jun 1 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Minnesota, central South Dakota, north central South Dakota, and
northeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A strong cold front is expected to spark thunderstorms this
afternoon across central South Dakota, and these storms may push
east during the evening hours. Severe weather is possible, with
large hail and damaging winds being the main threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be requested. Weather spotters are
encouraged to submit reports to the National Weather Service in
Aberdeen. The public can submit reports on our web page, Facebook
page, or our Twitter feed.

LUECK

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jun 1, 5:54 PM MDT, 29 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
654 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     HAIL             3 NNE LITTLE EAGLE      45.72N 100.76W
06/01/2018  E1.00 INCH       CORSON             SD   PUBLIC

            WINDS ESTIMATED AT 65 TO 70 MPH.

&&

JT

Local storm report, Jun 1, 6:07 PM MDT, 16 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
707 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 PM     HAIL             3 WSW INDIAN CREEK REC  45.50N 100.44W
06/01/2018  E1.00 INCH       CORSON             SD   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

SD

Special weather statement, Jun 1, 6:07 PM MDT, 16 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
707 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2018

SDZ033>035-045-048-020100-
Hughes SD-Stanley SD-Sully SD-Lyman SD-Jones SD-
707 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR JONES...SOUTHERN SULLY...
STANLEY...HUGHES AND LYMAN COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM CDT/700 PM MDT/...

At 705 PM CDT/605 PM MDT/, Doppler radar and satellite was tracking
strong outflow winds along a line extending from near Chantier Creek
Recreation Area to near Belvidere. Movement was east at 55 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph out of the west will occur with this
outflow winds. Localized wind gusts to 60 mph may occur.

Locations impacted include...
Pierre, Fort Pierre, Presho, Murdo, Lyman, Blunt, Kennebec, Vivian,
Harrold, Draper, Okaton, Westover, Cedar Creek Rec Area, Fate Dam,
Spring Creek Rec Area, Brown Church, Hayes, Sansarc, Earling Hills
and Van Metre.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT/900
PM MDT/ for central South Dakota.

LAT...LON 4370 9990 4370 10028 4374 10037 4374 10055
      4377 10058 4371 10073 4383 10093 4381 10095
      4385 10106 4417 10105 4417 10116 4470 10114
      4469 9969 4405 9962 4375 9968 4376 9968
      4367 9987
TIME...MOT...LOC 0005Z 277DEG 49KT 4448 10071 4383 10134

SRF

Local storm report, Jun 1, 6:14 PM MDT, 9 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
714 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0704 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 NE HAYES              44.38N 101.02W
06/01/2018  M68 MPH          STANLEY            SD   MESONET

            WINDS ARE FROM AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

&&

SD

Local storm report, Jun 1, 6:17 PM MDT, 6 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
717 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     HAIL             TRAIL CITY              45.47N 100.73W
06/01/2018  M1.50 INCH       CORSON             SD   PUBLIC

&&

JT

Local storm report, Jun 1, 6:19 PM MDT, 4 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
719 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     HAIL             1 SW INDIAN MEMORIAL RE 45.56N 100.50W
06/01/2018  E0.50 INCH       CORSON             SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

            REPORTED AT GRAND RIVER CASINO & RESORT.

&&

SRF

The office that day

Everything else NWS Aberdeen, SD issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 1, 6:00 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ABR	Campbell, Corson, Dewey, Walworth	60 min
Jun 1, 6:07 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	ABR	Hughes, Jones, Lyman, Stanley	53 min
Jun 1, 6:44 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ABR	Campbell, Edmunds, McPherson, Walworth	61 min
Jun 1, 7:03 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	ABR	Hughes, Hyde, Sully	57 min
Jun 1, 7:14 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ABR	Edmunds, Faulk, Hughes, Hyde, Lyman, Potter and 3 more	46 min
Jun 1, 7:36 PM MDT	High Wind Warning	ABR	Brown, Clark, Day, Edmunds, Faulk, Hand and 3 more	110 min
Jun 2, 1:56 AM MDT	Wind Advisory	ABR	Campbell, Corson, Dewey, Hughes, Jones, Lyman and 4 more	16 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in South Dakota, 2018 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2018

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.